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Poll: Leaving Las Vegas in the cards for some
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© 2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Updated: Aug. 29, 2010 | 8:33 a.m.
Native Nevadan Hilary Crowley wanted out.
The Las Vegas fundraiser and lobbyist wanted a change of scenery, and the state's struggling economy made for a depressing career backdrop. So Crowley moved four months ago to Salt Lake City, where she now is director of development for the Waterford Research Institute.
"I was ready for a bit of a change. I'm happy to be away. I feel like I'm in this little safe haven," Crowley said. "Unemployment (in Utah) is just over 7 percent, or half of what it is in Nevada, and Utah is building and hiring. It's shocking and refreshing to see construction again."
If a new poll is any indication, a third of locals would like to follow Crowley out of Nevada. A new Review-Journal/8NewsNow poll found that 34 percent of locals would leave Las Vegas if they could find a job in another market, or if they weren't underwater on their home loan.
A majority of 58 percent said they wouldn't leave even if they could afford to.
The survey featured a stark generational divide. Just 25 percent of locals over 50 said they would relocate given the opportunity, while 42 percent of people under 50 said they would grab the chance to flee, a gap that experts attributed to retirees' smaller home loans and guaranteed fixed incomes.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll among 405 registered voters in Clark County. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said the results should cause concern among the state's business and government leaders.
Coker conducted similar surveys in Florida from 2006 to 2009, a period that brought big property-tax increases, several major hurricanes and a housing collapse similar to Nevada's.
The number of Floridians considering a move rose from roughly 25 percent to around 35 percent.
At the same time, in-migration to Florida stalled as out-migration picked up. So there is a correlation between people wanting to leave and people actually leaving, Coker said.
"You could argue whether (out-migration) is good or bad, because if more people left, there'd be fewer people looking for jobs," Coker said. "But when people leave, their dollars go with them."
Experts already see signs of a shrinking community.
Brian Gordon, a principal in research and consulting firm Applied Analysis, said the Las Vegas Valley's population edged down about 1 percent in the last year, after two decades of nation-leading population growth that often exceeded 5 percent annually.
It's natural that locals would want to leave amid 14.8 percent unemployment, Gordon said. After all, job opportunities prove the primary motivation for most relocations to Southern Nevada. With career prospects dwindling, some locals see no reason to hang around.
"There's always the concept that the grass is greener," Gordon said.
"A large share of the population is frustrated with their current work or financial situation. When you factor in home values, the tendency would be to respond positively when you're asked if you want to look elsewhere to live."
But it's not just about jobs and upside-down mortgages.
In a Facebook posting seeking comments for this story, respondents popped off on everything from the heat and scarce trees to "driving down the road and seeing tits and ass on billboards."
Even those complaints probably trace back to the economy, Gordon said. Professional dissatisfaction can magnify petty grievances, like the way someone always loved their mate's dorky laugh -- until they decided it was time for a divorce.
Still, most locals said they would stick with Las Vegas.
After coming and going for the better part of three decades, Las Vegan Stacie Frazier said she is finally here permanently.
"My family is all settled here now, and I can't imagine doing my line of work anywhere else," Frazier said. "Vegas just fits my boudoir photography business like no other city could."
Debbie Harris, a social-media expert and developer for Exclusive Realty, moved here in 2006 from Connecticut, mostly to be near family. Her mother, her father and stepmother, an aunt and uncle and her brother all moved to Las Vegas in phases beginning roughly 15 years ago.
What does Harris love about Las Vegas?
Ah, where to begin? She enjoys her job, and the fellowship she has found in the Las Vegas Rotary. She indulges in regular hikes in the nearby Spring Mountains.
The heat this summer has been a bear, she acknowledged, but she can eat hamburgers outside without drenching herself in bug repellent. And what's better than lording a 72-degree February day over friends back East?
"It doesn't surprise me so many people say they want to move, but I think they're dreaming," Harris said. "I don't think many places are much better off than Las Vegas. I think the city will have a stronger, faster recovery, because people want to come where it's warm."
