The depth of July's decline amounts to little more than giving back recent gains, said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

"We're no longer seeing continued sharp declines," Schwer said Tuesday. "That suggests the free fall we saw in the economy is over with. It's bobbing up and down in the business cycle."

Taxable sales dropped to $2.37 billion in May, a 21.9 percent decline from a year ago, dragging the index down the furthest. Gaming revenue was next with a 7.7 percent decline to $747.6 million in May.

Contributing positively to the index were 456 residential building permits, $46.1 million in residential permit valuation and 65.8 million gallons of gasoline sold.

The economic index, compiled by the UNLV research center, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation. July's index is based on May data.

The accompanying chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

Looking forward, the opening of the $8.5 billion CityCenter project on the Strip could stir economic growth, Schwer said. Other positive signs are increased automobile and home sales.

Clark County's tourism index dropped 2.8 percent in May to 142.10 from 143.16 in April. Without a recovery in the national economy, tourism will languish, Schwer said.

"Again, back to the key thing is an uptick in the national economy. That's what we need to bring people back to spend money. Good marketing and advertising and favorable rates for rooms are all part of that effort," he said.

Overall, the local economist sees continued weakness in Southern Nevada with no clear signals that the local recession is ending.

"At best, we no longer see a free fall of the index and perhaps we're forming a bottom to the decline," Schwer said.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.