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LV has modest resident growth

Numbers surprise county experts

The signposts indicating slowed population growth have been up in Clark County for a while.

The surrender of out-of-state driver's licenses is down.

The demand for new utility hook-ups has fallen.

Local job growth has been modest at best.


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  • Economic research experts have their eyes on all those indicators. But news that Clark County's resident growth rate declined from 5.3 percent to 2.7 percent between 2006 and 2007 took even the experts by surprise.

    Jeremy Aguero, a principal in the economic research firm Applied Analysis, said he'd been anticipating more modest growth in population. What he hadn't expected was to see the overall growth slide below 3 percent.

    "That's weak," Aguero said. "That's lower than the low-end of the range I was expecting."

    Clark County demographer Jon Wardlaw on Friday released the resident population estimates for July 2006 to July 2007. In terms of percentage growth for the county's cities, Mesquite came out the winner, showing a 6.6 percent increase over the previous year. North Las Vegas expanded by 4.2 percent. Henderson swelled its ranks by 3.7 percent. Boulder City's residents increased by 2.4 percent. And Las Vegas grew a modest 1.9 percent.

    Wardlaw said those numbers should be considered carefully because cities of smaller size have the advantage in showing high percentage growth. Although Mesquite outstrips Las Vegas in terms of percentages, the gains shown by Las Vegas are still substantial. A gain of 6.6 percent in Mesquite means the city added 1,182 people. The 1.9 percent increase in Las Vegas represents an additional 11,161 people.

    "Mesquite looks like the giant winner by growth rate numbers," Wardlaw said. "But Las Vegas added more people."

    Over the past month, Wardlaw has worked with Clark County cities to verify the figures for accuracy. Growth rates factor into the allocation of tax dollars to Nevada counties and cities. Higher growth rates and populations help net a larger share of revenues from consolidated taxes, which includes the sales tax.

    "I think there are concerns from the cities and the county due to the tax refund process from the state," Wardlaw said. "The funding formula is complicated, but one of the major components is growth."

    Aguero said one of the biggest questions raised by slowed growth is what impact it will have on sales tax revenue. In Southern Nevada, Aguero said increases in sales tax revenue is generated by more consumers spending, not consumers spending more.

    It may also stir the community to begin thinking more about the local economy.

    "The point is a good one -- how does an economy and fiscal system built on growth adapt to slower growth?" Aguero said.

    Mark Vincent, director of finance and business services for the city of Las Vegas, said he's not overly concerned about the declining growth rate -- Las Vegas has been adding residents slowly for a while. If other cities are growing more slowly, Vincent said that might actually help Las Vegas when it comes time to divvy up tax revenues.

    What he is worried about is the sluggish housing market, the lack of affordable housing and the ripples sent out by those situations. A decline in new construction represents a loss of property taxes and affects businesses related to the industry. When people don't buy existing homes for sale, Vincent said, new furniture sales fall and landscapers suffer.

    Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, said he can't predict if the downturn in the growth rate is merely a blip or the start of the trend. He does know that such things are cyclical and depend on a number of factors, such as the opening of major resorts and new businesses.

    For instance, Clark County is in-between casino projects at the moment, Schwer said. That will change in 2009, when MGM Mirage opens its $5-billion Project CityCenter on the Strip. The development includes a 4,000-room hotel-casino and two 500-unit condominium high-rises.

    "We're easily talking about 50,000 jobs being created," Schwer predicted, based on the property's immediate need and the ripple effects it will have in creating new demand for services.

    Aguero said there are also positives that come from slower growth -- government services have time to catch up and it eases the critical water and power issues facing Clark County. It's also important to remember that the growth rate is high by almost any other community's standard.

    "A 2.7 percent growth in population is slow only by Nevada standards," Aguero said. "What does that mean? Maybe we can catch our breath a bit."

    Contact reporter Lisa Kim Bach at lbach@reviewjournal.com or (702) 383-0287.

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    steve wrote on October 22, 2007 04:51 AM: Las Vegas is in the middle of the
    Mohave Desert. The ONLY reason folks come here is the hot job market.
    Take away the hot market, and, as it approaches an average job market, more
    and more folks will leave. All things being equal, folks in an average job market will prefer to live in a better
    situation than the desert.
    No one except cartus breeders and sagebrush collectors could possibly love the desert of itself(and a few artists too). All the rest will leave in the same mass exodus of whence they came, and sooner rather than later.


    sharon wrote on October 20, 2007 09:51 PM: Sorry to hear family friendly Vegas has turned criminal. Folks--it's not just Las Vegas with high crime. It's spreading like a fungus across America, complete with gangs. Towns/cities of all sizes. Including my Michigan home town. Speaking as an annual tourist, Freemont St needs cleaning up again. Was there in June, scary, we soon left back to the strip. I'll always love Vegas!


    sam wrote on October 20, 2007 06:00 PM: I am a life long resident. I used to defend our city. Now, I can't wait to retire and leave. I will never look back. The greedy self servng people that are running our town and state is disgusting. Maybe, someday the feds will really clean it up. Then, it might be o.k. again. Nobody, in their right mind would want to live and raise a family here. And once again I am a native not a transplant.


