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Economic index now pointing positive

Summer-tourism boost factors in September result

The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators has shown signs of bottoming out over the past six months, posting a monthly gain in September mostly on improvement in summer tourism data.

The index rose to 126.26 in September, up from 125.91 the previous month, as McCarran International Airport passengers, gross gaming revenue and visitor volume all contributed positively, the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research reported Tuesday.


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  • The index is still trending downward from its peak, but there's some hope that the rate of decline is nearing an end, said Keith Schwer, executive director of the research center and an economics professor at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

    "At no time has there been a clear signal the recession is ending," Schwer said. "On the other hand, the U.S. index has bottomed and shown repeated increases."

    McCarran airport's passenger count increased 3.5 percent in July from the previous month, gaming revenue jumped 6.2 percent and visitor volume grew 6.8 percent. Gallons of gasoline sold increased 7.2 percent in July.

    The economic index, compiled by the UNLV research center, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation. September's index is based on July data.

    The accompanying chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

    Guy Hobbs of Hobbs, Ong and Associates, a financial advisory services company in Las Vegas, said the local economy won't recover until construction becomes a significant contributor.

    "We've allowed our economy to be that way and allowed our fiscal system to rely on growth, even though the warnings have been out there for 15 years," Hobbs said. "As long as new assessed valuations were higher and there was construction in gaming and commercial, everything was great. Unless we change that system, we have to work on that part of it before things get back to being as robust as they once were."

    Overall business activity in Clark County continues to slide, Schwer said. A separate business activity index from the economic research center dropped to 161.92 in July from 165.29 in June.

    "We see no signs of the recession having bottomed out in this indicator," Schwer said. "On the contrary, further economic difficulty remains."

    The construction industry continues to drag the local economy down with a 50 percent decline in residential building permit valuation and 90 percent decline in commercial permit valuation.

    Industrial development in Las Vegas has come to a near standstill with less than 700,000 square feet under construction, Grubb & Ellis' third-quarter market report shows. Vacancy is running at 12.8 percent, or more than 12.6 million square feet of empty space.

    Xavier Wasiak, senior vice president at Grubb & Ellis in Las Vegas, said there continues to be a lag in the industrial market as tenants take longer to sign leases. They're looking to find better deals in other locations and possibly downsize at a cheaper rate.

    "Not much has changed," he said. "There seems to be continued apprehension about making any move quickly. They're taking many months to make up their minds."

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

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    Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.

    Lois Denaut wrote on October 17, 2009 09:47 AM: Why can't some of the Federal Stimulus Money and money given to the banks (our taxes) help families with jobs and/or income to buy the many foreclosed homes?

    Part of the loan should include money to pay for new flooring, paint, energy efficient windows, roofing, insulation,and desert water conserving landscaping.

    This way, jobs would be created to do all of this work, plus energy efficient homes would save energy costs for these families in the future.

    Our neighborhoods would be improved instead of empty houses sitting with trash and weeds, lowering the value of the other homes in these neighborhoods.

    Right now, it seems only investors are buying up these homes and turning around and renting them out.

    Lois Denaut, Henderson, Nevada


    Sam Dunnam wrote on October 15, 2009 01:20 AM: These articles are meaningless as is most of what is printed in the RJ ... what is going to drive the rebound? What else are these disingenuous boosters going to say? How many times have we heard "we are nearing the bottom ... the recovery is just around the corner." All one has to do is simply look at jobs nation wide ... what is going to get people back to work? Does anyone think holiday spending this year is going to be good? What is that going to do to the markets ... to companies completely dependent on those sales. Yet another round of layoffs and more bad news? Nothing is on the horizon ... its going to be a long cold winter.


    lol wrote on October 14, 2009 06:36 PM: DOW up, housing up...... All is well right. What I know is what I see. The media can spit out all the lies they like, but here is the reality. Business is down, costs, FEES and taxes are up, housing sales are subsidized by the government with tax credits, cars sales are too.

    It is all smoke and mirrors! The taxpayer assisted housing credit is going to only those that cannot afford homes. The Clunker credit only went to those that cant afford car payments.

    And here is the kicker, they say unemployment is the last thing to recover - Who coined that BS, When services or products are needed, people will be hire to do them or make them. Unemployment will be the FIRTS thing to recover.


    Anonymous wrote on October 14, 2009 03:19 PM: Irma - The month-over-month calculations are based on the July 2009 numbers used in the latest release of the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

    For the month of August 2009, McCarran passenger counts are down 9.8 percent when compared to the same month prior year.


    spot wrote on October 14, 2009 10:15 AM: And of course, GUY HOBBS, who does most of his consulting work for government entities wanting to spread out and raise taxes, says "well we have to change the fiscal system". What Mr. Hobbs is doing here is lobbying to change the tax system, in favor of his clients. You see, his clients want to have their cake and eat it too, which means that when times are good they steal some of our cake, and when when times are bad and we don't have as much cake for them to steal, they steal an even larger piece of what little cake we have left. It's a pretty simple plan really.


    patrick wrote on October 14, 2009 09:46 AM: angel:

    Here's just how that "hope and change thing" is working out:

    "Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers fell less than forecast in September after the Obama administration’s cash-for-clunkers program expired, signaling consumers are gaining confidence in the outlook for an economic recovery.

    The 1.5 percent decrease followed a 2.2 percent gain the prior month, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Sales excluding automobiles climbed 0.5 percent, more than projected. Gains in prices of goods imported into the U.S. slowed last month, a separate report showed.

    Stocks climbed and Treasuries fell as the report eased concern that household purchases, which make up about 70 percent of the economy, would sag without government support. While gains in spending from food to furniture suggest consumers will help pull the nation out of recession, Federal Reserve policy makers say demand is likely to be curbed by further job losses.

    “Consumers are a little less cautious and are spending again,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York."

    Thanks for caring!


    Irma wrote on October 14, 2009 08:31 AM: "McCarran airport's passenger count increased 3.5 percent" --- the RJ and Clark County has published reports monthly that the passenger counts have DECREASED. What gives?


    hecubus23 wrote on October 14, 2009 08:13 AM: Sounds like the same people telling us the housing market has hit bottom and the it drops again.


    angel wrote on October 14, 2009 06:26 AM: hows the hope and change workin out for you by 2010 vegas will be flat and i predict some casinos will have to close their doors nothing will get better until after the election in 2012 we got alot more misery who knows this town maybe dustbowl


    Tony wrote on October 14, 2009 06:18 AM: No one is addressing the issue of why do we keep getting in recessions. Until we do this. We will just keep getting into recessions.
    Some day it just going to have to be a depression.
    Economics it's just a big gambling table. With all the good and bad wraped up in one. Hey America wake up! Stop repeating this up and down economy. One of many examples is: greed. Don't ask government official to control it. Take the bull into you own hands. We can all benifit from this. I have so much more to say, but I think you get my point. Maybe?


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