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Sherman Frederick
Sherman Frederick is a columnist for Stephens Media. His column appears Sunday in the Opinion section of the Review-Journal. In between Sundays, you can find out what's on his mind here.

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The Reid/Ralston spin -- 'We're still ahead! ... We're still ahead!! ... We're still ahead!!!'

Here's an interesting turn of events.

On Thursday, Oct. 7, Harry Reid campaign pollster Mark Mellman drafted a memo to the campaign faithful to reassure staff and donors to pooh-pooh the polls that came out earlier in the week showing Sharron Angle pulling away from Sen. Reid.

Mellman told Politico that "two of the three were automated polls conducted over the course of one night -- which traditional pollster insist is a less reliable method -- and he pointed out that one-night polls also don't account for the Las Vegas area's large population of night-shift workers, who tend to be union-member Democrats."

Reid advisor Sig Rogich, meanwhile, told Politico that "The momentum is with us in this race. That's according to reliable data that I've heard about. If you look at the structure of those other polls, I think you'll find the numbers are skewed."

The Reid campaign would not show Politico specifics of their polling (surprise, surprise), but insisted the three polls from CNN, Fox and Rasmussen were wrong and their polls were right.

Then, columnist Jon Ralston in his Friday, Oct. 8, column for the Las Vegas Sun (which has yet to publish a discouraging work about Sen. Reid, BTW) parroted a similar spin of Rogich and Mellman.

The first poll of the week by CNN had Angle up 42-40. Flawed said Reid/Mellman/Rogich. Flawed, flawed, said Ralston.

The second poll of the week by Fox News had Angle up 49-46. Flawed, said Reid/Mellman/Rogich. Flawed, flawed, said Ralston.

The last poll of the week by Rasmussen Reports had Angle up 50-46. Flawed, said Reid/Mellman/Rogich. Flawed, flawed, said Ralston.

Ralston said further that public polling is flawed as a rule and the only polling that can be trusted is private polling for unions, business groups and candidates.

And these private polls which he and Rogich have heard about (by talking with each other, perhaps?) show Reid consistently ahead.

Now look, even though my newspaper has done the most polling on the Reid/Angle senate race of any media company, and even though our polls have proven consistently right year-after-year, I think it is good for every voter to look at polls for what they are -- a snapshot of a select group that can scientifically be extrapolated to indicate how people are thinking at the time. Not all polls are created equal. Polls can change. Polls have a margin for error.

It is telling, however, to note that this week, from three independent, scientific polls, voters appeared to gravitate toward Angle. That's seems newsworthy. Unless, of course, you are Harry Reid, Mark Mellman, Sig Rogich and Jon Ralston, who are curiously on the same spin cycle.

But don't take my word for it. Read it for yourself.

Here's the Reid/Mellman/Rogich spin.

Here's the Ralston spin.

Hummmm.

Comments (42)

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42 Responses to "The Reid/Ralston spin -- 'We're still ahead! ... We're still ahead!! ... We're still ahead!!!'"
I forget who said it, "But we can count on the Sun to accurately report on the campaign. Sun, Accurate! MWAAAHAAAHAAAAHAAAAHAAAAHAAAA, even after the election is over and they're takin Harry out to bury, they will still have him up by 3. hahahahahahahahah!
Written by: frank .thompson on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 9:39 PM -- Report abuse
The teaparty can ruin all the primaries it wants. It was the best primary season the Democrats could have hoped for. -Just don't expect moderate people to vote for the teaparty whaco's in the general. Ain't gonna happened. Moderates don't much like the idea of their children being taught the Earth is 6000 years old and that man hunted dinosaurs. Rational people think fossils ARE FOSSILS-- rational moderates do not think evolution is some kind of a leftest, Marxist, commie plot. We think it is science. You are free to worship however you wish-You are NOT free to force your beliefs on my children or my government.
Written by: renostarman on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 10:32 PM -- Report abuse
Just Google "teaparty racism on Google Images and see it for yourself

