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Home prices return to 2004 levels, market watcher says



Photos by John Gurzinski.







The $200,000 home, once on the verge of extinction in Las Vegas, is making a strong comeback and some new homes are starting at $150,000, a local housing analyst said Thursday.

The number of homes for sale for less than $200,000 represented 8.3 percent of available listings in the first quarter, up from 4.9 percent in 2007 and 3.4 percent in 2006, said Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq, a Las Vegas-based research firm.

KB Home is advertising new homes from $149,900, or about $100 a square foot, in the master-planned Providence community.

Murphy identified 15 new-home subdivisions with 100 different models priced at less than $100 a square foot, led by Richmond American's 3,839-square-foot home at Vienna for $319,990, or $83.35 a foot.


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  • "I would not have believed this two years ago, but folks, that is the market today," Murphy said at his Crystal Ball seminar at Texas Station. "We've come full cycle. We're back to 2004 prices."

    Median existing-home prices fell 4 percent in 2007, the first drop since Murphy's been keeping records, and he predicts an 8 percent decline by the end of this year. Prices will be relatively flat in 2009, then increase 2 percent in 2010 and 5 percent in 2011, Murphy said.

    Home builders overbuilt in Las Vegas for about three years, bringing nearly 40,000 new homes to the market in 2005 when the city's population growth of 75,000 required only 25,000 homes, Murphy calculated.

    "Why did we build more homes than we needed? Because a lot of people bought homes they didn't need ... investors," he said. "So in 2007, 2008 and 2009 we're going to build fewer homes than we need."

    Consultant Steve Bottfeld of Market Solutions admitted he was wrong last year when he predicted that Las Vegas home prices would not drop. However, he remains bullish on the market and said the median price for new homes, including high-rise condos, will be up 8 percent to 10 percent in 2008.

    Bottfeld said the bottom of the Las Vegas housing market is like a three-legged stool. Sales must increase, prices must stabilize and inventory must decrease, he said.

    "We're not on the bottom, but we're nearly on the bottom," he said. Home sales in March increased from February, but they're still far below year-ago levels.

    Mark McGarry of First United Mortgage said first-time home buyers need to realize that they have about a one-year window of opportunity to buy a home with no money down. Banks are willing to help by paying down payments and closing costs, he said.

    "I speak to Realtors daily that are blinded by the dismal news like deer in the headlights," McGarry said. "They simply don't know what to do in this market. Could you imagine if the 17,000 Realtors in Las Vegas found just one first-time home buyer this month? We could potentially take out 50 percent of the homes that are on the market. What an easy fix."

    Las Vegas has its problems, but so does the rest of the nation, said Jim Letchinger, president of JDL Development. The Chicago-based developer is building the 113-unit Mercer midrise condos on west Tropicana Avenue near the Las Vegas Beltway.

    "It's not just Las Vegas, though it may seem like it," Letchinger said at Crystal Ball. "Vegas is suffering from a temporary -- and I stress, temporary -- correction."

    He said most of the failed condominium projects in Las Vegas were "fundamentally flawed," a bad product in a poor location.

    The real estate "gold rush" is clearly over, but the market will move on and eventually become stronger and better, Letchinger said.

    "I guarantee you every home you buy is going to be worth more down the road. I can't say when -- three years, six years -- but in the history of the world, land prices go up, construction costs go up," he said.

    "Las Vegas is a unique city unlike any other city in the country and always will be. Take advantage of it. Stick it out and you'll be successful," he also said.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

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    It's still winter in Chi-town wrote on May 09, 2008 01:12 PM: So much negativity, I hope you people all move away before I relocate to Vegas in a few years. Jeez, try living here from November-April. The real estate agents are missing an opportunity if they aren't marketing to the 45-55 demographic currently residing in the snow belt - the upper middle class types who are at the height of their wage-earning years, with kids finishing up college, who could benefit by purchasing their Vegas retirement residence at 2008 prices (and 2008 interest rates) as opposed to rolling the dice 10 years from now. At least the banks would be happy in shedding assets from their "OREO" portfolios. And to "The Donald", I wouldn't call it a "collapse" - I'd call it a correction. And to "Options...", take your $50k and move to another country, where you'll pay $6 for a litre of gas and $20 for a latte and a scone.


