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Condo market points down

Potential inventory levels fall for first time since '04 boom







Potential supply is flattening and market demand is modest in Las Vegas' luxury condominium market, a local research analyst said.

Potential inventory levels declined for the first time since the condo boom struck Las Vegas in 2003, Brian Gordon, principal of Applied Analysis, a Las Vegas financial consulting firm, said in his first-quarter luxury condo report.

The report showed 4,214 existing units with another 13,409 under construction. Most of those have been sold or reserved. Total units that are built, proposed or canceled exceed 97,000.

Industry insiders are saying that many high-rise condos are being put back on the market for resale and, like single-family detached homes, they're not selling.


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  • One luxury condo broker said he walked the floors at Metropolis and saw lockboxes on nearly every door. Real-estate agents use lockboxes to access empty homes for showing. He said 70 percent of the units at SoHo Lofts are listed for sale.

    "Of course, every project has investors," said Aaron Yashouafar, developer of Sky Las Vegas, which opened this month on the Strip. "Our percentage of investors is substantially less than other projects because we had a hold-back period in the contract from Day One."

    Sky Las Vegas owners are restricted from selling for at least six months after buying, he said. About 80 people are making their primary residence at the 409-unit, 45-story building near Circus Circus.

    Las Vegas-based SalesTraq reported 213 escrow closings at Sky Las Vegas in April at an average price of $723,480 a unit. About one-third of high-rise closings are showing up for resale the next day on the Multiple Listing Service, SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said.

    At the end of the first quarter, an estimated 754 existing luxury units were on the market, Applied Analysis reported. The average asking price was $803,900, or $622 a square foot.

    Resale units that were sold during the quarter averaged $764,500, or $537 a square foot.

    The mix of properties available continues to determine market-average pricing, Gordon said.

    Eric Smith, owner of Corporate Housing by Owner, a Colorado-based company that matches owners of executive homes with potential renters, said: "There's so many condo owners trying to figure out what to do with their property. They're on the phone to us all day. It's a very hot topic."

    Smith, who opened an office in Las Vegas this month, said luxury condo rentals fit investors' goal to hold for long-term appreciation and can save investors from selling at a loss.

    "There's huge demand for corporate housing in Las Vegas, not like San Francisco, but it's a big market and people want to know what to do with their condo," he said. "If they furnish it, they can turn it into a hotel alternative."

    Vertical construction is becoming a more powerful element in the housing market, consultant Steve Bottfeld of Marketing Solutions said. Based on his research, the number of mid- and high-rise condo units closing escrow in 2007 will easily pass last year by 30 percent to 50 percent, probably totaling around 5,000 closings, he said.

    Condo presales account for 9.8 percent of the market, while speculative plans call for 56,300 more units, or 57.6 percent of the market, Applied Analysis reported. More than 14,000 units have suspended sales or have been officially canceled.

    Buyers at projects such as Krystal Sands, Vegas Grand and Icon filed class action lawsuits against the developer and the next potential lawsuit could involve Spanish View Towers, which has halted construction in the southwestern valley.

    "The luxury condominium market continues to evolve and respond to the latest market conditions," Gordon said. "Land owners and developers are dealing with conservative reactions by the investment community and potential buyers in response to recent reports that a supply-demand imbalance is inevitable."

    He said the vast majority of units in the construction pipeline have been sold and their total is "exponentially higher" than the present market inventory.

    Bruce Hiatt of Luxury Realty Group said: "We still think it'll take nine to 12 months to absorb the luxury condos coming on the market. Meanwhile prices are escalating. In the future, you'll never see $600 a square foot again."

    Of his 40 clients who bought at Sky, about a dozen are considering renting out their units, he said. Several investors are making their units their second homes.

    "People are saying, 'I'm not sure what to do with it,'" Hiatt said. "One couple from Tucson (Ariz.) bought in Sky and were going to rent it out. Now they've put their unit at Metropolis up for sale and they're going to keep Sky to live in."

    The Metropolis condo is listed for $1.6 million, or close to $600 a square foot, he said.

    Las Vegas real estate agent Sabrina Porras said she thinks investors will become more receptive to converting their homes to corporate rentals, particularly in today's market of stagnant home sales. She plans to rent out a client's condo at Sky for $3,500 a month.

    About half of Corporate Housing by Owner's 34 properties in Las Vegas are high-rise condos.

    Porras said owners can expect a minimum net return of $500 a month, providing an avenue for cash flow while waiting out the market slowdown.

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    Bubble Believer wrote on June 20, 2007 03:26 PM: Note today's business news report that Investor Kirk Kirvorian is pulling out of any buy in to the MGM stock which includes the City Center project. This is another serious indicator that this Strip hyped condo/retail market is on very shakey ground and Kirvorkian is no dummy...he smells a dead over priced Condo craze rat that will soon stink up the joint!


    Ed wrote on May 31, 2007 04:48 PM: All I can say is HA Frickin HA!!

    I love seeing unskilled speculators lose their asses!!

    Probably Some Guy who wonders when the Government is going to stop approving new construction while so many units sit unsold is one of those 'investors' and is counting on the government to bail him out.

    Real estate in this town is going to be down or level for the next 3-4 years. Longer if these 'investors' lose their primary home and move away.

    I bet you see condo units convert back to apartments because so many 'investors' are now broke and need a place to rent.


    Mr. Peepers wrote on May 31, 2007 12:15 AM: Ok now mark this date and the comments in this article. Three years from now these condo owners who are left will be screaming to get out of these over priced sky boxes. Yes international buyers seeking a safer haven for their corrupt gottten gains ( aka china, middle eastern)however, local schmucks who buy thinking its the road to wellville will be sorely disappointed. The condo melt down will make the current emerging real estate home bubble a cake walk....these delusional buyers are being hyped again by the same unethical developers, brokers and lenders who brought you the current crisis in our local real estate market.


    PT wrote on May 30, 2007 07:02 PM: "About 80 people are making their primary residence at the 409-unit, 45-story building..."

    Wow, that less than two units out of an averaged nine units per floor that are owner-occupied after closing. I guess at Sky Las Vegas, no one will hear you scream.


    Some Guy wrote on May 30, 2007 02:59 PM: When is the government gonna stop approving new construction while so many empty units sit unsold?


    Kyle Walton wrote on May 30, 2007 11:48 AM: check this out


    Bruce wrote on May 30, 2007 10:51 AM: With soon to be announced residential condos near Sky having strong international demand at prices starting at $2000 a sq foot, the luxury residential condo market will increasingly become an international one. The US$ is half price to the International buyers. Land, contruction and other costs continue to rise 15% to 30% over the past two years resulting in very little luxury condo supply in the future. Most developers are cancelling luxury condo projects in the core Strip area as they cannot make a profit at these new price points. Good news for existing supply over a longer time period. Those buyers who take a longer term view will be the winners over all the short term naysayers.


    Dave wrote on May 30, 2007 08:45 AM: At $500 per month, or $6000 per year, on 20% down or $160,000 makes for stellar 3.75% return !!!! You better hope price increase !!!


    Dave wrote on May 30, 2007 08:41 AM: The word is "speculator" not "investor".


    David Huntington wrote on May 30, 2007 02:48 AM: May they lose their investment just as investors have cost the average Joe thousands in extra housing costs due to home flipping. Real Estate brokers are starting to panic for lack of buyers and buyers will not return to the market until we see a drop of 25%.