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A glimmer of hope for LV housing

Sales stats seen as indication bottom of slump is near







Nobody's ready to declare that the Las Vegas housing market has reached bottom, but some real estate experts are convinced the floor is at least being established.

The inventory of homes for sale receded slightly in November to 23,494, about 400 fewer than the previous month, and sales remained below 1,000 for the third consecutive month, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported.


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  • Inventory is up 19.1 percent from a year ago and sales are down 37.4 percent, but the hard numbers have leveled off over the past few months.

    "It appears we have reached the bottom everyone is waiting for," Robin Camacho of American Realty & Investments said. "December is looking horrible, but it's December and it's always the worst month. November did finish flat. Pending sales were rising, then stalled. Now they are rising again, which means in 30 to 60 days, sales should be rising.

    "Unfortunately, foreclosures and short sales are still rising. But listings are decreasing and pending sales are rising. These are the positive signs we've been watching for."

    The number of condominiums and townhomes listed for sale fell 0.9 percent in November to 5,989.

    Realtors sold 968 single-family homes in November at a median price of $273,500, an 11.2 percent decline from a year ago. Condo and townhome sales fell 50 percent to 162 and the median price is down 10 percent to $180,000.

    Association President Devin Reiss said November statistics reflect slower sales and stable inventory that the holiday season traditionally brings. However, he still believes it's a good time to buy a home because of low interest rates, abundant housing choices and a strong local economy.

    A study recently published by Applied Analysis, a Las Vegas financial research firm, concluded that Las Vegas will experience a housing supply shortage by late 2009 or 2010. The data further support the assertion that it is a buyers' market, Reiss said.

    Debi Averett of Phoenix-based Housingdoom.com said the market is definitely in the "winter doldrums." Inventory is down because few people want to sell their home during the holidays. They'll take it off the market, wait 90 days and list it again so it doesn't look like it's been on the market forever, she said.

    "The median (price) has been declining faster than I thought, courtesy of the credit crunch," Averett said. "The good news there, though, is for all the pain the market is going through, we are headed back to the world where Las Vegas housing is in line with people's wages. No one likes picking up the paper and reading that their net worth is dropping every month, but at least when things eventually stabilize, people should have more money in their pockets to do something besides make the house payment."

    Camacho said she expects sales to drop again in December and January, but not as much as would generally be expected for the winter holiday season.

    "Prices are still dropping, in large part because investors are buying up the best deals," she said. "But with sales flat and pending sales rising, it shouldn't be long before prices stabilize and begin to climb as excess inventory is absorbed. Prices are still dropping while sales are rising. I think we have an ideal buyers' market that won't last much longer."

    The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors' statistics are based on sales through the Multiple Listing Service and do not necessarily include sales of new homes by builders and other transactions not involving a Realtor.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or (702) 383-0491.

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    Report abuse

    rebelluver wrote on December 21, 2007 05:40 PM: In that case I retract my comment about you owning a house. Sometimes you make a little sense actualy. But, just a little. Paying what I paid for the quality of house I received can not be a bad decision. I can not get hurt to bad unless of course a terrorist attack or something drastic like that. (knock on wood)I will not sell for a long long time and have a thirty year fixed rate mortgage that I can afford.


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    Darthvader wrote on December 21, 2007 02:36 PM: The post attributed to Darthvader 12/21 1:17PM was posted by a imposter. I disavow those comments!


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    DarthVader wrote on December 21, 2007 02:31 PM: Rebelluver: I own a home in Red Rock Country Club, Summerlin. I also have had extensive real property holdings over the years thru-out the Valley. Liquidated most of these in 2005.


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    rebelluver wrote on December 21, 2007 01:37 PM: OK you just showed your true colors Vader.
    You are a complete idiot! There is no chance that happens. Do you even own a house? $75 a sq ft huh? I'll buy 5 and so will everyone else if that happens genius. I thought you were just a little confused at first, now I realize you might of forgot your meds.


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    DarthVader wrote on December 21, 2007 01:17 PM: Seriously, why would you buy a house, Charles, when it will drop in value $100k? That's just stupid. I mean if anyone buys a 2000 sq. ft. home for more than $175k, they are being robbed! I would not be surprised to see homes selling regularly for around $150k throughout the valley by next year. The year after for about $100k.


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    DarthVader wrote on December 20, 2007 05:46 PM: Hey, go ahead and buy a house Bro, just dont think you are getting any deal in the current market! AND for god sake hold on to it more than 5 years. Dont get upset as prices fall further.IN fact dont look! It is going to get very ugly. The class action lawsuits against developers, Banks, Brokers and Derivitives packagers of these loans will begin shortly and will make ENRON and WorldCOM look like peanuts!


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    rebelluver wrote on December 20, 2007 05:37 PM: Just mention anything about buying a house Charles. That should do it.


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    rebelluver wrote on December 20, 2007 05:16 PM: Everything you say is correct. The problem is, I did not accept the offers made to me for 30,000 in incentives by some builders. You guys are missing the most simple of points. I got 30% taken off of the price. That means IF the market free falls another 30% I BREAK EVEN. Was your incentive comparable V? How much per sq ft did you pay. You guys make it sound as if, if you bought recently, you got a bad deal. For the most part that is correct, but there are some fantastic deals out there. The only way I lose (once again), is if prices fall another 50% from NOW. Not 2 years ago. Doesn't seem very likely now does it?


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    Charles wrote on December 20, 2007 05:08 PM: What? No one calling me names? I must admit that I'm a little disappointed with the doomsayers.

    Like someone said earlier in another time. If you are looking to live in your area for less than 5 years, it would be wise to rent. If you think you will be there longer, it would be wise to buy. That has been the rule of thumb for ages now. And it looks like conventional wisdom is at it again.


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    V wrote on December 20, 2007 04:54 PM: Rebelluver, you can say you got a good deal compared to a couple years ago but DarthVader is correct. Just because you got an incentive doesn't mean your home is worth more than what you paid or you have instant equity. I also bought a new home recently and got a reduced price and some nice incentives but if I were to have my house appraised it would probably come in at what I recently paid regardless of price reductions and incentives that I received. As it stands right now I plan on settling down here for a while and hope that when I eventually sell my house that I can make a profit but for anyone who has bought recently must understand that it will take a while for this market to recover. Do I regret buying when I did? No, because I was ready and can afford my 30 year fixed loan. The simple fact is that prices are going to have to continue to drop until demand catches up with supply. Like Darth said, it is simple Economics 101.


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