Such sentiments make it unlikely Las Vegas will wither away, and after perhaps a few more rough years, the city's population growth should revive, Coker said.
Gordon agreed, noting that corporations, governments and individuals have invested billions in the local economy, and they aren't likely to abandon those assets.
While some locals want out, the market dynamics that led to the city's explosive growth in the 1990s and early 2000s still exist. Gordon cited affordable housing and an overall low cost of living in particular.
Even Crowley visits Las Vegas once a month, and said she would return to Las Vegas some day, especially if an "amazing" job offer comes her way.
Harris, for her part, has decided she is in Las Vegas for the long haul. But her decision to stay rests on a force more potent than the economy, a power more unyielding than the weather, an obstacle taller than Mount Charleston.
"If I moved," she said, "my mother would literally kill me."
Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4512.
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Amen to that Long Time. I was born here 31 years ago and raised my entire life here and have watched this city grow from hardly anything. I am never leaving and sure wouldn't shed a tear if the crybabies who complain about our city packed up and left and never came back even for a visit.
Is it any wonder that the older folks, more established and more economincally stable want to stay, and the younger idiots who bought more house than they could afford want to leave? That's because they just HAD to live in Las Vegas, prolly due to their last wonderful time spent here.
I say get out, LV was much nicer and safer before all these new people corrupted the place.
Harry Reid will not bring us back to prosperity by passing bill after bill of increased federal spending. He is the Senate Majority Leader and most certainly has the power to push this country into bankruptcy, which is what he is doing. He is not concerned that Nevada has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation, the highest unemployment in the nation and the highest number of bankruptcies in the nation. What he is concerned about is pleasing Obama and Pelosi and pushing their expensive social programs. Now they need to raise taxes to pay for all those new programs and bailouts? Harry Reid has lost touch with Nevada. We now have an opportunity to stop this spending spree in Washington and we should take it. That is why I am voting for Sharron Angle.
Sharoon will make sure of one thing; that you don't get your social security if she can help it. Oh, and she'll try to make sure that you children don't get educated, that your food isn't inspected, that oil companies can dump oil or anything else they want to dump into your water, that coal companies can strip mine, and pump toxic chemicals into the air and water, make sure that prisoners get massages, make sure that the unemployed get no benefits, make sure that we enter MORE wars of excursion into countries where we have no business being. Its pretty simple, but if that appeals to you; vote for the crazy woman.
I think the Republican governor has a lot to do with the condition of the state. He seems to be really good at one thing--chasing women. Sort of like the Republican Senator.
Walker: How exactly is this miracle cure going to work when Harry Reid leaves office? I'm just curious if you could articulate on that a little bit?
Funny - when things were good for so many years before 2008 no one was on here posting "oh I love Harry Reid, he is just sooo great." Now that times are tough (after an extremely good, long ride where most people experienced quite a bit of prosperity), all of a sudden it's one persons fault. It has nothing to do with our other Senator, or any of the shady business people that ran up home prices, gave out unjustified loans, built things that should have never been built... Nope... it's apparently one persons fault. Harry Reid. Give me a break... no one person is powerful enough to cause the crisis that we are in... it took a lot of people to wreck this place.. When will everyone wake up and stop pointing fingers?
When Harry Reid leaves office, the numbers will improve. The biggest obstacle to growth and full employment will be gone back to Searchlight. I am voting for Sharron.
Great, if 1/3 of the population leaves our unemployemnt numbers will fall and NV can again boast a robust economy!
The way it really looks, the numbers as far as 1/3 of population= "Thinking of moving out", My at a glance at the whole situation, I would say a lot higher. Almost every part of the city, you will run into people want to get out of this economic bottomless pit. Therefore I question the numbers, and the same as the CPI, Unemployment numbers are basically rigged to make us feel better or not to panic. But the TRUTH is better than "False Hope".