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INSIDE GAMING: That thud? It's casino stocks crashing

Like a mistress who has lost her allure, the gaming industry is getting the cold shoulder from Wall Street.

Stock prices of the major casino operators have plummeted in 2008. In the past week, shares of publicly traded casino operators and slot-machine manufacturers sank to historic lows.


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  • MGM Mirage, Las Vegas Sands Corp. and International Game Technology, once the sector's most expensive shares, are trading in the teens. Ameristar Casinos Inc., Pinnacle Entertainment Inc. and Boyd Gaming Corp. stock can be bought for pocket change.

    JPMorgan gaming analyst Joe Greff often ends his investor notes by telling clients to remain on the sidelines when it comes to the gaming industry. Like they need any encouragement?

    Other research analysts are advising folks to pass on the gaming sector.

    "The stocks of casino operators have been taken to the woodshed in 2008 after a multiyear bull run in the sector driven by cheap debt, mergers and acquisitions, and consolidation," Macquarie Capital analyst Joel Simkins said. "Year to date, the eight casino operators in our coverage universe have declined 61 percent on average."

    Nationwide, gaming revenues have disintegrated. Through August, Nevada casinos have won almost 7 percent less than they did a year ago. Atlantic City's casino win is down 5 percent. Gaming revenues have declined 18 percent in Illinois, 10 percent in Colorado, 3 percent in Mississippi and 1 percent in Indiana.

    Macau gaming revenues fell 3 percent in September, the first time in more than three years the Chinese gambling market recorded a monthly decline. That news was not well received.

    Deutsche Bank gaming analyst Bill Lerner said the Nevada companies operating in Macau -- MGM Mirage, Wynn Resorts Ltd. and Las Vegas Sands -- could take a double slap to the face. Strip casino managers he spoke with said September revenues declined in the last two weeks of the month when the national economy worsened. Visitation levels fell as rising unemployment and financial fears kept customers home.

    Simkins added that September's numbers look worse than August for MGM Mirage and Las Vegas Sands.

    "We expect a very difficult third-quarter performance from both operators as well as poor guidance," he said.

    Lerner reduced the stock- price targets on several companies he follows. A quick turnaround is not in the forecast, even in the regional gaming markets.

    But he offered a ray of sunshine to investors.

    "If your time frame is reasonable, say 12 months, then these levels make a tremendous amount of sense," Lerner said. "If you have no tolerance for volatility, then stay away."

    Howard Stutz's Inside Gaming column appears Sundays. E-mail him at hstutz@reviewjournal.com or call 702-477-3871.

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    Mike wrote on October 12, 2008 08:19 PM: Uhhh...Did I miss something or did all stocks drop the past two weeks...If you have "tolerance" than most likely gaming as well as other sector stocks will go up. If anything this is the time to jump into sectors such as gaming and "Big Pharma".


    Bobby wrote on October 12, 2008 02:30 PM:
    Nothing is going to change as long as the "Corporate owners" of our government start bringing back all of "Working America's" jobs. There is no possibility of any kind of recovery because the "working people" have no more jobs that support them.

    The Government lied to us about giving tax breaks to the rich that would produce more jobs. These greedy #%$#@$$%'s have only reduced jobs so they could make even more money.

    The people of this country have been raped and robbed of jobs and wealth.

    And none of you care at all....


    2zero wrote on October 12, 2008 02:07 PM: Jan Jones is working weekends doing a donkey show at the glitter gulch. The girl working with her is a unlv student.


    eric wrote on October 12, 2008 01:22 PM: The downturn in the casino market is an obvious effect of the past few years, but now the industry has the ability to build on a foundation of sustainability. This will change the way that people view the industry. It may also help some of the brighter operators to find new income streams. This is a time for re-invention, and all purchases should be Triple Bottom Line Positive.
    www.egmgreen.com makes the only Eco-Friendly casino tables in the world. We also do energy consulting, co-gen, solar, wind, and LEED PM.


    Kent wrote on October 12, 2008 12:52 PM: I believe Mayor Goodman has to focus on building up Vegas as a future site for corporate headquarters and downsize his emphasis on gambling and entertainment. Since Vegas will be undergoing changes anyway, it wouldn't hurt to take a second look. Each sector would balance out each other. I read that Japan had a glut of hotels after the building boom and converted them into office space. It worked out fine.


