Get Real wrote on February 09, 2008 08:38 PM: MGM has the money to structure real financing once the price is right. Why should they help out when they'll be able to get it on the cheap and just move their construction company right next door?
And as far as Las Vegas home prices - they've already dropped significantly. Other cities are just now going through what Las Vegas has already seen. When rents pay the mortgage, it's bottomed out. True Real Estate Investors know this.

VegasResident wrote on January 21, 2008 08:33 AM: Housingdoom is right in theory, the 2003-2004 40% plus appreciation of housing was artifical driven by speculation and had no basis in financial reality, thus at least 40% of the housingpricing needs to unwind to get us back to a historic trend line.

HousingDoom wrote on January 20, 2008 09:11 PM: Useless, I dont dispute yoru example except to say that be wary of the mdeian prices for LV. A more specific example would be to look at a home in your neighborhood that was for sale in 2006-2007 and drop its value by 50% to get a reality check on where prices should be. Another way to look at values is to take a home whose value you know was in 2000 and then back in that value by 4.5% per year. Add it forward, compounded,then you can figure where the home value should be in 2007.

Useless wrote on January 18, 2008 07:36 PM: Ok, HD 50% from median of 300k. that means houses 150k. Great. payment will be around $1000/mo PITI with rates around 6.5% Wonderful owing will cost less than average rent of 1200/mo. Sounds liek a deal. Cant wait.

HousingDoom wrote on January 17, 2008 05:24 PM: Useless and Concerned Joe: The best indicator of where hoousing is going or should be is by referencing the credible Case-Shiller Index. It shows a 50% decline over 2006 LV prices. Another way to look at this has been analysis by UNLV economic Dept. Historic LV housing appreciation prior to 2002 was between 4 and 5 percent per year. As for "recovery" , well my friends, Japan's housing bubble imploded over 10yrs ago and still has not come back. Not close enough for you, well the NASDAQ Bubble burst in 2001, 50% down and still down 7 years later! Not good enough examples of had this time things are really going to be a nutcracker, well todays revealations of additional defaults pending in the credit reinsurer arena, means, this could portend a return to the credit freeze this summer, where my friends in the financial world tell me the market almost went into a depression world wide. It was only temporarily deverted by massive infusions of capital from European and USA CEntral Banks! Need more facts? Merill Lynch, CITI, Country Wide, Bear Stearns and other financial entities have only been saved to date by foreign govt entities (Arab, Chinese,and other private equity bailouts! Even MGM City Center Project could not stand up to its own traditional fianancing and had to sell off 50% to Arabs! We are not in good shape as a Nation and the shit is hitting the fan. Deny all you want, believe in the tooth fairy, I dont give a damn, this time there is no magic bullet, only pain,humiliation and alot of ordinary folks being hurt! That is why I rant against these SOB's!

useless wrote on January 17, 2008 04:18 PM: Hey HousingDoom. If your such a great economist and more or less a person who finds great pride in stating the obvious, why not do something useful and tell us what the price of
housing should be. I'll take a guess for you. No price will satisfy you, because once housing over corrects it will start increasing again and you will agian start complaining. Maybe we should all sell our houses for less than owed, like the losers and flakes that are already doing it. Better yet, maybe we should all buy a cheaper one before we walk away from the "over-priced" one before mailing the bank the key's. There is no use for your logic. It's in-and-of-itself useless information which nobody has control. So again stating the obvious your predictions are of no value.

Andrea Feodorov wrote on January 17, 2008 03:50 PM: You're quite right. The LTV requirements have indeed changed.

re to housingdoom wrote on January 17, 2008 03:37 PM: HousingDoom, they didin't default on making a payment, they have a short term loan that should have been able to be refi'ed at a higher LTV. Since the credit markets are broken the LTV requirements have changed so they need more cash. It has nothing to do with the quality or success of the project. The credit market changed. More likely than not, if the project or current owners were to fail to complete it the cause would be Lenders NOT Las Vegas, or the demand for the finished units. I think your doom and gloom will help bring great opportunities for future homeowners(at the expense of current ones) & investors alike. Unfortuantly for you once the market finds its bottom your going to need a new hobby. There will be a bottom at some point you cannot deny that point.

Vegasresident wrote on January 17, 2008 03:01 PM: I am with Andrea and HousingDoom. We longtime residents are mad as hell at the speculation and hype that cause us all to now be suffering. Those SOB's in the lending/real estate professions who thru greed, fraud and pure negligence should all be taken out to the desert and buried in alot of holes! Those bastards deserve every nasty outcome, but as usual "the ordinary citizen" is feeling the gut punch and pain brought about by the lowlifes,shills and grifters!

HousingDoom wrote on January 17, 2008 02:47 PM: Ok all you schmuck deniers. My moneker of HousingDoom is to get you dumb "Sheeple's" attention! Yea, dont let reality get in the way of your rose colored outlook on the current financial/housing markets! Did you take note of today's Stock market? Did you bother to put down that drink or stop your prozac for a look see at the latest Fed Chairman's comments or for that matter do you even bother with what the hell nonsense is being toss out like yesterdays garbage by GLVAR or the wideboys downtown? We are angry because of the mess we are now in because of everything stated by Andrea and others here! Unfortunately, this downturn is going to be long,hard and vefry ugly! The chickens have come home to roost!

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