Written by: renostarman on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 10:36 PM -- Report abuse
Angle talking points for the debate:
And we further stipulate that the teaparty is against health-care, day-care, prenatal care, geriatric care, women's rights, gay rights, African-American rights, Hispanic rights, well all the rights of individuals non white or "non American".
We REAL Americans in the teaparty are against ANY environmental protections what so ever. We will immediately refund the slush fund money extorted from British Petroleum with an apology.
We the GOP wish to further state that logging, mining, and oil exploration in wilderness areas should start immediately. American business should not be hamstrung by regulations; the market will dictate their safe operations in these areas.
We the GOP will end public education.
We the GOP believe in preemptive war; not pre-school. The market dictate whose children deserve to be educated. Other children can go to work as we will lower the legal working age to 7.
Written by: renostarman on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 10:40 PM -- Report abuse
And has the RJ said one bad word about Sharron Angle? And correct me if I'm wrong, but the same Sharron Angle who stole RJ content ! So which is it -- is Sharron Angle (the candidate you support for Senate) a thief, or is the Righthaven lawsuit against her frivolous. Why won't you answer this question? Have your principles taken a backseat to your hatred for Harry Reid? Are you a coward to explain yourself?
Written by: RealTrials on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 10:41 PM -- Report abuse
IF you vote for the GOP you have to either condone or at best ignore:------RNC e-mails, sexually harassed pages, outed CIA agents, Katrina, Gittmo,Abu Grad,warrantless wiretapping, plum defense contracts, and golf junkets, Abramoff. DeLay, Cunningham, Ney, Foley, Lewis, Burns, Stevens, Craig, Vitter, Miller, and Renzi. In one particularly egregious incident, the GOP caucus changed its own rules to allow Tom DeLay to stay on as the House Majority Leader after he’d been indicted. Oh and how bout Ensign? How bout Gibbons? Or Gingrich? From K St to Cunningham to Katrina to CIA operatives being outed to "I can't recall" Alberto to Libby to 911 to the war in Iraq-4400+KIA 30000+ WIA. Halliburton,KBR,Blackwater,Cheney,--I know there is a word limit so I'll stop. But God knows I COULD go on.
IF you can ignore all that and still vote GOP-ya I think you have failed your duty as a citizen of America to be well informed and to make good decisions on who governs us.
Written by: renostarman on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 10:44 PM -- Report abuse
Dear teaparty-I hope you have enjoyed your moment in the sun; frolicking around in your revolutionary hats and carrying signs of Obama, and his family in Nazi uniforms. Many of you actually made it on TV bless your hearts. BUT YOUR 15 MINUTES ARE UP; As this poll illustrates. All of the pundits who have predicted a GOP sweep in November have overlooked one important thing-you conservatives have kicked moderate Republicans to the curb-you insult them with the moniker-Rino-and consider them traitor's. How are moderate Republicans going to vote? Think moderate Republicans want women back in the kitchen? Think moderate Republicans want text books rewritten with evolution removed? Think moderate Republicans want prayer in school? Whose prayers? Think moderate Republicans are watching g beck? Think moderate Republicans agree with the "lemonade from lemons" statement? Moderate Republicans are not going to vote for Angle-and you in the teaparty have yourselves to thank for that.
Written by: renostarman on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 10:47 PM -- Report abuse
I am not here supporting Reid or illegal’s. I am saying to teabaggers what needs to be said. That movement is total travesty. Clowns running around in funny hats carrying AR15's to town hall meetings and disrupting what should have been a civil discourse. Giving us those memorable quotes like "keep the government out of Medicare". Making and displaying racist's posters and THEN looking us in the eye and telling us they are not bigots. Now is that a false statement? If you think it is--you didn't watch the news last year. If you want your children taught that fossils are a test of our faith and that man hunted dinosaurs-put them in a private school and brainwash them-don't think for a second I'm going to let that happen without an argument. This ain't about taxes or Harry Reid-It whether or not we let the far religious Right gain enough power to change of system of government and education
Written by: renostarman on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 10:50 PM -- Report abuse
I am not here supporting Reid or illegal’s. I am saying to teabaggers what needs to be said. That movement is total travesty. Clowns running around in funny hats carrying AR15's to town hall meetings and disrupting what should have been a civil discourse. Giving us those memorable quotes like "keep the government out of Medicare". Making and displaying racist's posters and THEN looking us in the eye and telling us they are not bigots. Now is that a false statement? If you think it is--you didn't watch the news last year. If you want your children taught that fossils are a test of our faith and that man hunted dinosaurs-put them in a private school and brainwash them-don't think for a second I'm going to let that happen without an argument. This ain't about taxes or Harry Reid-It whether or not we let the far religious Right gain enough power to change of system of government and education
Written by: renostarman on Saturday, Oct. 09, 2010 at 11:08 PM -- Report abuse
REDSTARMAN, please seek help before you are totally consumed.
Written by: frank .thompson on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 12:13 AM -- Report abuse
Gee, RenoLSDman, for someone who's "not here supporting Reid or illegal’s", you sure posted a lot of words supporting Reid.

