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Home-market rebound may not be so near

Study suggests asking prices for local homes still sliding, not rising

Hold off on those reports that the Las Vegas housing market has turned the corner.

The Altos Research 10-City Price Composite Index was down 0.4 percent in October and 0.9 percent for the last three months. The San Francisco-based research firm showed Las Vegas asking prices at $169,958 in October, a 2.4 percent drop from $174,183 in August.


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  • That contrasts against recent data released by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors that showed the median price of a single-family home climbing to $139,100 in October, compared with $135,500 in August.

    The largest monthly drop in asking prices, according to the Altos Research study, occurred in Salt Lake City, where prices fell 3.3 percent to $382,970 in October. Phoenix was second with a 2.1 percent decline to $311,050. Las Vegas prices were down 1.2 percent.

    "The rate of decline has slowed in Las Vegas, but that market continues to show the largest decline during the downturn," Altos Research Chief Executive Offer Michael Simonsen said in his housing-market update.

    In October 2007, the median asking price in Las Vegas was $354,347, plunging 52 percent to $169,958 this October.

    Frank Nason of Residential Resources in Las Vegas said statistics are "kind of funny the way they're released." For example, Realtors statistics only include homes sold from the Multiple Listing Service, not all closings recorded by the county assessor's office.

    He's showing a median price of $140,000 in October, up from $138,000 in September.

    "I think they're bouncing along the bottom," Nason said. "Foreclosures have moved from lower-priced homes to all the higher-priced homes. The reason is people in higher-priced properties had more resources. They're running out. A lot of people are doing strategic defaults. Why become a debt slave?"

    Las Vegas-based SalesTraq reported the median existing-home price at $123,500 in September, down from $124,900 in July. Home Builders Research reported the September median price at $125,500, compared with $125,000 in July.

    "Have we seen the bottom in prices as some of the pundits have recently predicted? No one knows since none of us who follow the market have crystal balls," Nason said. "Is the so-called 'shadow inventory' of foreclosed properties going to flood the market or will the financial institutions be able to manage a measured release of properties to prop up prices?"

    Simonsen said the decline in the Altos Research price index would have been worse if not for historically low mortgage rates and the government's $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, which was recently extended.

    Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

    10-City Price Composite
    Metro area Sept. Oct. % change
    Salt Lake City $396,139 $382,970 -3.3
    Phoenix $317,796 $311,050 -2.1
    Los Angeles $734,941 $719,884 -2.0
    Portland, Ore. $341,382 $336,025 -1.6
    Houston $241,075 $237,333 -1.6
    Tampa, Fla. $227,176 $223,872 -1.5
    Detroit $159,339 $157,229 -1.3
    Charlotte, N.C. $263,205 $259,884 -1.3
    Las Vegas $172,068 $169,958 -1.2
    Denver $401,214 $396,686 -1.1

    Source: Altos Research
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    Wadsworth wrote on November 13, 2009 03:22 PM: you can't polish a turd!


    Home = Investment wrote on November 12, 2009 10:28 PM: Meh- you are sleeping in a Home AND Investment tonight and every other night. Sweet dreams.


    meh wrote on November 12, 2009 01:48 PM: If purchasing a house is your idea of investing, then YOU, buddy, are the moron, and deserve all just rewards. How's that "investment" working out for ya?

    Did you DYODD?

    Thought not.

    Hey, I heard something about nat gas....


    Too_many_RE_hucksters wrote on November 12, 2009 01:19 PM: Buying a house is CONSUMPTION. After 30 years, it has to be rebuilt, unless you've been rebuilding it (maintenance) all along. LAND does not depreciate, although there are times when even *that* is false (ie when a flood or mud slide ruins your lot).

    Home *flippers* should properly be called SPECULATORS. Not meant to be a criticism. Those who buy homes for X and rent them out for X/10 per year should properly be called INVESTORS.

    For far too long real estate hucksters have been snookering consumers and speculators into thinking that they were actually *investors*. A pox on them.


    Green Dragon Regular wrote on November 12, 2009 12:43 PM: All of you who think that real estate investments are somehow "automatic" in their ROI have your heads firmly in the sand. Adjusted for inflation ROI on real estate is far lower than most other forms of investment. ANYBODY who paid more than $300,000 for a house in a remote desert city with views of a wasteland bereft of culture, education, and morals got exactly what they deserved for their "investment".

    How so many of you couldn't see this coming belies the collective intelligence of Las Vegas. Anyone who doesn't think the commercial catastrophe is looming is even dumber. Without a more diverse economic base this town is headed for stagnation or decline. The luster of Las Vegas as a destination seems a little dull these days. The city's popularity is nothing more than a cyclic fad. It will be decades before this city sees any growth resembling the past twenty years unless the city can attract more than strippers, bartenders, card dealers, and slot technicians.


    You're wrong Meh wrote on November 12, 2009 12:19 PM: "You buy a house so you have a place to live and maybe raise a family"

    What an imbecilic thing to say. If you think that is the reason people buy a home then you're a moron. If anyone thought that their home would decline in value after they purchased it then they would remain renters forever. Buying a home IS an investment, whether it is done for the purpose of living there or renting to others. As such, there should be no distinction when deciding whether or not to provide hardship relief. By the way, I feel that there should not be hardship relief for anyone who hasn't lost their job. And even then, the relief should be in the form of a lower interest rate to help make payments affordable. Never should principal be reduced.


    meh wrote on November 12, 2009 11:27 AM: "every homeowner is an investor, and buys a home for financial reasons or hope of financial gain, not loss!"

    What a stupid statement. You buy a house so you have a place to live and maybe raise a family. If you're telling us otherwise, you've been mislead. Right into the slaughterhouse. Pigs DO get slaughtered, you know!

    Wait til the next wave of subs reset.

    But of course all this pain we've been feeling in residential will be completely and utterly dwarfed by the CMBS tsunami headed right for us.

    The system is working flawlessly. That is, if your idea of a system is to fool the masses into transferring all of their wealth to the obscenely wealthy global bankers.


    FED UP wrote on November 12, 2009 11:20 AM: Googled Startegic Default. Lot of good read from a lot of respected papers. Seems all sources are the same. Wife and I are considering this approach.


    curious wrote on November 12, 2009 11:15 AM: Ok, let's get this straight. The inflated property values of years past were nothing more than the market being manipulated by investors, realtors and mortgage brokers who realized a lack of regulation and oversight in the credit markets. They created a bogus sense of demand that pushed up prices on unsuspecting buyers. Many people who had faith in the supply-demand forces of an open market were deceived and now hold a note to an investment that isn't worth a bucket of sand. Sure many people made alot of money, and it stimulated the local economy. But this money has been transfered to the other side of a balance sheet and represents the debt people are now holding in the guise of underwater mortgages. John, perhaps you can explain then why the nation as a whole should bail out anyone? I mean they 'rolled the dice and lost' also, right ?


    Glass half? wrote on November 12, 2009 09:56 AM: Hey, this article is bull. Just last week Jim Murren told investors City Center will not only grow the market but fuel Las Vegas' ECONOMIC REBOUND. So stop printing these negative reports. Murren certainly wouldn't lie to his neighbors, employees or investors.


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