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Jun. 12, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Economic indicators rise slightly from April to May

By HUBBLE SMITH
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL



The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed a slight uptick in May, but it's still down 3.2 percent from a year ago, a UNLV economist reported.

Led by improvements in gross gaming revenue and taxable sales, the index climbed to 126.83, compared with 126.09 in April and 130.80 in May 2008. Seven of 10 data series rose, adjusted for seasonal variations.

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    • Separate indexes for Clark County business activity and tourism also turned up modestly for May, while the construction index posted another monthly decline.

    The evidence, though meager at this point, suggests some improvement ahead, said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

    "There's all kinds of people willing to draw conclusions," he said. "Nevada's worst recession since the 1930s is far from over, but perhaps it is coming to an end. It looks like we stopped falling."

    Las Vegas doesn't have much in the way of "green shoots" referenced by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, but perhaps there are signs of "desert flowers" here, Schwer said.

    The index must reach a clearly defined bottom and start trending up before there's any assurance that the economy is on the road to recovery, he said.

    The data for May's index showed month-to-month increases of 24.5 percent in taxable sales, 20 percent in airport passengers, 12 percent in visitor volume and 10.7 percent in gaming revenue, though all of those figures are down from the same month a year ago.

    The index, compiled by the UNLV research center, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation. May's index is based on March data.

    The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

    One event that will have a major impact on both state and local economies is the passage of the largest tax increase in Nevada's history, John Restrepo of Restrepo Consulting Group said.

    The tax package approved by the Legislature is nearly $1 billion, with historic reforms to public employee benefits, improved level of transparency in the collective bargaining process and a revamp of the state's "rainy day" fund formula.

    "These are all good things for the Southern Nevada economy," Restrepo said. "Some will say, 'Taxes are never good during a recession.' However, if you look at historical data, generally speaking, they're less harmful to a struggling economy than deep cuts in services. The nature of the current recession does not make it possible to cut our way to prosperity."

    A quarterly survey of local executives by the UNLV economic research center shows that they believe things will remain unsettled. Most do not see a substantial change for the current state of affairs, suggesting continued weakness ahead.

    Schwer will present his Midyear Economic Outlook on June 23 at The Mirage Grand Ballroom. Register online at www.cber.unlv.edu or call 895-3191. The cost is $80.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

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    RealityCheckNV wrote on June 12, 2009 10:12 AM: Helen Weils said:
    "I'M GOING TO STAY OUT OF NEVADA ALL YEAR AND MOVE MY LICENSE PLATES ON MY BUSINESS VEHICLES TO WYOMING ALONG WITH MY BUSINESS. "

    Do you need help packing? How soon can you leave?


    Jon Carry wrote on June 12, 2009 09:25 AM: The pretzel logic of the media is amazing. When the DOW was at 14,000 and unemployment was under 4.5% under President Bush, the media constantly screamed about how bad things were.
    Now that ZeroBama presides over a market that has been cut in half and 12% unemployment, the media talk about any little uptick as a 'desert flower' even when it is still falling.
    And could you possibly have found a dissenting view from the pro-tax insanity? The government is killing us and you quote a tax and spend moonbat.


    HELEN WEILS wrote on June 12, 2009 09:23 AM: "These are all good things for the Southern Nevada economy," Restrepo said. "Some will say, 'Taxes are never good during a recession.' However, if you look at historical data, generally speaking, they're less harmful to a struggling economy than deep cuts in services. The nature of the current recession does not make it possible to cut our way to prosperity."

    TYPICAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE LIBERAL DRIVEL!!!

    I'M GOING TO STAY OUT OF NEVADA ALL YEAR AND MOVE MY LICENSE PLATES ON MY BUSINESS VEHICLES TO WYOMING ALONG WITH MY BUSINESS.

    BLEED THE BEAST, VOTE WITH YOUR FEET!!


    Common Sense wrote on June 12, 2009 08:05 AM: "does not make it possible to cut our way to prosperity."

    Sorry, comrade, but you don't get to use pronouns such as "our" and "we" when disussing government and taxpayers. These two groups do not work together. They are not part of a team.

    Government simply forces taxpayers to pay more and more year after year for the same or fewer services. They do so under the guise of providing "more services." But after gov't gets the money, taxpayers quickly discover that gov't simply provides more pay and benefits to themselves.

    So, yes, WE taxpayers certainly can "cut our way to prosperity" by cutting YOUR share of OUR money. And the more you vote yourselves a bigger share, the more incentive we have not to give it to you, by cutting our spending and avoiding taxable transactions.

    We can keep our cars a few more years, instead of buying new ones. We can stay home and watch a movie on TV instead of going to the theater. We can cook a nutritious meal with sales-tax-free groceries instead of going to a restaurant. We can shop online for new goods that don't force us to pay sales tax, or locally on craigslist and backpage for used goods.

    In other words, you politicians voted yourselves and extra $1,000,000,000 of OUR money .... now good luck collecting it.


    doomsdayers wrote on June 12, 2009 07:33 AM: Where's all the doom-n-gloomers today?
    Out shopping?