    DJ2 wrote on October 20, 2007 03:35 PM: I agree with many of the posts here. I moved to Las Vegas 25 years ago and the quality of life here has steadily gone down.

    The crime is definitely out of control and Hmmmm is right. After my wedding bands were stolen when I first moved here, the only police response was, "Come to the office and fill out a form describing your ring. If we find it, we'll return it to you."... makes a person think twice before reporting.

    Since then we've had at least 3 bikes stolen and of course, we didn't report those. Plus, when my daughters' driver's side window was shattered and her speakers stolen while the car was in our driveway, no cop would come out and take pictures, a statement, fingerprints, nothing. We could, however, go file a report.

    If you're involved in a no-injuries wreck, you can be prepared for a long, long wait before the police arrive, a wait that's so lenghty any witnesses you were lucky enough to have will have gone.

    And, as far as leaving LV, there are many who are poised to leave as soon as they get what they want for their houses. When all hope of that is lost, expect to see another spike of residents exiting. We often see statistics that only reflect the net growth, but we do not see statistics that indicate the rate of move-outs from month to month.

    With the increasing rates of car insurance, utilities, medical insurance, housing, etc., the quality of life in Las Vegas has suffered. Traffic congestion from crowds, perpetual road construction, poor traffic light timing, and accidents add more stress.

    Finally, blatantly corrupt politicians are the icing on the cake.


    Jake Valentine wrote on October 20, 2007 02:32 PM: Homes in Clark county are still way overpriced. It seems like every other month another utility company is raising their rates. Crime is a more serious issue everyday. The school system is beyond horrible. The water supply is at a critical level. What's not to love?!? People who are worried about slowing population growth should be more concerned about an eventual shrinking population within the next 5-10 years. We may already be living in the glory days of Vegas. Perhaps we've alreadry seen the best times of this city. One big economic recession could cripple this area causing people to leave in droves and housing prices to plummet. The truth is, most Americans would not CHOOSE to live in Vegas if all things were equal with other cities (job growth, housing costs, education system, etc..) so Vegas/Clark County has to offer a reason for people to move here. Right now those reasons are disappearing and less people are coming.


    Mark wrote on October 20, 2007 12:32 PM: As house prices fall and foreclosures rise, neighborhoods will turn even more crime infested. And Metro Police will be too busy giving out speeding tickets to bother.


    hhhmmmm... wrote on October 20, 2007 10:48 AM: All excellent points Bill. I totally agree with the crime issue.

    Last year there was a party down the street from my house. The next day my windshield was busted in like someone physically landed on the windshield. There was also a broken bear bottle within feet of my car. I contacted the police and they told me they will not send out a patrol car to take a report or talk to the house down the street to investigate the incident. I could only file a report at a local station and if there is any investigation I would have to do it myself. Of course, if I go down to the house and try to investigate, it would be a joke and would only put myself in harms way since that neighbor has a short temper ... great job LVMPD!


    hhhmmmm... wrote on October 20, 2007 10:36 AM: hhhhhmmmm..... It sounds like they did move, but they have every right to post their experience so others don't make the same mistake.

    It is the negativity of people like yourself, the lack of a family environment and crime rate that makes Las Vegas such a bad place to raise a family.


    Bill wrote on October 20, 2007 10:31 AM: The growth is down because the realestate values although falling are still way over priced. Water is a concern since Lake Mead is at less than 50% capicity down about 65 feet. The crime rate in Las Vegas is way to high and many crimes go unreported because the police are there mainly to protect the main source of tax revnue that being the casinos. The police don't respond to minor crimes such thefts, they tell you to come in and make a report. I visited several of the major casinos on a recent Saturiday night and noticed that the majority of the slot machines were vacant even the nickel and penny slots had plenty of vacant seats therefore I question if there is a need for the MGM City Center. It seems to considering the severe state of Lake Mead lawn watering should stop as should the 10% of the water usage reported by the RJ that the casinos use in the fountains and other water hogs. There is a saying "you don't miss the water until the well runs dry" it is running dry. Just take a ride out to Lake Mead and see where the water level use to be, get a close look since distance can be decieving. Lake mead has been losing water since at least year 2000. Las Vegas won't be the first town that was taken down by a lack of water nor will it be the last to go down. I suspect that before to long Southern Nevada will see negative growth patterns with many more vacant properties.


    Peter wrote on October 20, 2007 10:08 AM: People should check out a city they are moving to instead of moving to one, such as Las Vegas, and then try to bend and mold it into something they want and think is best for everyone else.

    If you don't like Las Vegas, leave and shut up.


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