Doom and Gloom wrote on May 22, 2008 11:09 AM: Sorry, got a little excited there, I believe Encore is only estimated to add around 4-5,000 new jobs...with all of the new projects going up, I get them confused.

Doom and Gloom wrote on May 22, 2008 10:49 AM: From Experience - It isn't only happening in Seven Hill/Anthem...It's all over the place...and even more so in the under $250K range.

The number of pending and contingent sales are up almost 300% from six months ago. Buyers are already entering the market, and these current pending and contingent sales will close in the next 30-60 days, but they won't be reported until a month after that in the media. Those who do have a good feel for what is happening are already getting in. Around July or August when we start seeing the number of closings increase significantly in media reports...Those buyers who are currently still sitting on the sidelines will then also start jumping in. Then, add in to the mix that July/August is about the time Encore hiring will be in full swing for about 10,000 new jobs...and you have even more buyers getting in. Get ready all, it's an exciting time and exciting market.

From Experience wrote on May 22, 2008 08:58 AM: Being knee deep as a buyer right now, I can tell you I was outbid on 3 houses recently. Yes, THREE houses. One had 16 bids on it. Keep in mind, I'm making offers in Seven Hills/Anthem. The rule of location is still applying in this market.

The 20-40% drop in the next 2 years is BS. As far as tightening lender standards, I think D&G mentioned FHA. You need a 580 fico and 3% down (which can be covered by the seller). A small dip may be immenent, but a 20-40% is ridiculous. It's all the folks that can't buy houses that want this type of a drop. Pricing right now is at pre-bubble for bank-owned. We're not going to give back more than the appreciation over the last 5 years.

All the sellers still trying to get 2006 prices for their homes is a big part of our inventory problem.

Doom and Gloom wrote on May 22, 2008 06:45 AM: JHO - Exactly what makes me an idiot? Because there is some substance to my argument? At least when I make a claim I can back it with some reasoning, as opposed to making a claim that "REALTORS are crooks" and "Lenders just give buyers what they ask for," with nothing to support it.

My whole point is that many of the real Doom and Gloomers out there have a very narrow point of view - meaning they only look at today. In my original post, I simply asked that you consider a few things. What happen's when $30B worth of new hotel/casinos open? Who's going to work there and where are they going to come from? Where are people going to live when the 1800 current single family rentals homes are gone? If there isn't anything to rent, then what?

Nobody wants to buy a home when the value is going down. I know there are still a lot of people who want to purchase a home, and when things do start to turn (and they will), and the media starts to report that prices have stabilized and/or are starting to go back up, what's going to happen? People are going to start to panic. They're going to get the sense of, "Prices are going up, and if I don't get it now, I'm not going to be able to." But by that time, it will be too late, because the data the media reports is from past months, and now everyone is jumping back in. Pent up demand, $30B of new casinos, very few new home permits,...things seem bad now, but I can't wait to read the discussions in a couple of years.

JHO wrote on May 21, 2008 10:11 PM: Doom and Gloom is an idiot:
Realtors are crooks:
Lenders just give buyers what they ask for.
Buyers are ALWAYS buying the MAXIMUM they can buy, why? GREED. The 80s were not the decade of greed, the 10s are!

Doom and Gloom wrote on May 21, 2008 07:48 PM: DT - FHA loans are the new "Little to no Money Down." They don't really look at your credit score, they look more at the overall picture and credit history, and with downpayment assistance programs or seller's paying closing costs, you don't have to have much cash. If your accounts have been in good standing for the past 12+ months, decent income that you can verify - you can get a great loan. I agree that the "credit crunch" is somewhat of an unknown variable - but there will be a day when banks loosen the standards. Until then, you may have to settle for something in the under $400K.

d - and others - you obviously have been sitting on the sideline, but haven't been watching too closely. I'm sure there are buyers reading this right now who can testify to what is actually happening in the market today. REALTORS aren't just telling buyers to bid over list price so they can make a bigger commission...It's because there are a lot of buyers out there who have picked the splinters out of their butts, gotten off the bench, and are looking to buy. With so many offers being put on some of these houses, it is a lot like 2004-05 when people were bidding up prices, and if a buyer wants a house that has 9 offers on it, bid it up!

If the banks were able to make a decision in a few days rather than several weeks or months, we'd eat through the existing inventory a lot faster than what most people realize. There is a lot of pent-up demand and when inventory continues to decline and people start to feel it, then watch out. Housing shortage.

d wrote on May 21, 2008 06:07 PM: anyone who listens to this is a fool.
it aint worth buying then

"We now tell our buyers to offer above list price or even an escalating offer where they will pay $1,000 more than the highest offer," McGarry said."

DT wrote on May 21, 2008 04:43 PM: Only one problem Doom & Gloom: current demand is not dictacted by previously known measures. In the last couple of years if you wanted a loan you would get one as long as you had a pulse.

Now you actually have to meet the strict qualifications, which makes for opportunities like the ones you mention not entirely applicable. This 'credit crunch' will be the leading factor in the slow reversal of this mess....asssuming that we will have no more tidal waves of foreclosures, and that Alt-A and conforming segments as a whole do not slide further. Which is highly unlikely!

B wrote on May 21, 2008 03:23 PM: Kinda like the way you're thinkin' Doom and Gloom!!!

Doom and Gloom wrote on May 21, 2008 02:34 PM: So many doom and gloom comments...consider this.

Single family home permits are down 60-70%.

Approx 6-8mos from the time a permit is pulled to the house being completed.

There are currently less than 1800 single family homes listed as available for lease (NLV, LV, and Hend)...

Encore, Fontainebleau, CityCenter, Echelon, etc. all opening within 24 months, which should all create a couple of new jobs (I've heard estimates as high as 120,000), but let's keep in mind the doom and gloom and say 1/3 of that...40,000 new jobs.

New Jobs = New Residents. Yes, people already living in Vegas will take some of those new jobs...so let's say half of the 40,000 come from someplace else.

Could we be setting ourselves up for...


LVRJ Headlines at the end of 2009:

Las Vegas Housing Shortage Causes Values to SOAR

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