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Rising fuel costs confound experts

Oil closing at record highs 'against any grain of rational thought'

If you're having trouble grasping the logic behind rising oil and fuel prices, you're in good company.

As crude oil hit a high of $94.53 a barrel in trading Wednesday, even the experts who study petroleum and gasoline economics for a living all but gave up trying to understand what's driving the market.

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  • "The price of oil right now goes against any grain of rational thought," said Denton Cinquegrana, West Coast markets editor for the Oil Price Information Service in New Jersey. "It's got everybody scratching their heads. When you say, 'Prices can't possibly go up anymore,' that's the day prices go up $2 a barrel."

    That instability makes it tough to predict with much precision what motorists will be paying for gasoline through the end of the year and into 2008. What analysts will say with some confidence, though, is that the price of oil, which is a key component in gasoline, won't likely drop below $75 or $80 a barrel in the coming months. That means gasoline prices should pass $3 a gallon by the holiday season, and could stay high through the winter, setting the stage for a "wild spring," Cinquegrana said.

    That's not news that Las Vegan Dalia Fradsham wanted to hear as she filled up her 1994 Lexus SC400 Wednesday morning at a Terrible Herbst station on Sahara Avenue.

    "It's going to kill us," Fradsham said. "It's going to kill everybody. Christmas will be a lot thinner."

    Fradsham said the fuel prices of the past 12 months have already forced her to halt regular road trips into Arizona and Utah, and she's spending less on groceries and clothes.

    Fradsham's sister, Tania Hurless, said the two have also scaled back window-shopping trips to the Fashion Show mall from twice a week to once every two weeks.

    "When you put money in your car, it takes money away from everything else," Fradsham said.

    Analysts say there are few concrete reasons underpinning rising oil and fuel prices.

    Gasoline makers say they aren't having any trouble finding and buying oil to refine into fuel, so supply isn't spurring the record prices, Cinquegrana said.

    Much of the price gains come instead from simple uncertainty: Commodities traders aren't sure how political tensions in Iraq, Turkey, Iran and other global hot spots might affect future supplies. There's also no telling how long a weak U.S. dollar, which increases foreign demand for oil because it makes the commodity cheaper in other countries, will stay down against other currencies.

    If recent oil prices have set highs that market fundamentals don't justify, drivers at least have caught a break at the pump. Gasoline prices have remained well below the record average of $3.20 a gallon in Las Vegas and $3.27 a gallon statewide. Those highs came in late May, when oil prices were running about $65 a barrel. Analysts credited fuel's spring-time price surge to a jump in demand as travelers began their summer vacations.

    But consumers shouldn't expect today's cost disparity between oil and fuel to continue.

    "The situation is going to start correcting, and eventually, oil prices will filter down to gasoline prices," said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

    Indicators show that trickling-down might have begun.

    The statewide average price for a gallon of unleaded fuel reached $3.03 Wednesday, up from $2.84 a month ago, according to numbers from travel club AAA. Fuel cost $2.94 a gallon in Las Vegas, up from $2.76 a month ago.

    Experts are watching two other factors in addition to oil prices that could send up gasoline prices by the end of the year.

    First, fuel consumption will jump as travelers take to the roads and skies for Thanksgiving, said Michael Geeser, a spokesman for AAA.

    Second, interest-rate cuts at the Federal Reserve could continue to drive down the value of the U.S. dollar, which will in turn boost the price of oil as foreign producers demand more dollars for the petroleum they produce. Plus, a weak dollar will mean more consumption in other countries. The outcome: High crude prices, at least through early 2008, Flynn said.

    Flynn said he expects national gasoline prices to jump a nickel a week for the next two weeks, and hold at about $3 a gallon through Christmas. Because Nevada has higher fuel taxes than most other states, the Silver State's average could top out at $3.15 to $3.20 a gallon, Flynn said.

    For Dave Koby, a project manager at Eagle Windows and Doors in Las Vegas, those prices could mean even leaner times.

