Quantcast
Home manage Las Vegas Review-Journal
  Jobs Cars Homes Shopping Travel Weddings Golf Best of Las Vegas Photo   Search:

RECENT EDITIONS
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

sponsored by
Business


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Las Vegas Valley woes are expected to persist

More joblessness and credit problems predicted for remainder of year

Unemployment will continue to climb and more credit problems are likely to arise for the remainder of the year, but some improvement in Southern Nevada's economy is seen for 2010, a local economist said Tuesday.

Housing units permitted are expected to decline 55.8 percent, Clark County total employment is forecast to drop 5 percent and both gross gaming revenue and personal income are forecast to drop 2.5 percent, said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.


Most Popular Stories
  • Fraud with Portent
  • Debt-ridden casino operators told to expect pressure
  • REAL ESTATE: Las Vegas home prices stabilize as threat of foreclosure flood wanes
  • Expect to pay at Nugget's new tower
  • GAMING COMPANY EARNINGS: Station drops $455.4 million
  • THE STRIP: License approved for Aria
  • GLOBAL GAMING EXPO: Recession over? Don't bet on it
  • Union wants insiders to help pull Station from bankruptcy
  • Foreclosure wave continues
  • INSIDE GAMING: Missouri outburst hurts Lee, Pinnacle




  • "This is a severe, lengthy recession," Schwer said at his 2009 Midyear Economic Outlook at The Mirage. "Do I have an answer for how long it's going to go? No. Nobody does."

    At 17 months, it's the longest recession in post-World War II history, he said.

    Problems include imbalances in housing and credit markets, and cascading unemployment in areas of the United States that were previously not affected by the recession, he said. Oil prices and the lagging U.S. recession remain as risks to his forecast.

    Schwer said it's clearly important that the government is "wide open" to stimulating the economy, but the timeline for getting the money out is not as good as it could be.

    The story line for Las Vegas is a decline in discretionary spending on a national level, which drags down the vital travel and tourism industries in Southern Nevada, along with rising unemployment and the slowdown in construction.

    "I have every reason to believe unemployment will rise above 12 percent here in Nevada and 10 percent nationwide," Schwer said. "We're going to continue to see job losses in construction and weakness in the hotel industry."

    Residential construction is in a downspin, gaming revenue is falling short of projections and population has declined noticeably. After leading the nation with annual population growth of 4 percent to 8 percent since 1986, Las Vegas showed negative population growth in 2008, Schwer said.

    "Population is no longer a growth engine. More people are moving out than moving in," he said.

    The number of out-of-state driver's licenses turned into the DMV is down nearly 25 percent from a year ago. Schwer said he's noticed less traffic around the valley, even on normally congested Flamingo Road.

    The overbuilt Las Vegas housing market is going through a necessary correction. Of 685,263 total residential units in Las Vegas, 34,389 are vacant. Normal vacancy should be 2.76 percent, or 18,924 units. That leaves an excess supply of 15,465 units, which is going to lead to further price declines, Schwer said.

    "The only way to get rid of excess inventory is drop the price or bulldoze them down," he said. "Some houses (in California) have been bulldozed. I'm not advocating that here."

    Las Vegas has always been considered a cheap tourist destination, though that changed with the building of billion-dollar Strip resorts that charged upward of $300 a night for a hotel room. When times were good, people were more willing to pay for higher quality.

    "Have we overbuilt the high end of our market with respect to our customer base? We've changed the sheets. Of course they change the sheets every night, but the quality of the sheets are now 300 thread count," Schwer said. "We're offering a high-quality product. The question is have we lost the value-oriented market."

    Travel destinations are more vulnerable to other risk factors such as reduced airline capacity and security issues. Even an offhand comment by President Barack Obama about companies that received government bailout money holding meetings in Las Vegas hurt.

    Yet some indicators hold out hope for 2010.

    "Is there any good news? New claims for unemployment insurance have declined and home prices are starting to stabilize. We have not turned the corner, but this could be the beginning of the end of the decline," Schwer said.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

    Newsvine Digg Fark Technorati reddit StumbleUpon del.icio.us Slashdot Propeller Mixx Furl Twitter MySpace Facebook Google Bookmarks Yahoo! Bookmarks Windows Live Favorites Ask MyStuff myAOL Favorites

    Leave Your Comment 32 Reader Comments
    Terms & Conditions
    The following comments are provided by readers and are the sole responsiblity of the authors. The reviewjournal.com does not review comments before publication nor guarantee their accuracy. By publishing a comment here you agree to abide by the comment policy. If you see a comment that violates the policy, please notify the web editor.

    Some comments may not display immediately due to an automatic filter. These comments will be reviewed within 48 hours. Please do not submit a comment more than once.
    Current Word Count:

    Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.

