The Straight Dope wrote on June 12, 2008 03:55 PM: ROFL good signs. These idiots in Vegas are standing on a sinking ship, the smart people have jumped onto their life rafts, yet others are trying to convince the remaining few clueless bystanders "there's no problem here, everything is getting better!!"

gurgle gurgle

Vegas is seriously one of the most ignorant cities in this country. Any moron can work a Casino job, and guess what Vegas has plenty of? HMMMM

Doom and Gloom wrote on June 09, 2008 09:35 AM: Bob Jr. - All of what you are saying is true, and I agree that there are some things out of whack.

But, the bottom line reason prices will not, and cannot, continue to fall, is demand.

I believe one of the most over-looked stats many people are ignoring is rental inventory. As of today, there are only 3440 properties available for lease in the valley (excluding apartment complexes). Only 2216 are priced below $1600. There are only 1980 SFR homes available. Where are people going to live?

There are some pretty savvy investors (not flippers or speculators), but cash flow investors who will (and already are) enter this market, because they understand this, and right now, while a lot of people are sitting on the side lines scared, investors see it as an opportunity to make more money.

A lot of people are putting too much empahasis on those in trouble, and forget the fact that the majority of people ARE NOT in trouble. We are eating through the foreclosure inventory, and when we do - those not in trouble are not going to give their house away.

There are also a ton of people who don't carry credit card debt, that with some savings, can afford a home on $60K combined income.

There are a lot of people out there who have money. Not all are college kids moving here to start their first job. And even if they are, a lot of baby boomers who own their homes free and clear want to see their kids own a home, and will help.

FHA will even allow a non-owner occupied co-signer!

Land prices and other construction costs will also not allow the prices of new construction to dip too low.

Bob Jr. wrote on June 09, 2008 01:41 AM: Doom and Gloom -

I agree with you - new hotels means more jobs

But seriously, if you ever worked at a hotel on the strip (namely, one of the MGM/MIRAGE properties) you know that the majority of employees dont make more than 50K a year ($26/hr).

But suppose we have Mr. and Mrs. Smith making about 60K a year. (combined income)
Say He works in kitchen @ ($15/hr) and she works Front Desk @ ($16/hr).
I doubt (with all the tighter lending standards) that they can qualify for a house at $200k.
MAYBE.... if you dont consider Cost of Living, Fuel prices, and other debt (Car loans/Credit debt / etc.) - then maybe they can qualify for the current Median house price of $230K.
But realistically they can afford a house worth 180K (3x annual income)


But if we look back in 1999/2000 when:
Minimum wage: $5.15/hr
Gasoline price: $1.09/gal
Median House Price: $160K

This actually was normal (stable) at the time.



Well.... its time to wake up because today is 2008:
Minimum wage is: $6.33/hr (http://www.dol.gov/esa/minwage/america.htm#Nevada)
Gasoline prices: $4.00+/gal
Median House Prices: $236K (this was $300K+)


Something is wrong here... House Prices went up alot, gas prices went up alot, and income only rose....$1.18

Now you explain to me how price cannot drop?
Lets just hope those International Tourist - keep comming to Vegas to keep these people employed!

Doom and Gloom wrote on June 07, 2008 01:07 PM: Bob - Thanks for another intelligent comment. You've contributed greatly to the conversation.

But just to clarify, is it because of the fact there are billions and billions of dollars worth of new casinos being built that makes me an idiot? Or am I an idiot for simply pointing out the facts?

And again, you say working for a casino sucks - but then you say nothing to support what you're saying, other than to compare it to a couple of movies.

I didn't decide to build the casinos...but you can't deny that they are in fact happening, and are going to create thousands and thousands of new jobs, and bring a whole new wave of people to Vegas...and not all of the people who come will end up working in the casinos...that's just where it starts.

My suggestions: if you think working in a casino sucks, then don't work in one. If you don't like new casinos being built, move where gambling isn't legal.

Bob wrote on June 07, 2008 10:40 AM: Doom and Gloom: Working for a casino sucks. It's a cross between the movie "Office Space" and a Stephen King movie. You are an idiot. Let's build 100 more casinos. 100 x 3,000 jobs =300,000 jobs. No, lets build 1,000 more 1,000 x 3,000 = 3,000,000.

Doom and Gloom wrote on June 07, 2008 01:26 AM: I think it is hilarious that all of the doom and gloom posters always have these grand predictions about how the Vegas RE market is going to continue to decline, but they never have any kind of substance to back the claim.

We've seen some really intelligent comments today that back a further decline:

Dead

Cat

Bounce.

What? I have a three year old who has more intelligent things to say.

"REALTORS are uneducated." Really? I am a member of GLVAR, and I'm well educated in several different areas.

Stock market is down several hundred points today? How is that going to directly affect Vegas RE? Oh, stock market is down today, Vegas is in for another 12 straight months of declining prices! How is ONE day of a big drop in the stock market going to directly affect LV RE? If it goes up on Monday, will that shorten the decline?

Yet, when I mention projects that are estimated to create an estimated 100,000+ new jobs - not one doom and gloomer has anything to say. I was actually surprised nobody said, "Pay for casino jobs suck." or, "They'll never afford a home without a liar loan." I didn't even get that.

I mention that the status of AVAILABLE homes, not in C or P status, has declined from almost 28,700 listings in October to 21,400 listings today - and the best reply was that inventory is seasonal? So, at the end of September, 8-10,000 people are going to say, "Honey, October is here, it's time to put the house on the market."

P and C sales are up over 300% from six months ago...and nothing?

Great job Doom and Gloomers! Great discussion. Can't wait until next time.

Theory on Fees wrote on June 06, 2008 09:51 PM: Patrick, given technolgy, Realtor Fees are bound for a "correction". We've all seen ads for lesser rates, like the injury lawyers offering less %.

Theory on Negativity wrote on June 06, 2008 09:40 PM: Non-Homeowners post the ultra-negative comments that seem to pray for further market decline so they might be able to buy a home.

Patrick wrote on June 06, 2008 06:19 PM: Re Realtors:
I recently purchased a home in Summerlin, the Realtor didn't even provide me the courtesy of a "Thank You". We only looked at 3 homes. I purchased the third home which I found myself.
The job of a Realtor is very simple these days, everything is done on cell phones, the internet, and faxes. Realtors really do not work for the 3-6% commissions like they did 20 or so years ago.

3 Words wrote on June 06, 2008 04:59 PM: Dead

Cat

Bounce.

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