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Economic indicators continue to tumble

Analyst doesn't expect turnaround any time soon

The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to tumble, suggesting no near-term relief from the most damaging recession since the 1930s, UNLV economist Keith Schwer said on Tuesday.

The index fell to 125.91 in August, down from 126.12 in the previous month and from 130.57 in August 2008.


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  • Gaming revenue and taxable sales are among the indicators contributing most heavily to the index's decline. Taxable sales dropped 21.7 percent from a year ago to $2.45 billion in June and gaming revenue dropped 14.7 percent to $687.5 million.

    The lack of a well-defined upturn in the index portends continued economic difficulties over the remainder of the year, said Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

    On the other hand, the national economic index is turning up, prompting some economists to forecast a slight recovery in the last half of the year. Schwer said the U.S. economy is going to have to pick up before people start spending on big-ticket items and travel.

    "They're saving more and most of that's coming out of discretionary spending," he said.

    The severity and breadth of economic disruptions that led to this recession leave greater questions than usual about the likelihood of recovery, Schwer said. Current evidence suggests Southern Nevada will lag the U.S. recovery.

    The economic index, compiled by the UNLV research center, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation. August's index is based on June data.

    The accompanying chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

    Economic consultant Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis business advisory firm in Las Vegas said he's most concerned about the employment picture. With 13.1 percent unemployment, Las Vegas is above the national average. Also, the average workers' hours have been reduced by 4 percent, he said.

    "What's compelling on the other side is the number of initial unemployment claims has been stable or even falling, which is encouraging," Aguero said. "But for us, it's not enough to eliminate the drag on the economy that unemployment has created."

    Another area of concern is significant oversupply in real estate, both residential and commercial, he said.

    The Clark County Tourism Index has formed a bottom after declining since late 2007. Marketing efforts to keep occupancy rates up around 87 percent have been successful, though room rates have been significantly discounted. Las Vegas added to its hotel room capacity at a time when visitor volume is down about 7 percent.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

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    wettap wrote on September 10, 2009 06:07 PM: No witty rebuttal?

    I have nothing against working folk. I am one. I have decided to withhold my pleasurable experiences from Las Vegas until I am assured that my ability to make a living off of my hard work is not PUNISHED.

    I will continue to make money. Whether my employees receive a paycheck or Las Vegas service industry workers make money is up to the Obamessiah.

    Where or where is Patrick?


    meh wrote on September 09, 2009 07:48 PM: "What are we going to do with all these empty buildings?"

    We can hope the jobless recovery rents them out?


    wettap wrote on September 09, 2009 07:47 PM: Can't We All Just Get Along?: Elitist? Maybe. Truthful? Most definately.

    I obtained my wealth through hard work. My employees get a fair wage for honest work. That is exploitation, perhaps?

    I don't recall any of them sticking around after hours working "gratis" when I was putting in 90 hour weeks during the 1980's. I don't recall them putting their paychecks on the line in the 1990's when I risked everything investing in my business. I don't see them looking over my shoulder at 8pm every night as I go over the books and drum up more business that keeps them employed.

    Do I exploit them? Maybe, depending on your definition of exploited. But I have EARNED every last dollar that I DON'T spend in Vegas.

    Obama wants to punish me. Guess who gets it in the shorts when he tries to hose me.

    Ask an unemployed housekeeper at the Venetian.


    David wrote on September 09, 2009 07:04 PM: What are we going to do with all these empty buildings?

    http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-18969-Las-Vegas-Architecture-Examiner~y2009m9d9-Worlds-largest-hot-dog-chain


    Can't We All Just Get Along? wrote on September 09, 2009 03:22 PM: wetap if that is not an elitist statement...I don't know what is. Ofcourse it's your right to be that way but sure you obtain your social position on the backs of those who work positions like those you outlined... But hey forgettem' they don't mean jack cash is king and your the prince...what goes around...


    tarheel123 wrote on September 09, 2009 01:40 PM: Do any of you make money with your comments or opinions? If so you should be in jail or maybe I should because I am the idiot that has read and responded to them.


    wettap wrote on September 09, 2009 01:29 PM: Green Dragon:

    The "spenders" are going Galt. We are hoarding our wealth, as we expect the Obamessiah to start looting it soon.

    In the past, I traveled to LV 3 times each year with the Mrs. I have not been back since October 2008, and I don't forsee traveling back until AT LEAST the 2010 elections.

    So, I suspect LV will have to satisfy itself on normal size eggs for the next couple of years. Let the gang-bangers from LA and $39/night budget travelers drive the uptick.

    How long will the porters, pilots, housekeepers, baggage handlers, cabbies, waitresses, masseurs, cooks, and concierges wait?


    Meh wrote on September 09, 2009 01:17 PM: patrick-

    you're a presumptive one aren't you? I'm not a betting man- quite the contrary. If i was so assuming I guess I could easily have LOST money instead of made money. I "bet" no more on any market than I "bet" the FDIC would assume a failed bank. Being able to read a public company's financials is not the same as picking Barbaro to place in the 4th!

    And you assume I sit back? Ha! There is MUCH work to do!

    As to your third and fourth questions I can only imagine that powerful people know how easy it is to manipulate the masses. Their handiwork is on display for all that care to see. Divide and conquer? That's a lot easier than just plain old conquer. Use a small but vocal base as a force multiplier of sorts against another small but vocal base. Rinse and repeat as necessary.

    And while we certainly have our fair share of the dumb, I prefer to think its more a matter of keeping people placated, lackadaisical, and ignorant to manipulation than anything else. It's hard to fathom thinking when you can be so easily entertained by whatever poptart fad du jour is going on.

    There certainly are a lot of variables out there to consider.


    Green Dragon Regular wrote on September 09, 2009 12:59 PM: Everyone needs to realize that the "normal" of 1993 to 2006 was anything but. It was a massive boom cycle run up that was disproportionate and could only result in correction to sustainable levels... if the one trick pony Las Vegas economy can actually evolve so it CAN grow.

    Truth is, visitor volume, THE economic engine of LV is down less than 7%. The big spenders are gone and will be for a while. Conspicuous consumption is out of favor and extravagance, even by those who can afford it, is being scaled back. Reality has re-imposed itself in La-La Land.

    Sooner or later the goose stops laying golden eggs and starts laying normal ones- which, over the long haul, is more lucrative than a short-term flush run.


    patrick wrote on September 09, 2009 12:16 PM: meh:

    Taking profits during the last uptick?

    Sounds like you were betting ON the market eh?

    Imagine that.

    And now you're willing to sit back and "fight the tape"; good for you.


    And if this boss is the same as the old boss, then why are the people "fighting" him the same ones who were supporting the minion of the devil formerly in the White House?

    What are they; just dumb?


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