Doom and Gloom wrote on May 25, 2008 06:49 AM: Whateverusaydear - You are again jumping to the conclusion that someone using a down payment assistance program 1. Has no savings. 2. Has a lot of debt. 3. Is unprepared. 4. Has a low Fico. 5. Is going to get a high interest rate.

I don't have a guesstimate for home prices in 2009...I don't claim to have a crystal ball. I'm simply stating that based on the amount of construction that is happening on the strip, the number of new jobs that will be created - high paying or low paying as they may be, the fact that new home permits are down some 60-70%, and MOST homeowners ARE NOT in trouble...We, Las Vegas, could be setting ourselves up for another housing shortage, in a very short period of time.

Hopefully we never see again what we saw in 04-05...but I really don't think it is that far fetched.

It seems like a lot of people who post are just so negative, like the world is coming to an end. I know, the picture isn't too pretty for a lot of people right now, but it will get better...and I would rather be living in Vegas where there are thousands and thousands of jobs about to be created, than a place like Cleveland, Detroit, etc. What do those places have to boost their local economy?

Okay, then I misinterpreted your post.

Whateverusaydear wrote on May 24, 2008 03:43 PM: Doom and Gloom,

You're entitled to your opinion about down payment assistance... that did not negate the opinions that others share that instead of getting into another "program" to assist for a down payment, maybe they would be better served by taking the time saving their money, having SEVERAL months savings to protect against downturns and emergencies and PAYING DOWN THEIR OTHER CONSUMER DEBT instead of being unprepared in a hurry to buy a house today (listening to others saying "houses will never be cheaper". In other words, most people "found a way" to do it, and prepare for it without liar loans or special programs that helped get them into trouble.

If you want to have more money in your pocket, it's simpler (and more responsible IMHO) to pay down your consumer debt. If you want more money in your pocket, having less debt will (all other things being equal) give you a higher FICO, which can help you get lower interest rates on little things like mortgages and the like - you may not be aware, but having a cheaper rate/bigger down payment/prepaying the loan will probable save you MORE thousands in the long run than a program.

We all know teachers; you aren't guessing using teachers' (or any one else's) wages... just the infrequent valet/bellman wages doesn't mean a thing to most of the new jobs that are opening. Most of those thousands of jobs will NOT be for bellmen or valets. Most will probably be LESS (not more) than the teachers.

What's the guesstimate figures for home prices in 2009/workers' income - those workers making 6 figures? I'd like to see whether these thousands can AFFORD it.

Most of us found a way without liar loans.

I reread my 11:33 post... doesn't explain your misinterpretation of it.

Doom and Gloom wrote on May 24, 2008 12:48 AM: Trainer - Are you serious? Home values will NEVER recover? Not all homeowners are walking away from their homes. A lot of people who purchased starting prior to 2004 are not in trouble...currently 1/146, or a little more than one half of one percent are in foreclosure! Imagine if the RJ reported it that way...99.4% of homes ARE NOT in foreclosure. "Foreclosures won't diminish"...you mean, ever?! The 99.4% of us not in foreclosure are doomed?! Out of 120K new positions being created, there won't be enough decent paying jobs to eat through the foreclosures? I have negative equity in my home right now because there have been six foreclosures in my neighborhood of 120 homes...guess what, there are 114 other homes NOT in foreclosure! The six homes in foreclosure are already in contract. Want to buy in my neighborhood now? Talk to me or my other 113 neighbors. we are eating through the foreclosures, which is why the valley is down about 1000 listings per month since October, and sales are picking up. We will eat through the foreclosures, and once we do, if you want to buy a house, talk to the 99.4% of my neighbors who are not in foreclosure, and see where their prices are.

Doom and Gloom wrote on May 24, 2008 12:20 AM: Whateverusaydear - What, to you, is a low paying job? Do I know exactly what a Bellman makes? No, but I know one who is married to a teacher, they own a $350-400K house, and live comfortably.

I've heard of teachers who have quit to go park cars...is a valet driver making six figures out of the question?

I'm married to a teacher who has been in the district for 13 years, has a masters +32, and now makes a pretty good chunk...but still probably not as much as a lot of bartenders and dealers.

I have no clue what housekeeping staff makes, but would bet it isn't much less than a first year teacher. Teacher pay sucks. Yes, they should be paid a lot more, but they are smart, and they find a way.

I have friends who are teachers, just starting out, and they bought a house together. They found a way.

How will there be a housing shortage in 2009? Currently just over 22,000 homes for sale...hardly any new home permits being pulled...120K new jobs being created in just one segment of our economy that will come on-line in the next 18-24 months...I think a better question is, how can we not be up against a housing shortage in the near future?

Regarding down payment assistance - it isn't a bad thing, and I guess you missed my point in that it is simply a way to keep more cash in the hands of the buyer. $6K factored into a mortgage is only about $40/mo more in a monthly payment. Sorry, most first time home buyers aren't putting down 20%.