    Traci wrote on July 08, 2009 02:29 PM: The Glitter has faded and the Party is officially over. Las Vegas is a dead end and will never be like it was before. I moved here in 2001 with no job and knowing nobody. I had 7 successful years, self employed making great money carving out a career I couldn't have had anywhere else. I was making $250 a day working tradeshow booths at Convention Center. I got out of debt. I was saving to buy the home I rent. The Condo I rent tripled in value, then was so high I could not afford to buy. Last year the bottom dropped out. My home dropped in value 75%. I could afford to buy it now, but there is no steady work! Rent, gas & groceries have gone up but my income dropped 75%. I am now in debt, and need to move somewhere cheaper and start all over....Its horrible.


    Eddie Gin wrote on June 25, 2009 01:03 AM: Memo to zombiedata: You know, that's the best thing going, you couldn't have said it any better. The tourist. That's what we need. The only reason Marijuana stays illegal is the alcohol lobby. Marijuana was legal in this country for a long time. I'm not sure when it will appear, but some day it will be legal. It's a shame that our law enforcement officers around the country lose their life trying to regulate and stop this drug, as the same law enforcement brothers did with alcohol in the 20's and 30's.


    wayne a allen wrote on June 24, 2009 07:47 PM: it was supose to say study the bond market not bomd market or should i say bum market. Lets face it the banks were more or less forced to make some bad loan to people who could not really afford these homes so standards were eased. now banks are smart enough to know that they cannot sell these loans like they use to because now investors will not pay like they use to, to make money. It has changed they are lucky to get 25 cents for every dollar they loan out. tell me would you invest and lose. well don't expect this scnerio to chang any time soon. Banks will make some loan like fha that are backed by the government or with the proper amount of down, today that is closer to 40% for normal financing. let face it homes that are selling here are foreclosures, short sale homes that most of them are being bought by investors or fha buyers with only 3% down plus closing cost. Lets face it even this month when Chrysler sold a ton of cars it was not because they built the best cars but they had to sell themat a loss to save themselves from a bigger loss. That is what banks are doing now taking their losses. Greed Greed what can I say.


    wayne allen wrote on June 24, 2009 07:16 PM: I have just read this economic outlook column and I found the last paragraph very misleading or not understanding of the realestate market as it is today and no real understanding of it's furture. all you need to do is go on the internet look up www.cyberhome go to almost any neighbor and see how much home prices have and are declining. it will get worst as more families lose their jobs here,like consolidated resorts just closed down it,s time share employes.plus every neighbor will lose more value as more foreclosers will happen. study the bomd market to see why banks are not lending out money, they don't want to lose their investments loans and not even the Presidents so called stimulus bill which gave Billions to them will force bank to make loans to help out.


    Leric Goodman wrote on June 24, 2009 05:55 PM: Although we still have a lot of pain ahead of us, some things ARE improving.

    1. People whose adjustable rate mortgages are based on LIBOR are seeing their mortgage payments go DOWN as LIBOR rates continue to fall. This means their home mortgages cost them LESS. That means that they have to earn less to make their house payment, or, if their income is stable, they have more money to spend.

    2. House prices have fallen to where they are once again affordable for ordinary working families. Several down payment assistance plans for first time buyers are about to begin, so "surplus" housing inventories should be reduced pretty quickly. This should reduce the downward pressure which the "surplus" inventory has been putting on market prices. This will help stabilize prices and will help stabilize the property tax receipts of local governments.

    3. Much of the "surplus" housing is "phantom stock" anyway. That is, it is on someone's books at housing, but on inspection, it is uninhabitable. That means that we will see some combination of a housing 0renovation construction market and a new housing construction market. This means jobs and sales tax receipts.

    4. Reorganizations in bankruptcy will allow casino operators who take advantage of Chapter XI to offer customers the discounted rooms, meals, shows, and amenities of old Las Vegas, bringing in more customers, and requiring more employees working longer hours to service the additional business.


    Randall wrote on June 24, 2009 03:05 PM: To JimboJones.Your exactly right with your blog.Everything in Vegas is overpriced and when this recession ends it will be again unfortunately.Vegas to me is the opitime of Corporate Greed.That is why one day Vegas will not be on the list for the most desireable places to live.No wonder people want to move out of the country.Because the U.S.A is overpriced .!!!


    jimbojones wrote on June 24, 2009 02:38 PM: If only they would bring back the $29 dollar hotel room and $.99 buffet things would all work out.


    locke wrote on June 24, 2009 01:03 PM: "You conservatives drove the economy off the cliff in the first place so no one cares what you think. It takes a lot of gall to criticize the way in which someone else is cleaning up your mess." Some data, please? On a state-by-state basis, low-cost, low-tax, low-regulation states still lead high-tax, high-cost, high-regs ones. It didn't take conservatism to bring down Michigan and the Northeast. The excesses of the regulatory, nanny state
    sufficed.


    the facts wrote on June 24, 2009 01:02 PM: .










    .


    leek wrote on June 24, 2009 12:44 PM:


    Read All Comments