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Apr. 08, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Index shows local economy foundering

Almost all categories post declines

By HUBBLE SMITH
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL



Southern Nevada's economic indicators show no signs of recovery and suggest the recession will last through the rest of the year, a local economist said Tuesday.

All but one series of data in the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined from a year ago, dragging the index to 126.69 in March. That's down from 127.23 in February and from 131.94 in March 2008.

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    • If the recession continues throughout 2009, it will be the longest recession in Southern Nevada since the 1930s, said Keith Schwer, executive director at the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

    Double-digit declines in visitor volume and gaming revenue expose the weakness of Las Vegas' tourism industry. Fewer people are coming here and those who do come are spending less.

    "For us, it's lack of consumer spending," Schwer said. "It's going to take time for consumers to deleverage, to reduce their borrowing and buying. The same is true with businesses. They're in a period of deleveraging. They're laying off people and not making investments."

    The economic index, compiled by the UNLV research center, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation. March's index is based on January data.

    The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

    Rosemarie Hughey of Go-VegasFirstClass travel agency said she heard a woman from Texas say you can't blame the economy for everything.

    "Was she ignorant or just behind rocks?" Hughey said. "How much unemployment do we have? Where does our money come from? People who have businesses are struggling to keep them and people who have jobs are wondering if they'll have one tomorrow. Two-income families are down to one.

    "Why would someone travel to Las Vegas with a good conscience and leave this all behind and act like nothing happened?"

    Schwer said other economic forecasts that extend for a longer period of time offer little encouragement for improvement in 2009.

    One of the things he doesn't monitor for the local index is the stock market. It's a component of the U.S. economic index that merits more attention now, he said. The markets tend to move up before companies see any profits.

    The Clark County Business Activity Index dropped to 169.55 in January from 180.87 in December. Latest data from the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation show total employment falling to 880,000 in January from 921,400 a year ago.

    "Again, job losses can be expected to continue throughout the recession and into recovery," Schwer said. "With current unemployment at the 10 percent level, we face further hardship."

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

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    the economy police wrote on April 14, 2009 08:41 AM: Joe Friday: That is correct sir. Job growth is the last thing to recover in a recession / depression. The latest True Estimate is late 2011 or early 2012. You were awful close. We haven't seen anything yet. Soup lines, unemployment, foreclosures, homelessness, robbery, murder, suicide. Take your pick.


    Joe Friday wrote on April 08, 2009 10:10 PM: ...the recession will last through the rest of the year? Which year? 2014 or so?


    Suzanne wrote on April 08, 2009 09:14 PM: But they do LOVE the shows and fine dining! =)


    gman wrote on April 08, 2009 04:36 PM: Suzanne,
    Gay men do not like slots. That's a fact!


    Suzanne wrote on April 08, 2009 12:06 PM: Las Vegas is marketed to people with disposable income (much like the cruise industry). Maybe the LVCVA should start an ad campaign targeting the gay population since they have the most disposable income at the moment. Las Vegas is not particularly 'gay friendly' compared to other US cities, like New York for example.

    The cruise lines seem to be coming out of this pretty well. They've lowered their own costs, lowered fares, repositioned ships, eliminated some perks and from what I've read, are sailing with more than 80% occupancy ... some ships at 100% capacity.

    Maybe LV should look seriously at what the cruise industry is doing and follow suit? Afterall, you don't need to go on a cruise the same way you don't need to go to Las Vegas.


    NV_System_of_Higher_Waste wrote on April 08, 2009 10:51 AM: Keith Schwer, executive director at the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

    The University of Nevada is supposed to be about training the next generation of applied scientists. Why on earth does it employ freeloaders like Schwer? If Schwer wants to get paid for making economic forecasts, he and his bloated staff can sell a newsletter. NSHE is full of charlatans like this. Chancellor Rogers should eliminate the hundreds of millions of dollars wasted each year before he demagogues about "devastating" funding cuts.


    Mark wrote on April 08, 2009 10:51 AM: Where is Rossi Ralenkotter is this economic downfall? It's easy for him and his buddies at the LVCVA to take credit when the economy is good but when it goes sour, they blame the bad economy. Rossi where are you? HELP


    To the idiot below me wrote on April 08, 2009 10:29 AM: Nobody cares about your story regarding the firemen. Maybe we did have a slight intrest the first 10 times that you posted it. Now it is just annoying. Why do you post this in every topic, every day? Why are you so bitter, and where you fired from the fire dept or just denied because you couldn't qualify? Please seek help.


    come over to the county paramedic division, the money is great wrote on April 08, 2009 09:45 AM:
    i sit at home for almost 10 years now
    and receive a full retirement and paycheck every 2 weeks.

    http://www.lvrj.com/news/10284922.html


    Free Nevada wrote on April 08, 2009 08:56 AM: Award a contract for the new Transrapid TVE TR09 and let them hIre 10,000 to 20,000 local construction and civil engineering people, then watch how fast the local economy improves (both short-term and after it starts complimentary 318mph anti-airport convenience service between Anaheim Stadium park-n-ride/Metrolink station/vanpool-depot and MGM CityCenter without using a drop of oil).

    By the way, California is moving ahead with its high-speed rail (more like France TGV than mag-lev) between SoCal and BayArea...it was on the news out there last night. Most of the money for that system is coming internally from California, so it does not compete very much for funding with the SoCal-Vegas mag-lev system, but seems to be moving ahead much faster despite California's epic economic problems.


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