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OCTOBER 2009 POLLS

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

I am going to read you a list of public officials. The first (next) name is _____________. Do you recognize that name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

  RECOGNIZE
FAVORABLE
RECOGNIZE
UNFAVORABLE
RECOGNIZE
NEUTRAL
DON'T
RECOGNIZE
Oscar Goodman 49% 9% 28% 14%
Barack Obama 46% 43% 11% -
Brian Sandoval 38% 7% 36% 19%
Harry Reid 38% 50% 12% -
Sue Lowden 31% 15% 29% 25%
Danny Tarkanian 30% 11% 40% 19%
John Ensign 23% 43% 32% 2%
Rory Reid 21% 29% 33% 17%
Jim Gibbons 14% 51% 33% 2%

 

300 REPUBLICAN VOTERS

QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican primary election for Governor were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ORDER ROTATED)

Brian Sandoval 41%
Jim Gibbons 20%
Michael Montandon 4%
Undecided (NOT READ) 35%

QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican primary election for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ORDER ROTATED)

Sue Lowden 23%
Danny Tarkanian 21%
Sharron Angle 9%
Bill Parson 1%
Robin Titus 1%
Mike Wiley 1%
Chuck Kozak -
John Chachas -
Mark Amodei -
Undecided (NOT READ) 44%

QUESTION: If John Ensign were to resign from the U.S. Senate, which one of the following Republicans would you like Governor Jim Gibbons to appoint to fill the vacant seat? (ORDER ROTATED)

Dean Heller 24%
Brian Sandoval 17%
Danny Tarkanian 17%
Sue Lowden 14%
Jim Gibbons 4%
Someone else (NOT READ) 3%
Not Sure (NOT READ) 21%

ALL VOTERS

QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Harry Reid, the Democrat and Danny Tarkanian, the Republican?

  STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND CLARK NORTH NV
TARKANIAN 48% 54% 42% 15% 86% 52% 45% 55%
H. REID 43% 37% 49% 77% 7% 35% 44% 34%
UNDECIDED 11% 9% 13% 8% 7% 13% 11% 11%

QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Harry Reid, the Democrat and Sue Lowden, the Republican?

  STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND CLARK NORTH NV
LOWDEN 49% 56% 42% 18% 85% 52% 45% 58%
H. REID 39% 33% 45% 70% 7% 28% 44% 31%
UNDECIDED 12% 11% 13% 12% 8% 20% 11% 11%

QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rory Reid, the Democrat and Jim Gibbons, the Republican?

  STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND CLARK NORTH NV
R. REID 49% 42% 56% 78% 24% 31% 54% 38%
GIBBONS 37% 45% 29% 10% 65% 45% 33% 46%
UNDECIDED 14% 13% 15% 12% 11% 24% 13% 16%

QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rory Reid, the Democrat and Brian Sandoval, the Republican?

  STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND CLARK NORTH NV
SANDOVAL 50% 57% 43% 18% 85% 55% 45% 60%
R. REID 33% 28% 38% 62% 3% 24% 38% 24%
UNDECIDED 17% 15% 19% 20% 12% 21% 17% 16%

QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rory Reid, the Democrat, Jim Gibbons, the Republican, and Oscar Goodman, an Independent?

  STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND CLARK NORTH NV
GOODMAN 36% 34% 38% 30% 35% 52% 46% 16%
R. REID 27% 19% 35% 56% 3% 8% 28% 25%
GIBBONS 24% 33% 15% 4% 48% 24% 18% 36%
UNDECIDED 13% 14% 12% 10% 14% 16% 8% 23%

QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rory Reid, the Democrat, Brian Sandoval, the Republican, and Oscar Goodman, an Independent?

  STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND CLARK NORTH NV
SANDOVAL 33% 40% 26% 12% 57% 38% 25% 49%
GOODMAN 33% 31% 35% 30% 33% 41% 43% 14%
R. REID 25% 19% 31% 50% 4% 7% 27% 22%
UNDECIDED 9% 10% 8% 8% 6% 14% 5% 15%

QUESTION: If the 2012 election for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote to re-elect incumbent John Ensign, would you consider voting for a challenger, or would you definitely vote to replace Ensign?

  STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND
RE-ELECT 22% 28% 16% 7% 38% 28%
CONSIDER 22% 26% 18% 24% 25% 13%
REPLACE 44% 37% 51% 60% 23% 45%
NOT SURE 12% 11% 13% 9% 14% 14%


HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 6 through October 8, 2009. A total of 500 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.

This section of the survey also includes an over-sampling of 300 Republican voters. These over-sampled voters were only asked the questions relative to the Republican primary election and not the other statewide questions dealing with the general election and state issues. The margin for error on the GOP primary results is plus or minus 6%.

SAMPLE FIGURES

Men - 242 (48%)
Women - 258 (52%)
Democrats - 220 (44%)
Republicans 181 (36%)
Independents 99 (20%)

REGION

Clark County - 335 interviews
Washoe County - 95 interviews
Rural Nevada - 70 interviews