Go figure, huh?
Written by: Athos on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:15 AM -- Report abuse
Desperate men, at desperate times. It's not about party affiliation. It's about power.

And getting rid of this crook, Harry Reid....it's about time!
Written by: Athos on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:17 AM -- Report abuse
Birthers, baggers, or bigots deserve no respect or response.
Written by: renostarman on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:17 AM -- Report abuse
Birthers, baggers, or bigots deserve no respect or response.
Written by: renostarman on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:17 AM -- Report abuse
the teaparty vision of America was illuminated by the flames of the burning farm in Tennessee. What a great idea privatize everything! Maybe we should put credit card readers in police cars and on ambulances and we can just swipe for emergencies.
Written by: renostarman on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:17 AM -- Report abuse
the teaparty vision of America was illuminated by the flames of the burning farm in Tennessee. What a great idea privatize everything! Maybe we should put credit card readers in police cars and on ambulances and we can just swipe for emergencies.
Written by: renostarman on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:17 AM -- Report abuse
I'm not letting bigots, homophobes, or the wacked out religious right-who are just "waitin for the rapture" to gain power in my country without a battle. The teaparty IS funded by John Birch(who now call themselves "libertarians") billionaires, the teaparty is homophobic, the teaparty is racist. period.
Written by: renostarman on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:19 AM -- Report abuse
I'm not letting bigots, homophobes, or the wacked out religious right-who are just "waitin for the rapture" to gain power in my country without a battle. The teaparty IS funded by John Birch(who now call themselves "libertarians") billionaires, the teaparty is homophobic, the teaparty is racist. period.
Written by: renostarman on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:19 AM -- Report abuse
Women: do you really want to told your rape was "Gods plan". Father's:Do you want "creation science" taught to your children instead of evolution? Parents: do you want your children being instructed on what to pray in public schools? Moderate's: do you really think gays in the military or getting married is a problem so insidious that it will"ruin" America? THAT'S WHAT THIS ELECTION IS ABOUT! Make NO mistake this ain't about to much spending-It's the last gasp of the religious-rights attempt to force it's beliefs onto us.
Written by: renostarman on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 3:21 AM -- Report abuse
I noticed none of the commenters challenged Sherman's theory that Ralston is part of the Demcoratic spin machine.

Thanks for agreeing with Sherman.

He hit it right on the nail.
Written by: SgtRock on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 4:16 AM -- Report abuse
The RJ blogs have become a one-trick-pony for the GOP; and a sad one at that. While Sharron Angle is flip-flopping on Social Security, veteran's benefits, healthcare and various other idiot schemes that have voters turning away; the RJ searches for polls favoring her. All in desperate hopes that if they can convince you she's ahead, you will become sheep, switch over, and vote for her.

The polls are as skewed as Sharron. The majority of us (registered Democrats and Independents) put Harry Reid in for a reason and we want to keep him there. When some GOP idiot calls me on the phone to "Ask just a few questions," then try selling Sharron; or when they come to my door, begging me to tell them who I'm voting for; I either hang up the phone or close the door. Most of us are tired of the begging and lying and flip-flopping. I'm one of the silent votes that don't show on the polls but will be voting at the real polls.

