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ECONOMY: Housing heads to new lows

Analyst tells real estate professionals any good signs in Las Vegas negated by tumbling prices



Illustration by David Stroud.



Graphic by Mike Johnson.

The Las Vegas housing market is flying close to the bottom but giving mixed signals as to where the actual ground may be, housing analyst Larry Murphy said Thursday.

Inventory of available homes for sale has declined and existing-home sales climbed above 6,000 for the second quarter, two good signs for finding the bottom, Murphy said at his quarterly Crystal Ball presentation.

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  • However, median prices continue to fall for both new and existing homes and new-home sales have been under 1,000 for three straight months and five of the past six months.

    "The bad news is housing prices are down and the double-whammy is oil prices are up," Murphy told about 325 real estate professionals at Texas Station. "The good news is beer is cheaper than gas. So drink, don't drive."

    Murphy shows a $215,000 median price for existing homes, the same as it was four years ago -- and falling. If prices had gone up just 5 percent a year over the past five years, Las Vegas would have been on schedule for a median of $217,000 this year.

    "The scary thing right now is the foreclosure iceberg," he said.

    Preforeclosure filings nationwide already have surpassed a million in the first half of the year, nearly double the number from a year ago, Sacramento, Calif.-based Foreclosures.com reported. Nevada had 20.3 filings per 1,000 households, a 167 perecent increase from a year ago.

    "The good news is we're starting to absorb that foreclosure inventory," Murphy said.

    About half the homes sold in June were foreclosures, and their median price was $113 a square foot, he said. Lenders are slashing prices on foreclosed homes as the numbers surge.

    Bank acquisitions in Las Vegas far outpaced bank dispositions until June, when both numbers started to converge on 2,000, according to SalesTraq.

    Realtors have complained about the lengthy process of closing escrow on foreclosures. Murphy said it depends on the bank. Some are quicker than others to dispose of properties.

    Murphy reported an 18 percent drop in detached new-home prices from a year ago and 23 percent decline in existing-home prices. Prices are also falling for attached homes.

    Single-family detached homes accounted for 68 percent of new-home closings in the first half of the year, followed by high-rises (15 percent), attached condos and townhomes (10 percent) and apartment conversions (5 percent).

    Consultant Steve Bottfeld of Marketing Solutions said Las Vegas is going through a rolling "Goldilocks" recovery.

    "It's not too hot. It's not too cold. Unfortunately, it's not just right for everybody," he said.

    The housing rescue bill passed by the House of Representatives is going to help neighborhoods devastated by foreclosures, such as ZIP code 89031 in North Las Vegas, Bottfeld said. That area leads the valley with 615 foreclosures this year.

    Murphy said we'll know the bottom is here when inventory stops increasing, when sales stop increasing and when prices stop falling.

    "So have we hit the bottom yet? I would say no. The bottom is still in front of us," Murphy said. "When all three of these conditions are met, we can look each other straight in the eye and say the bottom has been reached."

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@ reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.



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    Josh wrote on July 31, 2008 11:36 AM: Titleguy, I am a first time homebuyer. I am sorry that you are losing equity, but, frankly, I need to buy a house. If the banks are selling houses, somewhere, for $120,000 that sold for $300,000 last year, please let me know where? I have been shopping around, and, from my perspective, the banks are still trying to extract top dollar on every home, if they can do it. The only reason they are dealing at all is because they've got so many of them at one time. I want to buy one. Hey, let's face it, the more buyers there are, no matter what the price, the better off the neighborhood will be, in the long run! Thanks!


    Frank the Forecloser wrote on July 31, 2008 11:32 AM: Titleguy, you are in dreamland. Do you expect to have some sovereign right to your so-called "equity". If the market says your house is worth $120,000, it means it is worth exactly that. If you have equity then you have equity. If your mortgage is too high, because you paid too much, you don't have any equity. Too bad. You expect the government, meaning the taxpayers, to bail you out?


