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SOUTHERN NEVADA ECONOMY: Housing shows signs of recovery

Sales of new, existing homes show increases from prior month

The Las Vegas housing market showed improvement in almost every category in September, including a $3,500 increase in the median existing-home price from the previous month, Las Vegas-based SalesTraq reported Wednesday.

The median price has bounced between $120,000 and $125,000 over the past six months, rising to $123,500 in September. It's still down 33.7 percent from the same month a year ago.


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Existing-home sales rose to 4,311 in September, the sixth consecutive month above 4,000 and a 32.5 percent increase from a year ago.

"I've always said that at some time we'd look back over our shoulder and see that the bottom hit in the second quarter," SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said.

New-home sales, which have plunged in the past year, increased to 459 in September from 429 the previous month. They're down 51.2 percent from a year ago. The median new-home price is $210,877, down from $211,350 in August.

New-home permits dropped to 407 in September, down 20 permits from the previous month and a 7.1 percent decrease from a year ago.

Murphy said he doesn't see the second "tsunami" of foreclosures hitting Las Vegas as many analysts have predicted. Some estimate that 20,000 to 30,000 real estate-owned, or bank-owned, homes are coming down the pike here.

Murphy is reporting an increasing number of short sales, or homes sold for less than the mortgage balance owed. The median price for a short sale is $150,000, compared with $116,900 for foreclosures, he said.

"Put your banking hat on for a minute. If I want to maximize the sales price for a home I'm considering foreclosing on, maybe I should consider leaving the homeowner in the home and selling it in a short sale," Murphy said. "The short sale (price) of $150,000 to me speaks volumes on what the banks should be doing."

Ken Perlman of San Diego-based Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors said more investors are coming to Las Vegas and making multiple cash offers on homes, beating out would-be owner-occupants who need financing.

He's heard stories about investors such as Montecito Cos. of Las Vegas buying hundreds of foreclosure homes, but he's not seeing that.

"I do get concerned about that inventory coming back onto the market," Perlman said. "They're not investor flippers these days. They're buying rental properties for cash flow and fixing them up."

Perlman said two demographic groups will drive home sales in Las Vegas. One is the 40 million to 50 million baby boomers looking for "active adult" communities. The other is the Generation Y population, born as early as 1978, who haven't had their savings wiped out and who qualify for the first-time homebuyer tax credit.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.

LAS VEGAS HOME SALES

  September Year ago Percent change
New-home sales 459 940 -51.2
New-home median price $210,877 $252,085 -16.3
New-home permits 407 438 -7.1
Existing-home sales 4,311 3,254 32.5
Existing-home median price $123,500 $186,400 -33.7


Source: SalesTraq

 

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The following comments are provided by readers and are the sole responsiblity of the authors. The reviewjournal.com does not review comments before publication nor guarantee their accuracy. By publishing a comment here you agree to abide by the comment policy. If you see a comment that violates the policy, please notify the web editor.

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perry wrote on October 24, 2009 08:06 PM: i wouldn't buy any of these piece of crap house anymore. all they do is slapped them up and go


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perry wrote on October 24, 2009 08:05 PM: it going to get ugly these next 3 years loan going to reset in 2010 2011 2012 employment oportunity low high construction going to dead next three years or more. apartment rental going to look good these coming years


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perry wrote on October 24, 2009 07:56 PM: don't let the bank and greater las vegas realtor feed u full of crap housing hasn't hit bottom when all those worker get laid off at city center guess what they are moving out of there houses


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My Arm Just Reset Too wrote on October 23, 2009 07:08 AM: My ARM also just reset....1mo libor (.24%) plus a 3.3% margin = 3.5%! No payment shock for me either....You won't find me walking away from my obligation simply because I've lost some value on paper. I can't rent a house similar to mine for less than my note, I still have the tax advantages, and still have perfect credit.

I'm in real estate, and the foreclosures you can buy today are junk. Yes, there are a few incredible deals....but unless you're paying cash and willing to pay above list price, good luck.

Keep in mind, the median is being brought down by some seriously distressed properties.


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Free Nevada wrote on October 23, 2009 02:43 AM: @Erika G.: If what Citibank, Lehman and others were doing was LEGAL then it's not really Bush's (and his enforcers) fault --it's the fault of the people who write the laws and that means Barney Frank who still heads the committee in Congress responsible for overseeing the banks. You don't really think president Bush should have to understand and extensively study "credit derivatives" ontop of all his other duties do you? He probably heard about them for the first time when someone burst into his office two months before his term ended and said "the ATM's are going to stop working if we don't print $750BN right now."


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Cover your tracks wrote on October 22, 2009 11:48 PM: Common Sense,

I had a busy day Let me explain malicious mischief to you. To begin with the house is not yours until it is paid for in full. Therefore it is not exactly your house to do as you please. Say you have a car you can't pay for so you strip it and let it be repossessed. Do you think any laws were broken, after all you bought it right?

You see you really are a putz! It is people like you always looking to skew someone making Las Vegas the cesspool that it is.


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Erika G. wrote on October 22, 2009 10:11 PM: Hey, Free Nevada: It was your friend the Bushwacker and his greedy cronies who got us into this mess. Bush & his ilk really know how to rip off the rest of us. LOL


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George wrote on October 22, 2009 09:58 PM: Headline on the lvrj.com today says

"ECONOMY: Bankruptcy filings soar in Nevada. Bookings rise 64 percent in state in the first nine months of 2009"

So my advice is do not listen to Murphy and others whose predictions change with the wind trying to stir up business.


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ARM Resets wrote on October 22, 2009 09:06 PM: Jodi, my arm is resetting. My rate will go from 5.25% to 3.75%. My payment will go down about $300/mo. I'm glad I have the arm, and the fact that it is resetting will not cause me to go into foreclosure. After that, the rate can't move more than 2% a year and it is capped at 7%.

People, now is the time to buy a house that will come along once every 80 years. In just two years, those who don't buy now will be kicking themselves! Just like things went crazy high in 2004, things right now are crazy low in 2009.

Go back and look at 2004, and everyone gave you reasons why housing would continue to go up like it had. I tried to say that it couldn't, and I was shouted down. Now everyone is saying that housing will continue to fall like it has, and when I say that it can't, I am shouted down again.

Sometime, there is money to be made as a contrarian!


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Free Nevada wrote on October 22, 2009 07:25 PM: @Dahn Shaulis, we don't have that many jobs available to cover all those people. The only way to refill those small houses is with people who bring their own money (retirees, traders, etc.) The hope would be that we could increase the number of jobs available, but with casinos booming all over the country and Nevada falling to the Dems last November, it's far more likely we'll keep going down like Michigan did and deal with the problem after 20 years of ghetto-growth.


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