Yet, energy experts said, refiners and retailers haven't raised gasoline prices to keep up with surging crude costs, because the market couldn't bear the result. If gasoline prices had risen at the same pace as crude oil, motorists nationwide would be shelling out $5 a gallon, estimated Stephen Schork of The Schork Report, a Pennsylvania-based publication covering energy markets.

Plus, Nevada's gasoline prices on Wednesday were below national averages. Nevada usually claims fuel averages of 15 cents to 20 cents a gallon more than the rest of the country. Wednesday's statewide prices were 2 cents below the nation's average.

Tack on the standard Nevada "premium," and prices should already have topped $4 a gallon. And that's probably where prices will be by Memorial Day.

Refiners are using about 85 percent of their manufacturing capacity, down from a conventional 90 percent or more, Schork said. As oil prices have skyrocketed, refiners have found manufacturing gasoline a pricier, and less-profitable, proposition. They've capped fuel production as a result.

So, gasoline inventories fell in the last week, just as the traditional summer travel season approaches.

Uncertainty about refinery output spooks commodities markets, where traders often react to unpredictable outlooks by bidding up prices.

"There's significant concern in the market with regard to the integrity of the country's refining capacity," Schork said. "The market has its doubts that refinery capacity will be able to supply enough gasoline this summer."

Combine lagging gasoline stores with a Memorial Day bounce in travel, and local consumers could be shelling out around $4 a gallon by the end of May, said Thomas Bentz, a director and senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures.

Market watchers offered mixed views on whether drivers will enjoy major price relief by the fall.

Oil prices have risen because of high demand for crude in China, India and other emerging economies, said Phil Flynn, a vice president and energy analyst with Alaron Trading Corp. What's more, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel is holding back supplies, Flynn said.

A weak U.S. dollar underpins a substantial share of crude price gains, because the overseas oil producers who supply 60 percent of the country's petroleum are demanding more dollars for each barrel.

On the demand front, a softening economy and $4-a-gallon gasoline could suppress fuel purchases in the United States and ease inventory crunches, Bentz said. More Americans might conserve if pricing records continue to fall in coming weeks.

Also, he said, the U.S. dollar's free fall in relation to other currencies is slowing. That could relieve some pressures on crude prices.

But upswings in oil and fuel costs are possible as well.

Hurricane season begins May 30, and an active storm season along the refinery-rich Gulf Coast could curb fuel supplies, Schork said. Political unrest in oil-generating hot spots, including Iran, Iraq and parts of Africa and South America, might hurt petroleum production as well.

A string of substantial disruptions in crude-refining could push gasoline costs to $5 a gallon before summer's end, Flynn said.

Barring supply hiccups, Schork predicts price breaks in June, and again in September.

Prices typically drift downward between Memorial Day and the Fourth of July, as uncertainties about summertime fuel supplies ease, he said. That means prices nationwide could drop to $3.40 or $3.50 a gallon by midsummer. And if the country makes it through hurricane season without major storms, expect prices to drop to between $3 and $3.20 a gallon, Schork said.

Some of those price declines are in the hands of consumers and the politicians who represent them in Congress, analysts said.

Consumers could use less fuel. They also could call on the federal government to tweak monetary policy.

Flynn suggested Congress consider ways to strengthen the U.S. dollar in relation to other currencies. The Federal Reserve also could signal that it's nearing the end of its seven-month string of aggressive interest-rate cuts, which have helped force down the dollar's value.

Bentz said halting the flow of oil into the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve could loosen supply constrictions. But the 70,000 barrels a day going into the stockpile might not make much difference when global oil consumption totals more than 85 million barrels a day, he acknowledged.

Federal, state and local governments also could suspend rules demanding reduced sulfur content in fuel, because such restrictions make gasoline tougher and more costly to manufacture, he said.

And though it's politically unpopular to recommend building more refineries and exploring new oil fields along U.S. coasts and in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, opening fresh supply fronts would make perhaps the biggest difference of all, Schork said.

"Like it or not, this is still a fossil fuel-based economy, and yet, we do not go ahead and take that low-hanging fruit," he said. "We do not exploit all our domestic supply of crude. That's not going to happen, and the market knows that's not going to happen, so it keeps bidding that into prices."

Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4512.