"Republican voters, I think, are sitting back and waiting for things to sort out a bit more," said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll. "Nobody's captivated them yet, but I don't think anybody's turned them away either. They're still trying to figure out their best option."

The poll of presidential preferences surveyed 300 Republican and 300 Democratic voters who indicated they were likely to participate in the Nevada caucuses. It was conducted Tuesday through Thursday and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Lack of a Republican consensus can be seen by the fact that no candidate attracted so much as 30 percent of the poll respondents.

Giuliani, the leader, drew 28 percent of the vote. Thompson, the actor and former Tennessee senator, got 23 percent.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who previously had seemed to be rising among Nevada Republicans, received 17 percent.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, once the odds-on favorite, drew just 9 percent.

No other candidate had more than 2 percent, while 20 percent of Republicans said they were undecided, an option that was not offered by poll takers.

Republican polls in Nevada have been all over the map. Giuliani, Thompson, Romney and McCain have all led at least one survey over the past year.

A poll conducted just days before this one by a different organization had Giuliani and Romney virtually tied, with 31 percent and 30 percent respectively, while Thompson pulled 18 percent and McCain 8 percent.

Coker said he'd all but write off McCain at this point but considered the other three competitive. Even politically active Republicans at this point may be giving pollsters one answer one day and another answer the next as they try to sort out the field, he said.

"I recently went to dinner at the golf club I belong to," Coker, who lives in Florida, said by way of anecdotal illustration. "It's full of old, retired Florida Republicans, and nobody's committed to anybody. They know who's running. They know a little bit about everybody. They know some things they like and some things they don't about each of them. But nobody's got a bumper sticker on their car."

On the Democratic side, the poll showed some jostling for second place but no change to the basic story line that has held since the campaign began: New York Sen. Clinton ahead by double digits.

Clinton took 39 percent of the Democrats surveyed, nearly double the 21 percent garnered by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards had 9 percent of the vote and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson 8 percent, while 20 percent of Democrats said they were undecided.

The other recent poll put Clinton even higher, with 51 percent, while Edwards was second and Obama third.

Coker said who's in second doesn't mean much when the first-place candidate has an 18-point lead.

"The only thing that will change these numbers is if something happens prior to Nevada to shake up the race," he said. "If Hillary loses Iowa, it might change the equation. Would it be enough to cost her the caucus? Who knows."

University of Nevada, Las Vegas political scientist David Damore agreed with the assessment that Clinton will be hard to topple.

"It will be interesting to see if it tightens up (as the caucus nears), but it's going to be hard to beat her unless she does something really stupid, and I don't think she's programmed for that," he said.

Obama's 21 percent is the best he's done here, but "if he only ends up with a bunch of second-place finishes, that's not good enough," Damore said. "Eventually, he has to break through and beat her somewhere, and I don't know where. It's probably not Nevada."

Damore was surprised to see Thompson drawing nearly a quarter of the vote. The late entrant to the race has been widely considered underwhelming since he dove into the field with high expectations.

Damore agreed that the Republican field remains wide open, and noted an irony: The Democratic candidates have been pouring resources into a state that doesn't look competitive for them, while the Republicans have all but ignored Nevada despite its up-for-grabs status.

The Review-Journal poll also measured the degree to which the candidates might appeal to the electorate at large if nominated.

A pool of 625 likely general-election voters from around the state, including independents, was asked if they would "at least consider voting for" a given candidate, or "would ... not consider voting for him/her under any circumstances."

In every case, the percentage of "would" and "would not" respondents fell between 45 percent and 55 percent, indicating that Nevada remains a closely divided state.

However, two candidates registered under 50 percent in the "would" category: Clinton, with 46 percent, and McCain, with 49 percent. Romney was precisely 50-50. All the other candidates would at least receive consideration from a majority of the electorate.

The Clinton campaign has had to contend with the persistent impression that the former first lady is a polarizing figure, so deeply disliked by so many voters that she can't change enough minds to win in November 2008. This poll reinforces that idea.

Although 82 percent of Democrats would consider Clinton, just 10 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents said they would give her a chance.

By contrast, 26 percent of Republicans would take a look at Obama, 19 percent Edwards and 22 percent Richardson.

Men seemed especially repelled by Clinton. Just a third, 34 percent, said they might be willing to vote for her; the lowest percentage of men who would consider any other candidate was 43, for Edwards.

When the poll pitted Clinton against the top three Republicans head-to-head, the results were no less discouraging for her chances of carrying this swing state.

Giuliani's 7-point lead over Clinton was nearly matched by the other candidates. Thompson defeated her 50 percent to 44 percent; and Romney was ahead by 49 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error for head-to-head questions was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Based on the perception that Clinton is most likely to be nominated, the Review-Journal did not poll other Democratic candidates directly against the top Republicans.

"It looks like Hillary has a bit of an uphill battle in Nevada in the presidential election," Coker said. "Her overall name recognition is 99 percent. You're dealing with somebody who is very well known, and a majority are saying they absolutely would not vote for her."

Contact political reporter Molly Ball at mball@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2919.