    Eagle Windows is already hurting from gasoline and oil prices, Koby said as he tanked up his 2007 Ford F150 pickup truck Wednesday at Terrible Herbst. Freighting costs have more than tripled, and prices on the windows the company sells have jumped 5 percent to 10 percent thanks to petroleum-based components such as plastic moldings and trims. A soft housing market has also hurt the company.

    Eagle Windows is still having a "good year," Koby said, but the company doesn't have work in the pipeline for 2008, and that lack of pending orders is unusual, he said.

    Eagle Windows has adjusted to the higher fuel prices by bundling orders to defray freighting costs and planning deliveries more carefully. Plus, installers won't go on a job unless they have several other projects in the same area, so some buyers have to wait a few days for their windows until the company has other work in the same neighborhood. If prices rise much more, Koby's sacrifices could get more personal.

    "Christmas won't be as good, let's put it that way," he said.

    Koby and other drivers could catch a price break if a warm winter suppresses nationwide demand for heating oil, Flynn said. Prices for both oil and gasoline would also decline if the economy slides into recession, because demand would drop as people cut back on spending and travel.

    Forecasting future prices is difficult because oil isn't priced reasonably, Cinquegrana said. But he expects crude prices to stay high through the winter and into the spring. And starting the spring with already-high oil costs could translate into gasoline prices that go "absolutely nuts" when Memorial Day launches the summer travel season, Cinquegrana said.

    The savior could be ethanol, a fuel additive that's designed to help gasoline burn more cleanly. An oversupply of ethanol has made the additive cheaper, and if that trend continues, slightly lower fuel prices could result, Cinquegrana said.

    Like other industry experts, AAA's Geeser doesn't expect significant cost savings at the pump through the end of 2007.

    "Prices are definitely not following the trends of past years, when we saw prices retreat toward the end of the year," Geeser said. "They're doing the opposite at a time when demand tends to fall off. That would sort of predict prices are going to remain high through the end of the year."

    So will oil prices ever fall back to the $40 a barrel they traded for in 2004, and give consumers bigger relief at the pump?

    "They will, but the question is whether it will be now or 20 years from now," Flynn said. "The oil market is a story of boom and bust. We're going to have a bust in the oil market. It's going to happen, maybe even next year, if we get into a recession."

    Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@reviewjournal.com or (702) 380-4512.



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    Carol Tharp wrote on September 15, 2008 03:27 PM: What should the price of gas be at 95.00,90.00, 85.00, 80.00 and etc. Please send this information to me. Thank you, Ms. Tharp


    George wrote on November 01, 2007 07:18 PM: Ever think the constantly shrinking dollar might have something to do with it. Want a real shock - buy a cup of tea in London. Maybe the gas pump prices will be a little bit easier to understand after that. Will it continue? Why not, with more foreclosures and the Fed continuing to lower interest rates while prices of goods go up.


    sad wrote on November 01, 2007 06:27 PM: GREED &^%$#@!)(*&^ers this is what it is. This is a massive class action lawsuit i can see. 2006 oil $62 barrel, gallon of gas $3.00 $33 more at $95.00 barrel gallon of gas at $2.74 and the oil companies still made $9.000.000.000 billion. Yep and they said that we are supply and demand and still no gas stations out of gas here.

    You it's not only the President IT IS CONGRESS and The HOUSE and they all have stock in oil reaping millions, this is why you hear nothing from the hill. One for me go 456k yourself voters we are number 1 and live like number 1 and your still hard at work you puks. This from all elected leaders


    d wrote on November 01, 2007 06:05 PM: Thank You Walter, hit it right on the head

    I guess they don't teach much in school these days.


    douglas wrote on November 01, 2007 05:46 PM: other than the "progressive" agenda to intentionally restrict u.s. petroleum reserves, crude oil auctions are only affected by worldwide demand.

    those nations which want that crude oil more, pay more. mostly since china and now india are enjoying their industrial revolutions. add the emancipated eastern block countries which are aggressively trying to catch up to western europe after decades under their communist dictatorships. net result is that as long as the "progressives" are further restricting u.s. exploration, harvesting, and refining, u.s. [and those foreign oil companies retailing within the u.s.], those oil companies have to get in line to buy more at auction than ever before. no magic here, with more bidders, the higher the final price.