    Manager wrote on October 12, 2008 12:14 PM: "We have laid off in all areas , excpet of course overpaid managers, and expect more to come."

    It's funny how the low level hourly employee feels the 'overpaid managers' have it so good. Did you ever stop to think that a $60,000 a year manager job - which is all salary, ends up being about $8 an hour when you consider the 60 hour work weeks, no weekends or time off, being called in on crazy shifts to 'cover' some idiot that called in "sick", etc.?? EVERYONE suffers in these bad times, no one suffers more than another. The 'overpaid managers' are abused just like everyone else.


    Fred Frazzetta wrote on October 12, 2008 11:05 AM: I feel sorry for my friends that are still working for Harrah's Entertainment Inc., because I hear that the morale at their properties is at an all time low, and that the customer service is as well due to the fact that there are very few employees left to service the guests. Gary Loveman should be happy because he got his money on the front end after the buyout by Apollo & Texas Pacific Group, and I am sure that he was not the only one to benefit at the top.

    But what else would you expect from a company that purposely put their valued Guests & employees at risk over a period of many years by performing illegal remodels which left behind, now well documented, public fire safety hazards in every room they remodeled. Along the way during the course of these remodels they exposed their employees & guests to asbestos and one only knows what else...all for the sake of their precious bottom line - under the fine leadership of Gary Loveman, Tom Jenkin, Don Marrandino and the rest of the "Good Old Boy" management team. Harrah's doesn't care about either their guests or employees - their actions over the last several years have proven this point beyond a shadow of a doubt.

    Hey Tom Jenkin, did you pay for all the stuff that came into Harrah's Hotel & Casino with your name on it, which had company po's on the packing slips? Did your buddy Tom Adams just happen to add it to the Engineering Department's remodel projects budget? You remember the light fixtures, kitchen equipment etc. that came in and was stored in the Teamsters storage area in the garage.

    Start firing the brass...the ones actually responsible for the mess in the first place...


    Over Regulated wrote on October 12, 2008 10:19 AM: i work at Caesars Palace,and can tell you that we have stopped ussing two of the towers all together. We used to be over 90 % occupied. We are not using about half of the rooms we used to and not filling those. We have laid off in all areas , excpet of course overpaid managers, and expect more to come.

    It is as much to blame on over regulation and treatment of customers, as well as the economy though. I have been in Las Vegas over 40 years and worked at Ceasars for over 25, and can tell you that the customers are tired of dealing with people who do not speak english and not being able to do the things they want.

    No Reason to travel here to get what they have at home.


    DMCVegas wrote on October 12, 2008 10:06 AM: Personally, I don't believe that Vegas is ever going to die out entirely. Things are going to be really nasty the next couple of years at a minimum. But the only hotels that are really going to survive are either ones like Wynn & Belagio that already have reputations set in peoples' minds, or the ones that still have that old Vegas feel. Either an old fashioned focus on gambling with cheap and decent food and comfortable lodging, yet not over the top fancy on any of those. Or whatever surviving theme hotels will be left standing. People are going to want escapism to a back to a happier time. Sure a few boutique hotels here and there will pull some people in, but they're gonna be shunned. Reminders of a time when no one saved, and everybody blew their cash on stupid, wasteful things. You'll especially see this with the next couple of generations of gamblers and tourists. Ones that are more frugal with where and how they spend their cash because they don't have it, and then current children of foreclosure families who will first hand learn from their parents mistakes of bad deals and burning through cash.

    The question is, which of the casino operators will have the vision to cater to this new group of people, and which of the neglected hotels get lucky enough to be revamped to suit the taste of future tourists? Because soon enough you're gonna hear that Vegas' heyday wasn't just with the Rat Pack, but also when it was that Adult Disneyland rather than just a bunch of repetitive buildings with generic slots and spas.


    kenodave wrote on October 12, 2008 10:06 AM: Contrarian, your views are flawed in that casinos do have lots of cash. But, they also have lots of debt. Debt that has increased interest rates that eat up massive amounts of cash flow. Those that are over capitalized (Harrahs, Stations to name a few) will have a difficult time to make payments against debt. They can only cut so many frontline jobs before service is negatively affected. Most feel that diminished service levels have already been achieved. With the global economy following in the footsteps of our own economy, look for the Strip properties to continue in their downward trend.


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