Now post some blogs of substance or people will be turning away from you like they're doing from the the GOP begging.
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 6:32 AM -- Report abuse
Sharron Angle finally restated her position. Nowshe's for bigger government again. Nowshe's for saving Veteran's benefits. Nowshe's for healthcare benefits. Nowshe's for Social Security. Now do you people understand? Now who are you going to vote for?
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 6:45 AM -- Report abuse
The RJ blogs have become a one-trick-pony for the GOP; and a sad one at that. While Sharron Angle is flip-flopping on Social Security, veteran's benefits, healthcare and various other idiot schemes that have voters turning away; the RJ searches for polls favoring her. All in desperate hopes that if they can convince you she's ahead, you will become sheep, switch over, and vote for her.
The polls are as skewed as Sharron. The majority of us (registered Democrats and Independents) put Harry Reid in for a reason and we want to keep him there. When some GOP idiot calls me on the phone to "Ask just a few questions," then try selling Sharron; or when they come to my door, begging me to tell them who I'm voting for; I either hang up the phone or close the door. Most of us are tired of the begging and lying and flip-flopping. I'm one of the silent votes that don't show on the polls but will be voting at the real polls.
Now post some blogs of substance or people will be turning away from you like they're doing from the GOP begging.
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 7:32 AM -- Report abuse
Sharron Angle finally REstated her position. Now she's for bigger government again. Now she's for saving Veteran's benefits. Now she's for healthcare benefits. Now she's for Social Security. Now do you people understand? Now who are you going to vote for?
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 8:39 AM -- Report abuse
Jerry, is that like Reid flip flopping his stance on illegal immigration?
Written by: Deep.Thoughts on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 10:43 AM -- Report abuse
Another thing jerry stop complining you can go over to the liberal rag the las vegas sun you can be happy reading all the liberal coments in your very own lala land.
Written by: Cadusha on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 11:44 AM -- Report abuse
I was recently banned from the LV Sun site by the web guy, Levi Chronister. The reason he gave? I am a rabble-rouser.

EVERYONE should go to the LV Sun sight and simply offer your opinion on the stream of angle bashing stories, and the Ralston fire hose of Angle bashing.

If you do that, you will be a rabble-rouser too, and may wear the badge of oppressed speech as I now do.
Written by: gbigs on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 11:49 AM -- Report abuse
The sun is horrible. Probably the worst newspaper since the national enquirer. At least the enquirer has interesting photos. I don't know anyone who reads that newspaper besides that creepy guy Jon Ralston.
Written by: Deep.Thoughts on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 12:26 PM -- Report abuse
Naw, creepy Jon Ralston has company(at being creepy??): Reid, Rogich, and Raggio.
Written by: Union Dude on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 1:08 PM -- Report abuse
Reno, How's life in that van, down by the river? How 'bout that neighbor of yours? What... you don't know Jack Friggin Squat?!
Written by: Dave.Mogstad on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 1:10 PM -- Report abuse
Democratic majority leader in the first session of Congress will enact a massive Amnesty for all illegal aliens. The costs to pay for this bill will be the taxpayers burden, as its always been. As there is no disclosure of the painful amount of money, as no administration has had the backbone to tell the absolute truth. That for decades each president and his incoherent representatives have ever found nerve to release any true accounting. Senator Reid will doom this country to unimaginable overpopulation, expenditures even while we have 15 million legal workers, cannot find a job. What you decide in November, will either be the success of the Tea Party who will not entertain any type of Amnesty whatsoever and demand that Washington secure the open border.
Written by: Brittanicus on Sunday, Oct. 10, 2010 at 4:52 PM -- Report abuse
I wish Sue Lowden was the GOP candidate but even Sharon Angle's dog is a better choice than Reid. ANYBODY BUT REID!!! VOTE!!!
Written by: SweetSue on Monday, Oct. 11, 2010 at 3:04 AM -- Report abuse
Jerry, is that like Reid flip flopping his stance on illegal immigration?

