Economic research experts have their eyes on all those indicators. But news that Clark County's resident growth rate declined from 5.3 percent to 2.7 percent between 2006 and 2007 took even the experts by surprise.
Jeremy Aguero, a principal in the economic research firm Applied Analysis, said he'd been anticipating more modest growth in population. What he hadn't expected was to see the overall growth slide below 3 percent.
"That's weak," Aguero said. "That's lower than the low-end of the range I was expecting."
Clark County demographer Jon Wardlaw on Friday released the resident population estimates for July 2006 to July 2007. In terms of percentage growth for the county's cities, Mesquite came out the winner, showing a 6.6 percent increase over the previous year. North Las Vegas expanded by 4.2 percent. Henderson swelled its ranks by 3.7 percent. Boulder City's residents increased by 2.4 percent. And Las Vegas grew a modest 1.9 percent.
Wardlaw said those numbers should be considered carefully because cities of smaller size have the advantage in showing high percentage growth. Although Mesquite outstrips Las Vegas in terms of percentages, the gains shown by Las Vegas are still substantial. A gain of 6.6 percent in Mesquite means the city added 1,182 people. The 1.9 percent increase in Las Vegas represents an additional 11,161 people.
"Mesquite looks like the giant winner by growth rate numbers," Wardlaw said. "But Las Vegas added more people."
Over the past month, Wardlaw has worked with Clark County cities to verify the figures for accuracy. Growth rates factor into the allocation of tax dollars to Nevada counties and cities. Higher growth rates and populations help net a larger share of revenues from consolidated taxes, which includes the sales tax.
"I think there are concerns from the cities and the county due to the tax refund process from the state," Wardlaw said. "The funding formula is complicated, but one of the major components is growth."
Aguero said one of the biggest questions raised by slowed growth is what impact it will have on sales tax revenue. In Southern Nevada, Aguero said increases in sales tax revenue is generated by more consumers spending, not consumers spending more.
It may also stir the community to begin thinking more about the local economy.
"The point is a good one -- how does an economy and fiscal system built on growth adapt to slower growth?" Aguero said.
Mark Vincent, director of finance and business services for the city of Las Vegas, said he's not overly concerned about the declining growth rate -- Las Vegas has been adding residents slowly for a while. If other cities are growing more slowly, Vincent said that might actually help Las Vegas when it comes time to divvy up tax revenues.
What he is worried about is the sluggish housing market, the lack of affordable housing and the ripples sent out by those situations. A decline in new construction represents a loss of property taxes and affects businesses related to the industry. When people don't buy existing homes for sale, Vincent said, new furniture sales fall and landscapers suffer.
Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, said he can't predict if the downturn in the growth rate is merely a blip or the start of the trend. He does know that such things are cyclical and depend on a number of factors, such as the opening of major resorts and new businesses.
For instance, Clark County is in-between casino projects at the moment, Schwer said. That will change in 2009, when MGM Mirage opens its $5-billion Project CityCenter on the Strip. The development includes a 4,000-room hotel-casino and two 500-unit condominium high-rises.
"We're easily talking about 50,000 jobs being created," Schwer predicted, based on the property's immediate need and the ripple effects it will have in creating new demand for services.
Aguero said there are also positives that come from slower growth -- government services have time to catch up and it eases the critical water and power issues facing Clark County. It's also important to remember that the growth rate is high by almost any other community's standard.
"A 2.7 percent growth in population is slow only by Nevada standards," Aguero said. "What does that mean? Maybe we can catch our breath a bit."
Contact reporter Lisa Kim Bach at lbach@reviewjournal.com or (702) 383-0287.