    add to that is a restrictive international supply. opec rightly controls production among its members to maintain some price support. other producers, opec and not, may have political issues with production [viz. nigeria with continuing insurgency/terrorism/tribal warfare]. then we have the venezuelan president who seems to be using his citgo service stations' cash flow to buy russian nuclear submarines.

    unless the u.s. as a whole, uses less crude oil and its products, we will have to outbid *all* other countries. and since we are sending massive cash to "underdeveloped" countries as china and india for their low dollar manufactured goods, they will outbid us using our money.

    kinda like getting bit by your own dog.

    the only politics in this situation are the "progressives" who are condemning the u.s. consumers to in effect, buy more crude oil on that auction market.


    jj wrote on November 01, 2007 05:07 PM: when bush was elected? oil was $26 a barrel.


    douglas wrote on November 01, 2007 03:58 PM: without the present administration and the skill and efficiency of u.s. oil companies, gasoline at the pump prices would be mebbe double. at least as high as those in europe.

    despite the "progressive" agenda to reduce exploration, harvesting, and refining of the oil reserves within the u.s., oil companies here obviously are doing a far superior job at keeping down gas prices to the consumer. without question, supply and cost to the u.s. consumer would be even less were the "progressive" agenda ignored preventing u.s. exploration.

    further, were the the most efficient, economical method of electricity generation, nuclear, enhanced, far less natural gas and diesel oil fuels would be necessary for those electric utilities' plants. and of course, were the u.s. to burn more coal for power generation, our need to outbid others in the world crude auctions would be less.

    the present administration has been able to deter the captain nemo kennedy "solution". over the years, captain nemo has proposed both a 50 cent and one dollar tax surcharge on gas "to discourage use". no doubt that tax surcharge would be sent to some black hole, fact finding, blue ribbon commission [read, evaporate].

    for our rising gasoline prices we must thank hapless harry reid. no one else has more directly forced up petroleum and electricity costs than hapless harry.


    say what wrote on November 01, 2007 12:00 PM: remember a couple months ago when the pump price was over $3.00 a gallon and at $80.00 a barrel's it's almost $100. but the pump price is below $3.00...what's wrong with this picture..there#$#@ us again.and nobody cares."the oil companies are scratching their heads"?????


    Kevin wrote on November 01, 2007 10:37 AM: Gee, the RJ missed this article in USA Today.
    "...The three states with the highest foreclosure rates during the third quarter were Nevada, California and Florida, RealtyTrac said.

    Nevada reported one foreclosure filing for every 61 households, with 16,817 filings on 12,982 properties.

    That marked a 22.8% increase in filings from the previous quarter and a tripling from the year-ago quarter."


    oldlawdawg wrote on November 01, 2007 09:58 AM: Lets hope the Fed is paying attention and taking notes because it just "got took." Institutional investors bullied the Fed into cutting two key lending rates only to then stick it to the market with even more insecurity driven by concerns over not just the credit markets they were demanding the Fed shore up with rate cuts, but over run-away oil prices for which annalysts can no longer see any supporting rationale -- prices clearly driven by the need of those same institutional investors to make windfall oil profits standard fare by assuring that consumers get used to $3+ per gallon at the pump come hell or high water. That the Fed did not see this comming was truly spectacular as the greed is so naked as to be just downright unseemly. Our economy is rapidly becoming one in which there are only institutional investors and consumers,with consumers being anyone not an institutional investor,and the Fed is actually assuring that scenario by dancing to whatever tune is played on Wall Street as long as it sounds even faintly like Main Street. The Fed now takes the word of the institutional investors literally as to what is both desired and needed by consumers,thus making sure consumers are completely closed out in the struggle for at some meaningful economic clout in the marketplace. Not only has the stability supposedly sought through rate cuts been completely undermined,but consumers are now certain to get raped on Winter fuel costs as any and all potential curbs to never-ending price spirals have completely evaporated or just plain "caved in," while the institutional debt-mongers cheer because the Fed's rate cuts assure consumer credit will remain available to support yet another round of "holiday spending." All practical concerns must subordinate to the absolute needs of our debt-driven economy.


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