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Housing inventory increase expected

Lifted ban means wave of Las Vegas foreclosures is likely




A wave of foreclosures is expected to hit Las Vegas as banks lift a voluntary moratorium that was extended from March to the end of May, though nobody has an accurate estimate of how many bank-owned homes will be added to an already bulging inventory.

The total number of homes for sale in Las Vegas declined to 16,202 in April, compared with 21,338 in the same month a year ago, Las Vegas-based SalesTraq reported.


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  • Real estate-owned, or bank-owned inventory stood at 14,722, up from 11,628 a year ago, but down from the previous two months.

    Housing analyst Larry Murphy of SalesTraq said he's heard there could be an inventory of unreleased bank-owned homes ranging from 20,000 to 30,000. It's an impossible number for anyone to "get their arms around," he said.

    "This thing is like a cloud of mystery out there. We can all hypothesize," Murphy said.

    Bank-owned inventory came down in March and April, and Murphy said he's waiting to see May's data to draw any conclusions.

    The country is still in the "middle innings" of the bursting of the great housing bubble, said Whitney Tilson, principal of New York investment firm T2 Partners. He recently published a 75-page report that said there's more pain to come.

    It takes an average of 15 months from the first missed mortgage payment to a trustee sale of the home, usually by auction, he said. The subprime loans that defaulted in early 2007 led to the wave of foreclosures in 2008.

    "We predicted in early 2008 that it would get so bad that it would require large-scale government intervention, which has occurred, and we're not finished yet," Tilson said.

    Given that other types of loans with longer reset dates are now starting to default at catastrophic rates, the "sober implications" are for foreclosures and auctions to extend into 2009 and beyond, driving home prices down further, he said.

    More than $200 billion in option ARMs are still outstanding, including $29 billion that will reset by the end of this year and another $67 billion that will reset in 2010, according to Washington, D.C.-based Zuckerman Spaeder. The average borrower's mortgage payment of $1,672 will increase by $1,053.

    Alexis McGee of Sacramento, Calif.-based Foreclosures.com said there's a "phantom" inventory of repossessed properties not showing up for sale on the Multiple Listing Service. Only about 30 percent of them are listed on the market, McGee said.

    Foreclosures.com counted 18,505 real estate-owned homes in Clark County through April, compared with 7,251 a year ago. Preforeclosures rose to 33,917 in the first four months, up from 20,363 a year ago.

    The foreclosure inventory in Las Vegas has dried up for now, Earl Crouse of Better Homes Realty said. He expects it to stay that way until the fourth quarter.

    Banks are "stepping up" to comply with the Obama administration's guidelines to keep people in their homes, Crouse said. Some banks are renting homes back to previous owners.

    "They know they're stabilizing the market by pulling back (on bank-owned inventory) and getting multiple cash offers for anything $125,000 to $200,000," he said. "Banks are going to lose anyway, but it's less they're going to lose."

    Tim Kelly Kiernan of ReMax Brodkin Group said the current foreclosure inventory is "being picked over pretty good" with lots of cash deals. Lenders are being more flexible in negotiations, he said.

    His research indicates that banks are indeed holding back hundreds of thousands of properties nationwide. There were nearly 500 notices of default filed in Las Vegas on June 8, he said.

    "That is just one day, so if we just do the math, more foreclosures are coming and fast," Kiernan said. "Unless the Obama administration does something to stop this, home values will continue to fall."

    Murphy of SalesTraq said he agrees with most of the conclusions in T2 Partners' report from a national standpoint.

    However, Las Vegas has been on the leading edge of everything that's happened in the housing market, from skyrocketing appreciation and home sales to the subprime mortgage crisis and foreclosure problems.

    "I think things happening nationally are six months behind what's happening in Las Vegas and Sacramento," Murphy said. "I think we've already gone through most of the pain in Las Vegas."

    Both Las Vegas and Sacramento have reported significant increases in resales over the past 12 months. Prices are still slipping, but not as much. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors showed a 1.8 percent decline in the median price for May, or about $1,700, compared with monthly declines of $10,000 in previous months.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

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    Bill wrote on June 26, 2009 11:44 AM: In my opinion, the government is not helping to solve the problem in any meaningful way, they are just delaying the inevitable and trying to convince a largly stupid electorate that govt. is the answer to all their problems. Remember that part of the reason we are in this mess is the prior "help" congress offered when it relaxed the standards for Fannie and Freddie to underwrite the govt. aka taxpayer guaranteed loans. Stupid buyers who believed they were going to get free money in the form of ever increasing home values with subsequent ATM refinance proceeds (tax free) were the other part of the problem. The other complicit parties were Wall street who was able to convince stupid pension fund investment managers (who run other peoples money and get compensated on performance)to buy crappy paper. Now the government is talking about how to make public pension funds whole on the backs of the taxpayer. Where is the government with regard to my decimated 401K?

