A new report places Nevada among the 10 states with the best economic outlook, but it's not CityCenter, renewable energy or a housing rebound that'll set the stage for future prosperity.
Rather, it's the tax rates and pro-business regulatory regime.
That's the analysis from the American Legislative Exchange Council, a Washington, D.C., think tank that provides state lawmakers with guidelines on free-market policies.
Here's the council's thinking: Nevada has no personal or corporate income taxes, no estate tax and the fewest public employees per 10,000 residents. Its property taxes rank as the nation's 16th lowest, and as a right-to-work state, Nevada doesn't have any mandates requiring work force unionization. Those factors made Nevada one of the country's fastest growers from 1997 to 2007, and when the recession ends, those attributes will once again help the Silver State surge.
Some local observers disagree, contending that Nevada posted big gains in income and population because it's in the Sun Belt. Plus, as long the state's economy and tax base lean so heavily on gaming and retail sales, tomorrow will bring dimmer economic prospects, they add.
"The thing we have lacked is economic diversification," said Launce Rake, a spokesman for the Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada, an advocacy group that supports additional spending on education and other public services. "If indeed the no-income-tax issue was key to economic success, then we would have more diversification. We are really still depending on one industry. If we're going to truly diversify and build a 21st century economy our kids can be proud of, then we need to do a better job of diversifying our tax base."
And Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said most businesses look at qualities besides taxes when they consider moving. All factors being equal, most entrepreneurs would go for the lower taxes, Schwer said, but a state's education system, availability of capital, proximity to important markets and even access to government officials can all mean more than levies do.
Still, Jonathan Williams, director of tax and fiscal policy for the American Legislative Exchange Council, said the evidence is undeniable.
Compare the nine states with no income taxes to the nine states with the highest income taxes, and there's no contest for growth. Nevada and its eight no-tax compadres handily outpaced California and its high-tax cohorts in income and population growth from 1997 to 2007. Gross state product in the no-tax states grew 82.4 percent, compared with 62.4 percent growth in heavily taxed states. Personal income grew 84.1 percent and 63.8 percent respectively, and population increased 15.6 percent and 6.3 percent respectively.
Nevada in particular experienced big gains, ranking No. 6 in the nation for absolute domestic migration (481,534 people) and No. 1 for cumulative nonfarm payroll employment growth (45 percent).
Williams acknowledged that Nevada makes up for its lack of income tax in other relatively high levies; the state placed No. 50 for its tax burden outside income taxes, property taxes and sales taxes.
Time and again, though, the council finds that income taxes are more important to entrepreneurs than any other kind of fee or levy.
"Capital today is more mobile than ever, and as we're seeing very clearly in states like California, capital will flee jurisdictions with high income taxes," Williams said.
Keeping the state's taxes low will be key to the state's future success, Williams said. But that won't be easy given the widening gap between revenue and expenditures. Just one month into the new fiscal year, July collections of gaming taxes, which fund 27 percent of state spending, already trailed budget forecasts by $10 million. Budget projections call for a 3.4 percent increase in gaming revenue in fiscal 2010. Nevada's small tax structure can no longer serve the public's needs, Rake said.
The council's study shows that, contrary to "the fluff of the fluff machine from the right-wing spinners," tax burdens and public-employee counts are already low, Rake said. That means the state has contingents who could pay more, and it could afford to add services. Rake's group wants a broad-based tax that "puts the onus on those benefiting most from what economic success we have." A corporate income tax would include national discount retailers, and mining companies must pony up as well with a levy on profits, he said.
"We need to get away from these silly Rube Goldberg ways of taxing payrolls and that kind of stuff. Let's just look at big earners and make sure everyone from banks to mining pays their fair share," Rake said.
Big taxes on big business haven't worked for California, though, Williams said. The Golden State has the nation's highest income and sales taxes -- and also the biggest deficit.
"Nevada doesn't have a problem because it doesn't tax enough," Williams said. "It has a problem because it spent more than the tax revenue that came in. When the private sector doesn't have cash flow, it doesn't ask for more money like legislators can with taxpayers. It cuts expenses first. Legislators can't expect taxpayers to pay the bill every time the government overspends in good years."