    Jim Bearman wrote on July 31, 2008 11:24 AM: The people that thought that housing prices would skyrocket forever astound me. How dumb can you get? It is about time that they fall, so that people can begin to afford homes again. The prices were ridiculous. A home is a place to live, not to speculate on. You should expect to pay for a place to live, not make big bucks off of the fact that you've graced it with your fat arses for a couple of years! Now that the bottom is falling out of the housing market, I can findally buy a house at a decent price. But, I won't buy until prices fall a lot more, because they are still way too high.


    sonyalee wrote on July 31, 2008 06:01 AM: Foreclosure is something that can happen to anybody in any financial income bracket, it is embarrassing and it does not discriminate. Foreclosure is not something that you should hide from in hopes that it will go away, it won't. I was able to prevent foreclosure by contacting mortgagebuyerbasics.com Getting started was easy and private. They were helpful in answering any and I questions that I had about foreclosure and the options I had to prevent it. All consultations are free and there is no pressure.


    steve wrote on July 26, 2008 09:04 PM: Why wouldn't you buy a home now that the prices are very low? I gotta have a place to live and in the next three years the prices should increase. Meanwhile good tax deduction.


    TitleGuy wrote on July 26, 2008 07:34 AM: Hey Concerned:
    You have no clue what you are talking about. The house is only worth what you paid for? I paid $150,000 for my house in 1994. By 2003, my house was worth $180,000. In 2006 it 'jumped' to $300,000. Big woop. Until the banks foreclosed on nearly every house in my neighborhood and now are selling them for $120,000.
    Here is what you can do for me (*)


    Jack wrote on July 26, 2008 01:13 AM: Lenders are lowering the prices, but lenders are also using any excuse they can find to not lend money to buyers right now. In addition, these lenders are refusing to refinance houses when borrowers want to get rid of their interest only and creative financing loans that are causing the mess.
    add to the mix the investors out there trying to create a second bubble in the market so they can cash out and you have a second bubble burst in sight that will be worse than the first.
    Home buyerrs who bought way out of their affordability range and banks that sold horrible loans to stupid people, then refuse to refi the buyers are fueling this problem to the extreme.
    I am very unhappy that the legislators and president are going use my tax dollars to bail either of the two out of their mess. First of all buyers should have bought what they could afford, as for the banks, go to those b*st*rds with your hand out when you make financial mistakes and see what you get... the big F you. why should we give them anything.
    One thing I would like to see is the US govt punish the banks for keeping their interest rates the same for four years, while the fed continues to lower the prime.
    In short, greedy banks and greedy buyers and speculators got themselves into this mess, let them get themselves out!


    Robert wrote on July 25, 2008 07:16 PM: There are a great deal of good posts below. However most of the analysis ignores one very important factor in the housing market, which is the replacement value of residences. "About half the homes sold in June were foreclosures, and their median price was $113 a square foot. . . Lenders are slashing prices on foreclosed homes as the numbers surge." This is quite true. There are foreclosed properties selling for $60-$90 per square foot. The replacement cost to build comparable housing is around $100-$110 per square foot (even if the land is valued to zero). When properties are selling below their replacement value, there is a bottom in sight.

    To all of the doom and gloomers-- remember: It was never as good as everyone was saying; the contrarians took prudent measures. Its not as bad as everyone is saying.


    habib wrote on July 25, 2008 04:22 PM: I agree with Mike Heath below. Most sub prime loan is already blowing up. There are now a lot of people that want to go into foreclosure because they are upside down by $100-$200K even though they have no problem making the payment. Many of these people put little or nothing down so they have nothing to lose but their credit score. This crisis will only be solved when we begin filling the prisons with all of the realestate profesionals that commited fraud.


    roger wrote on July 25, 2008 03:44 PM: Excellant ideas....one more thought: how about forcing banks and mortgage companies to place underwater or negative equity homes on principal...not interest...only terms until they can recover. It would give people incentive to stay in the home. Mike Heath also has a good idea to allow a tax write-off for lost equity. Once the subprime mess runs its course there will still be millions of people with negative equity unless that problem is addressed as well. I fall into thact category; 20% down payment and now I still face a $60k deficit. What ever happened to the great american dream of owning a home?


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