    The market will inevitably exert its influence on pricing until the cost of owning a home is somewhere close to the cost of renting one. Since job growth is negative, there will be plenty of good opportunities to purchase housing at reasonable prices. Try a lease with option to Buy if you think values have bottomed or they will go up anytime soon. If not, either walk or renegotiate. The people that play the system to stay in their homes for free have zero integrity and reflect the same mindset of our elected officials, Wall Street salesmen and self interested investment managers.

    This is a sad period for our once great Country. Get ready to take care of yourself when the govt. saviour charade collapses in failure.


    David wrote on June 23, 2009 02:01 PM: In response to Chuck and David's response about bidding wars with the bank. I was recently in contract on a condo in LLV. Soon after I put in my offer, my realtor advised there was another offer and the bank requested our "highest/best" offer within a few hours of the notice. Yes, within a few hours.
    -
    I put in my highest offer based on what I thought the market should be(and is). Apparently, the other buyer pannicked and offered more than asking! That was 30k higher than my offer.
    -
    In my opinion, that was a total rip off by the bank. While I'm sure they had a 400k mtg on the property that they lost. The manner that they handled this best/highest offer created a fear & panick and over bidding by someone. We had no opportunity for meaningful negotiation. This over inflated the price way above mkt value.
    -
    So, I agree. Don't get into bidding wars or a highest/best situation. There is always another forclosure on the horizon to put a contract on.


    Dave wrote on June 21, 2009 09:39 PM: I can't wait until my 5/1 ARM resets. Like many ARMs, it is tied to the LIBOR rate. My rate will dip from 5.25% to under 4%! LIBOR stands for London Interbank Offered Rate, and are not based on Treasuries (unlike the 30 year fixed mortgage).


    Zippy wrote on June 19, 2009 05:40 PM: I am not wrong numbnuts, I have been doing foreclosures for 14 years. Yes, the lenders dont have to accept the mediation decision, but it still MUST go to mediation, which will back up very quickly. Once the owner decides to accept mediation, the foreclosure process stops, just as if they declare BK. V was right, it will get backed up quickly. Here is how it will play out within a year: Default records, mediation notice sent out. Owner decides to take mediation. Foreclosure stops (stalls) It takes 3 months or more to get a hearing. They decide there is nothing there, Lender gets the go-ahead to foreclose. Foreclosure begins again. Right before the sale, they declare BK. Foreclosure stalls again while Lender gets an order lifting stay to proceed. So lets figure this out:
    Stop paying mortgage to default recording 4 months.
    Wait for mediation hearing 3 months
    continuation of foreclosure 3 months.
    Declare BK, wait for lift (3 months average)That's on average 14 months without making a payment. Then they have to try and get these people out.
    Most of them have saved up some money and they go buy another foreclosure house.


    Green Dragon Regular wrote on June 19, 2009 06:18 AM: "Unless the Obama Administration does something to stop this..."

    Stop what? Natural market forces? It's a dismaying and telling statement when even the business-minded want to rely on governement to "fix" everything. Before any new laws are passed, the next new law should be a 10 year moritorium on the words, "There oughta' be a law."

    Our society has become big-government addicted.


    juliemarty wrote on June 18, 2009 11:11 PM: This whole stimulus package is just part of the governments long term plan to take away the power of the people. Are we going to do something about it or be lazy and think someone else is going to do it for us? It is time for a revolution. We need to overthrow the government and take our power back. Before there is nothing we can do about it. you should check http://obamamortgage2009.blogspot.com/2009/03/obamas-mortgage-modification-do-you.html#comments


    Alan wrote on June 18, 2009 07:03 PM: I strongly dis-agree with the comment that the banks are cooperating with Obama. I pay on time every month and have never been delinquent. I went to my bank for a loan modification with proper verification and they won't budge.


    croaker wrote on June 18, 2009 01:58 PM: I have said time and time again that the escalated property values of years past were the result of bogus demand and manipulation by the real estate industry/professionals. We are seeeing that now first hand in how banks are marketing foreclosures. Smoke and mirrors indeed, unfortunately most people who bought in are now removed from buying due to the credit pinch. Without these buyers and ability to manipulate demand our property values go nowhere but down.


    David wrote on June 18, 2009 01:34 PM: Yes,you are that dumb. What will happen is all the Wise and Smart Investors will soon realize after chasing a foresclosure deal that they have paid too much for the property. Never get in a bidding war, the(Banks win again) through smoke and mirrors along of course with the help of your local realtor!


    chuck wrote on June 18, 2009 01:15 PM: the banks have figured to start holding back on the inventory to create a demand and bidding war on the homes currently available...
    rather than sell for the deflated true value, they are inflating the price all over again... to get John Q. Public to fall for it.

    It started in California last December and now it's happening here.

    Are we that dumb?


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