No. Now why are you and the other right wingers unable to answer MY question? I'll post it again, just to embarrass you:

Sharron Angle finally REstated her position. Now she's for bigger government again. Now she's for saving Veteran's benefits. Now she's for healthcare benefits. Now she's for Social Security. Now do you people understand? Now who are you going to vote for?
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Monday, Oct. 11, 2010 at 4:47 AM -- Report abuse
Angle. Not Reid the flip flopping best friend of illegals.
Written by: Deep.Thoughts on Monday, Oct. 11, 2010 at 6:10 AM -- Report abuse
The main and most important reason to vote for ANGLE is to break the Unholy Trinity of OBAMA/REID/PELOSI!!! We need to isolate OBAMA and keep him from destroying this country any further - if that Unholy Trinity is not broken pace yourselfs for higher taxes - $8 per gal gas - open borders - more drugs related crime from Mexico- policies to crush small businesses- more= union bribes & payoffs. So for Reno - Jerry and all you other DEMS/LIBS breaking the one party gov't is the main reason to vote for Angle!!
Written by: Mark.Gallo on Monday, Oct. 11, 2010 at 9:11 AM -- Report abuse
The main and most important reason to vote for ANGLE is to break the Unholy Trinity of OBAMA/REID/PELOSI!!!

The very ones that saved us from a depression; pulled us from a recession, and overhauled healthcare? Why would you want that reversed?


So for Reno - Jerry and all you other DEMS/LIBS breaking the one party gov't is the main reason to vote for Angle!!

The one that flop-flopped and is now for expanding government; is now for saving Social Security and now for saving Veteran's benefits? You've yet to say what you want Sharron to do if she's in office.
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Monday, Oct. 11, 2010 at 11:47 AM -- Report abuse
Renostarman (aka Mel), take a breath and let someone else comment on your shrill rantings. Maybe some medicinal marijuana is in order.
Written by: Larry.Lewis on Monday, Oct. 11, 2010 at 1:15 PM -- Report abuse
Jerry - what Sharon has to do when she is in office is to oppose all tax increases - repeal OBAMACARE - oppose the bribing of senators and unions, oppose cap & trade legislation, cut spending, help reduce the deficit - and thats only in her FIRST DAY!!!
Written by: Mark.Gallo on Monday, Oct. 11, 2010 at 1:57 PM -- Report abuse
Jerry - what Sharon has to do when she is in office is to oppose all tax increases

She's even flip-flopped on that because of the national debt.


- repeal OBAMACARE -

She's reversed on that. And it, too, would increase the national debt.


oppose the bribing of senators and unions, oppose cap & trade legislation, cut spending, help reduce the deficit -!!!,

WHA! HA! HA! Corporations are bribing her right now. Because of the SCOTUS decision, they're now outspending Democratic donator by 6 to 1. (You should read something other than the RJ and you'd know).

and thats only in her FIRST DAY

You're so naïve.
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2010 at 5:32 AM -- Report abuse
Jerry - I AM SO NAIVE!!! coming from a man who believes in the fairy tale 'saved from depression & pulled us out of a recession' when there is almost 15% unemployment in NV - nationwide unemployment more the 9.5% for 14 months - just like during a real depression in the 1930's. And 'overhaul healhcare' ??? creating 16,000 IRS jobs to police healthcare - sounds like KGB to me. Not to mention 100's of additional bureaucratic entities and bribes to exempts the unions!!! Oh yeah great job!!
Written by: Mark.Gallo on Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2010 at 9:06 AM -- Report abuse
Jerry - I AM SO NAIVE!!! coming from a man who believes in the fairy tale 'saved from depression & pulled us out of a recession'

Yet it's undeniable fact that even the Republican Party can't deny. Yet FOX and Rush Limbaugh feed you the cool aid and you're not even embarrassed about being fooled.
Written by: Jerry.Sturdivant on Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2010 at 1:28 PM -- Report abuse
Good bye Harry. You let us all down. Sharron A. will be the best thing to happen to Nevada.
Written by: bobwhite on Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2010 at 7:55 PM -- Report abuse
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