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January 2008 Nevada Democratic Caucus Poll

500 likely Democratic caucus attendees were interviewed by telephone January 14-16, 2008, by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. The margin for error is plus or minus 4.5%.


STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION:

QUESTION: I am going to read a list of names. The first (next) name is _____________. Do you recognize that name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

RECOGNIZE
FAVORABLE		 RECOGNIZE
UNFAVORABLE 		RECOGNIZE
NEUTRAL		 DON'T
RECOGNIZE
Hillary Clinton 66% 20% 14% -
Barack Obama 65% 15% 20% -
John Edwards 51% 19% 29% 1%

QUESTION: If the 2008 Nevada Democratic caucus were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote: (ORDER ROTATED)

SEX AGE RACE REGION UNION?
STATE MEN WOMEN <50 50+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC CLARK WASHOE RURAL YES NO
Hillary Clinton 41% 30% 49% 34% 46% 42% 18% 50% 39% 44% 44% 30% 44%
Barack Obama 32% 37% 28% 39% 27% 28% 65% 29% 34% 27% 28% 37% 31%
John Edwards 14% 14% 14% 15% 13% 17% 3% 8% 13% 14% 17% 21% 12%
Dennis Kucinich 3% 5% 1% 3% 3% 4% - - 3% 3% 3% - 4%
Undecided (NOT READ) 10% 14% 8% 9% 11% 9% 14% 13% 11% 12% 8% 12% 9%

(IF THEY VOTED FOR A CANDIDATE) QUESTION: At this point, would you say you will probably stick with that choice, or are that you still might change your mind?

ALL CLINTON
VOTERS		 OBAMA
VOTERS		 EDWARDS
VOTERS
STICK W/CHOICE 76% 83% 73% 61%
MIGHT CHANGE MIND 24% 17% 27% 39%

QUESTION: As you may know, if a candidate fails to get at least 15% at a precinct caucus their supporters can switch and choose to caucus with those backing other candidates or declare themselves uncommitted. If the candidate you are supporting fails to reach the 15% threshold at your precinct, would you switch to another candidate or declare yourself uncommitted?

EDWARDS
VOTERS		 KUCINICH
VOTERS
Back Other Candidate 70% 33%
Uncommitted 26% 58%
Not Sure 4% 8%


(IF "BACK OTHER) QUESTION: Which candidate would become your second choice?

EDWARDS
VOTERS		 KUCINICH
VOTERS
Clinton 41% -
Obama 54% 50%
Edwards - 50%
Kucinich - -
Not Sure 5% -


(REALLOCATION OF EDWARDS & KUCINICH SUPPORTERS - ALL CURRENTLY GETTING LESS THAN 15% STATEWIDE - CUMULATIVE RESULTS WHEN ADDED TO THOSE ALREADY VOTING FOR CLINTON & OBAMA).

Clinton 45%
Obama 38%
Uncommitted 6%
Undecided 11%

QUESTION: Which ONE of the following qualities are you most looking for in deciding which candidate to support? Someone who: (ORDER ROTATED)

32% cares about the issues I care about
20% represents change and a new approach
17% is honest and trustworthy
16% has the right experience
11% has the best chance to win in November
4% Other/Not Sure (NOT READ)


CHANGE ISSUES EXPERIENCE HONEST
CLINTON 10% 39% 84% 26%
OBAMA 62% 28% 3% 47%
EDWARDS 21% 19% 7% 8%
KUCINICH - 5% - 4%
UNDECIDED 7% 9% 6% 15%


QUESTION: Which ONE of the following issues do you feel is MOST important: (ORDER ROTATED)

The Economy & Jobs 32%
Iraq 20%
Health care 17%
The Environment, Energy & Climate Change 13%
Social Security 9%
National Security or Terrorism 4%
Other/Not Sure (NOT READ) 5%


IRAQ ECONOMY HEALTH CARE
CLINTON 33% 51% 52%
OBAMA 30% 26% 29%
EDWARDS 20% 13% 9%
KUCINICH 4% 3% -
UNDECIDED 13% 7% 10%

DEMOGRAPHICS

SEX
Men - 40%
Women - 60%

AGE
<50 - 43%
50+ - 57%

RACE
White/Caucasian - 74%
Black/African-American - 10%
Hispanic/Latino - 15%
Other/Refused - 1%

UNION HOUSEHOLD?
Yes - 21%
No - 79%

REGION
Clark County - 65%
Washoe County - 18%
Rural Nevada - 17%