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New-home sales hold steady in LV

Analyst expects trend to continue into 2009




New-home sales in Las Vegas have been consistently low over the past six months and appear to have reached the bottom of the current down cycle, a local housing analyst said Wednesday.

Dennis Smith of Home Builders Research counted 922 recorded escrow closings for new homes in June, bringing the total for the first half of the year to 5,747, a 45.1 percent decrease from a year ago.

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  • Taking out 114 high-rise and mid-rise condos and 31 apartment conversions, sales of traditional single-family detached homes totaled 777, the sixth straight month under 1,000. The high mark of 3,233 came in June 2006.

    This flat trend in new-home closing activity will be sustainable and will most likely continue through 2008 and well into 2009, Smith said.

    "I've said before it's going to be a flat year. Before we see any recovery, it's got to stop going down, and it has," he said.

    The median price of all new-home product sold in June was $269,900, a decline of $54,000, or 16.7 percent, from the same month a year ago. Smith said he doesn't see much of a drop in new-home prices.

    "They can't build them for any less than they're selling for now or they just won't build them," he said.

    New-home permits increased for the fourth straight month to 884 in June, but the year-to-date total is down 61 percent to 5,653.

    Resale activity is picking up, topping 2,000 for the third consecutive month and increasing for the sixth straight month to 2,731 in June. The 12,500 existing-home sales through the first six months is down 15.9 percent from a year ago.

    About 65 percent of resale closings in June were real estate-owned, or bank-owned homes, according to data from the Multiple Listing Service. The number of homes sold by the bank has increased 18 percent over the past three months, Smith noted.

    As more real estate-owned properties hit the market, they will drive prices down and cut into existing-home sales, said Robert Lee, chief executive officer of Huntington Beach, Calif.-based Foreclosure Trackers.

    "Say you've got two three-bedroom, two-bath model match homes," he said. "One's bank-owned for $300,000 and one's a resale for $400,000. Which one's going to sell?"

    Lee, whose business is buying first mortgages from lenders when they go under, said a typical first mortgage might be $500,000 on a home that was appraised at $550,000, but an updated broker's price opinion puts the value at $320,000.

    "You know what I'll pay for that loan? I'll pay $200,000," he said. "You're selling me a defaulted mortgage. How about document deficiency? Whatever the broker's price opinion comes in at, we'll pay 55 cents on that, max. That's the model."

    The median resale price in June was $218,000, a decline of $62,000, or 22.2 percent, from a year ago, Home Builders Research reported.

    Resale prices are still going to suffer, even as sales are going up, Smith said.

    "The good news is an increase in sales, primarily because of lower prices, so the market's moving," he said. "We have to get rid of excess inventory. When demand equals supply, prices will start to go up."

    As the inventory of real estate-owned and short sales increased, roughly tripling in both categories since the beginning of the year, lending institutions have become markedly aggressive in pricing homes to sell, said Frank Nason, president of Las Vegas-based Residential Resources.

    In some cases, these properties are priced below comparable sales in the area, bringing in multiple offers. This has resulted in closings above list price, sometimes significantly more, Nason said.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.



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    Educated wrote on July 22, 2008 11:26 AM: You people are fkn crazy- go get a life.


    Mark P. wrote on July 20, 2008 02:28 PM: The greed stricken bankers, real estate appraisers, real estate sales people & emotional buyers drove this housing by crisis with inflated appraisals & paying ridiculously high prices so now they are suffering. The bankers couldn't go along with normal, affordable real estate prices and low mortgage payments for real estate & property buyers after the mortgage interest rates were lowered after 9/11. They had to collude with the real estate and housing industry to to allow prices to be jacked up to squeeze the last dime and more from home buyers and re-fi's. So their GREED helped Bin Laden and his fanatics actions on 9/11 wreck a substantial part of the world economy anyway.


    Obamanation wrote on July 17, 2008 09:52 PM: Now ok folks, really, with this headline and the economic problems facing this county, you have got to ask yourselfs, do you really want to elect a n@@ger for president? No, I didnt think so!


    Ha's Ha's Investor wrote on July 17, 2008 09:49 PM: Ha's Ha's Bank, quite screwing the pooch and approve the short sale offer I made at 50% on the dollar! And Liarsgroup, are you on coke or WTF, write a sentence that makes sense. Besides as an Investor, I never deal with real estate agents, I go to Bank REO dept and/or subscribe to service that lists foreclosures. Als, just cruise a neighborhood. Look at the homes needing lawn care or other care, bet they are pre forclosures or nearing desperation for sale. Knock on door and ask. I got two homes in NW that way in last six months!


    BIGGER Picture: The CAUSE of the Problem wrote on July 17, 2008 09:48 PM: America's moral decline and Bankrupcy: First was the invention of "blanket" RIGHTS (black 60s-present, women 70s-present, immigrant 90s-present, gay 00s) lead to PROGRAMS which require more GOVERNMENT agencies which need more TAXES which creates more and more DEBT. Today, we are nearly 10 Trillion in Debt, causing weak dollar which causes prices for basics to go up (food, gasoline etc).

    To fix the problem, a swift yet compassionate reversal must occur. As President, I will declare to the people that America is hurt. That to repair the injury we must end the Debt, reduce Taxes, reduce Govt and eliminate programs as every person has equal rights and equal duties, we all must care for our country as Americans.


    LiarsGroup wrote on July 17, 2008 09:32 PM: Is this true that all the some 12,000 acitve realtors tell the same lie?

    I am curious how many have offered and if they got the offer accpeted at list price?

    I offered on over about 15 homes recently and did not getany accpeted in a cash offer at list- if you can please teach me how to get them like yourselfs I would be greatly apreciated.


    d wrote on July 17, 2008 08:07 PM:
    Don't forget the realtors are lying to every one and claiming that there are atleast 20 bids on every reslale out there. How can this be with so few existing home sales.


    Ha's Ha's Bank wrote on July 17, 2008 06:31 PM: Ha's Ha's Landlord - stop pocketing HAHAs rent and make your mortgage payment or I will have to take your investment property that has lost 50% of its value.


    Ha's Ha's Landlord wrote on July 17, 2008 04:38 PM: HAHA - I collect rent from people like you who dont know how to buy a house!


    Ha Ha wrote on July 17, 2008 12:18 PM: EZ Qualify ... lol ... we all are struggling to determine what it is you do for a living :)


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