    Truthiness wrote on April 29, 2008 05:46 PM: "My agent says she wishes she has some liquid capital right now."

    Yeah, I bet many agents wished they had some liquid capital right now, but not to buy property.


    Robert wrote on April 27, 2008 03:48 PM: "McFly wrote on April 25, 2008 10:21 AM:
    Bt...what the hell are you talking about...be specific...or dont post! Robert, we get it, NACA are about of carpet baggers who will grift there way into the social fabric of the minority community an fleese themlike every other shame outfit touting help for the "little" downtrodden people!"



    One question.....can you get a loan today with no credit score, no money down and you can buy your rate down to .25% on a 30 year fixed, no closing costs, and no application fees?

    Oh, learn how to spell before you post. Sounds like a scared loan officer(used car salesman/real estate agent) that is about to be put out of business:)


    David Johann wrote on April 26, 2008 09:16 PM: I believe much of what Truthiness writes below is correct. The R-J and the real estate industry needs to feel optimistic--not just to sell property by convincing us to buy, but also to help themselves feel better about this mess.

    I don't know how many real estate agents have enough liquid capital and good enough FICO scores to invest in new properties, however, especially if they still have one or more properties that they had at the beginning of the downward spiral.

    My agent says she wishes she has some liquid capital right now.


    Truthiness wrote on April 26, 2008 08:47 AM: The local experts that have been quoted in the RJ over the past few years, such as Larry Murphy, Larry Smith, Steve Bottfeld, the GLVAR president (pick any of them), agents, mortgage brokers, etc..., have 2 things in common:
    1) Their income varies with the real estate market
    and
    2) They've all been overly optimistic and completely denied the possiblity that a housing price bubble even existed, until recently

    Folks, what you're reading in these articles is not the impartial observations of altruistic, knowledgeable professionals. It is clearly in their best interest to talk up the market just as a car salesman will tell you that whatever car he's trying to sell you is the right one for you.

    The next time someone, especially an agent, tells you that it's a terrific buyer's market, just ask them one question: How many houses have YOU bought this year?

    The answer will reveal their true sentiment about the market.


    Options, Options! Darn wrote on April 26, 2008 12:57 AM: I have $50,000 rotting in a Bank! What do I do??! 1) Put deposit down on highrise Condo? 2) Buy a stucco box as a rental? Being a landlord is just so Sexy! 3) Gamble at the Palms, or 4) Move to another country? Hmmm


    Donald Trump wrote on April 25, 2008 11:53 PM: Listen, I have developed some of the greatest real estate projects in the world. What you have in Las Vegas is generally an uneducated group of people/monkeys...this is the low end.

    Then you have the upscale folks who like to buy/invest in my world class properties. The high end will always be in style, while most of you bottom feeders will end up getting what you deserve....which will likely be Bankruptcy. See, you are supposed to buy low and sell high.

    I saw this collapse coming a mile away.


    Genius wrote on April 25, 2008 11:47 PM: David Johann you once again prove that liberalism is a mental disorder. Your Housing Economics 101 explanations are lame brother. The housing market is in free fall and no amount of spin is going to change that for years! Oh you think the Dems are going to rescue us ? Hell they will raise taxes and then bar the door we will plunge into a real depression.All the action to date have delayed the inevitable correction that must occur to get us back to basics in housing. That is homes are for dwelling, not ATM machines or "investment vehicles". The dollar is falling and inflation rising. Best advice now. Hunker down and get rid of as much debt as you can. Prepare for years of pain. This time there is no easy fix!


    Money Trees grow in Fantasy Land (USA) wrote on April 25, 2008 10:33 PM: By giving loans to too many (and various "minoirty" programs and requirements), Homes are treated like a large Pizza or disposable camera. Require Down Payments and allow honor and pride to return to home ownership. Section 8 should also be restricted to Apartments, not Homes. I'm shocked that section 8 was ever allowed to damage neighborhoods.


    Me at Home wrote on April 25, 2008 09:16 PM: " can’t say when — three years, six years — but in the history of the world, land prices go up, construction costs go up,’ he said.”

    Keep counting slick, I think you have a few spec homes you have to move...This sub-prime over built mess has just started prices are going down, down payments are going up,and banks are going under...wait till the next few months and the next wave of ARM's reset and even the Prime borrowers start walking !


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