Read your 11:33 post.

trainer wrote on May 23, 2008 08:28 PM: Ok, face reality people... the home values around here will never recover to the insane values of the peak years. Lenders have marked this state as a high risk area and the low paying casino jobs coming in the next few years will not remedy that fact. The only thing that will help is for foreclosures to diminish, and they won't. I'd love to see a poll that shows how many homeowners around here have negative equity, because those are the people that represent future foreclosure potential. I mean think about it, why continue to pay for an asset that will never provide a financial return? OK the article, "personal savings are up" huh? Prices of everything are going thru the roof, wages have been stagnant for the last 8 years, but somehow people are saving more money? You know I understand the newspaper's viewpoint. It's their job to promote this city, and ultimately it will help us as homeowners if it all comes true. Let's hope for the best, and let's be fair.. weare now the only city fighting thru the hard times.

Whateverusaydear wrote on May 23, 2008 08:01 PM: Being curious about CCSD teachers' pay, I went to a website that apparently displays it (you can google it for the address, unless some kindly interested party wants to post it).

The pay for these licensed professionals starts at approximately $30K... the pay (after steps & with MA) is around $50K?

That's all?

Just wondering what kind of housing teachers and similarly situated individuals in Vegas could afford on that pay. To prevent them from buying more house than they could afford, how much should the house cost if you're a single income household or a two-income household that makes as much.

Are most of these new jobs coming online going to pay as much as teachers, with their education and credentials? The lower paid service workers too? If they don't make their wages, how "high" is real estate going to go in Vegas?

Last I heard, there were still teachers' shortages in Clark County. It's only my opinion, but after all their education and their working conditions shouldn't they be paid more?

If real estate is priced out of their reach, how will there be a housing shortage in 2009? An AFFORDABLE housing shortage maybe.

Whaterverusaydear wrote on May 23, 2008 06:04 PM: Doom and Gloom,

Are you implying that most of these newcomers will not be low paying jobs? What do you believe most of these new jobs will pay - more than degreed professionals who currently live here?

Do you have a rough estimate for what you believe these newcomers will make? How does your estimate compare to current professional residents, like teachers for example? Or state workers?

When people start at a new job, such as for example the government jobs some people claim are overpaid, are you not aware that in most cases you don't start out at the top wage? You normally start out at the lower rung of the wage ladder. I admit I don't know what these thousands of workers will be making; I'm just not imagining that it will as much as most of the people who have been here for years already. I could be wrong, but I'm curious what type of wages you imagine for these new workers.

You're entitled to your opinion about down payment assistance. I've always been of the frame of mind to have enough down payment to avoid things like PMI, and to have several months' savings available to cover expenses also in case of emergency - just in case economic times become tough. But to each their own. If you spend most (if not all) of your money to get into a house without a safety cushion, well it SHOULD be that consumer's problem.

Please point out in my posts your misinterpretation of "believe every person...no money".

Money Trees Fantasy: reread my 11:05 AM post - my opinion is more like yours on downpayment assistance... sounds like making it easier for people to get in trouble. So we bail them out too?

Money Trees grow in Fantasy Land (USA) wrote on May 23, 2008 03:12 PM: Whateverussaydear= socialist

What we need is a cut back in government, not more as you imply! Massive govt is a major part of our problems. Let's not pile on more.

Downpayment Assistance, WTF!!!! What a joke. If someone cannot save, they should rent. What a concept. You are an idiot. People like you, make me realize why U.S. is hurting.

Read down, about how Cheap Vegas is compared to many other places, and how CA debt/income ratios are high yet it has a massive immigrant population (all shacked up). They can do it here, and clog more of our roadways that they do not pay for.

Doom and Gloom wrote on May 23, 2008 12:56 PM: Whateverusaydear - it sounds as if you believe every person out there has awful credit and no money. There are a lot more people in the country NOT in trouble than are in trouble.

FHA loans are back...

Not all casino industry jobs are low wage...may just have to buck up and start claiming those tips!

Just because someone may want to use a down payment assistance program does not mean that they can't afford the house. It's like asking for closing costs to be paid...how much does does 6-10K added on to your mortgage affect your monthly payment? A lot of people may have the cash, but would rather use the cash for paint, furniture, etc.

I'm sure a lot of the new residents won't purchase right away, but like I said, they can rent from me.

Whateverusaydear wrote on May 23, 2008 11:33 AM: I guess there is also some assuming that the service workers will move here with adequate cash and being able to meet the credit criteria.

The newcomers may also have problems getting a mortgage if they have a poor credit history, not a two-income household (so single parent household for these jobs may have an additional burden), significant bills, or not much money.

If you don't have the adequate cash and/or not-so-good credit history, and you move here in 2009 to take advantage of all these job openings, about how long will a person have to wait before the lenders will risk the loan? 2010? 2011? Assuming the mortgage industry is in good shape.

Until these rays of hope open, how many more homes are going to be reset, increasing the foreclosures? Also, what is supposed to be happening with the California economy in the meantime? How will Nevada's revenue projections be affected, due to what happens in California and the economy in general?

What effect on the economy and Nevada will be made after the elections are over?

It would be nice if things turned around by 2009 or so.

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