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Jul. 31, 2008
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Poll shows Titus leading over Porter

Pollster: Environment 'good for Democrats'

By MOLLY BALL
REVIEW-JOURNAL

43% of 500 likely voters polled supported Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus

39% of those polled supported Republican Rep. Jon Porter

*10 percent of those polled chose one of three third-party candidates; 7 percent said they were undecided

He might be the incumbent, but Republican Rep. Jon Porter may face an uphill battle against his Democratic challenger, state Sen. Dina Titus, according to a new poll conducted for her campaign.

The poll finds Titus leading Porter, 43 percent to 39 percent, among voters in Congressional District 3, which includes mostly suburban areas of the Las Vegas Valley.

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Ten percent of those polled chose one of three third-party candidates, while 7 percent said they were undecided. The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted July 23 to July 28 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

When the third-party candidates were excluded and respondents were asked to choose only between Titus and Porter, Titus' lead widened. In that scenario, Titus had the support of 50 percent, and Porter had 43 percent.

"I think it's a strong indicator that people in the district want change in Washington," Titus campaign manager Jay Gertsema said. "I also think it represents the fact that people in the district know Dina's someone who's going to fight hard for them."

The poll was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research, a national firm that conducts polls for Democratic candidates. The poll is the first conducted by the Titus campaign since the political science professor and former gubernatorial nominee entered the race in April.

"Democrat Dina Titus may have entered the race late, but she leads Republican Congressman Jon Porter right out of the blocks," the pollster wrote in a memo accompanying the poll.

Pollster John Anzalone said Titus is running at a good time for Democrats across the country.

"The political environment is really good for Democrats. That certainly is helping someone like Dina Titus," he said. "The fact that she is a known quantity and well liked is even better."

When those surveyed in the poll were asked their opinion of Porter's job performance, 50 percent rated it positively, while 41 percent saw it negatively. Titus' performance as a state senator got higher marks: 56 percent positive, 32 percent negative.

The campaign also asked those surveyed whether they viewed the candidates favorably or unfavorably, a metric that tends to gauge likability, which might be somewhat different than what people think of a politician's performance. The campaign refused to release the results of this question, but Anzalone said they were the same for both Porter and Titus.

In the job approval rating, Porter is suffering from people's dim view of Congress overall, Anzalone said. "People are much more disenchanted with Congress than they are with the state Legislature."

Also, he said there may be a "buyer's remorse" effect from the 2006 gubernatorial campaign, in which Titus was defeated by Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons, whose approval rating plummeted to 21 percent in June.

A spokesman for Porter, a former Boulder City mayor and state senator who is seeking re-election to a fourth term, was skeptical that the poll results reflect the true feelings of the district's electorate.

Matt Leffingwell said that a Review-Journal poll last month put Porter ahead of Titus, 45 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

"Any poll that shows only 7 percent undecided at this point in the race is suspect," Leffingwell said. "Secondly, it's highly suspicious that there's such a shift from an independent poll just a month ago."

But Leffingwell did not deny that Porter faces a tough fight to keep his seat in the House of Representatives.

"We have said before that this is going to be one of the most competitive races in the country," he said. "The race is incredibly fluid, and these numbers will continue to fluctuate throughout the campaign. The congressman remains confident that when a clear contrast is drawn, voters will choose real leadership."

Outsiders often suspect that polls conducted by political campaigns will be biased in the campaign's favor. The pollster is a campaign consultant, a member of the candidate's team helping to develop a strategy and message. But campaigns do not pay pollsters to tell them what they want to hear, Anzalone said.

"We wouldn't be worth our weight in gold if we didn't give the real answers so that everything is realistic and we can base campaign strategy on reality," he said.

Campaigns often commission polls that show them losing; they just don't release those results to the public or the media, Anzalone said.

Based on the way it was conducted, the new poll might underestimate Titus' support. The polling firm included equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in its survey, but there are substantially more Democrats and Republicans in the district.

In previous elections, the district has been almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a large number of nonpartisan voters. But in recent months, Democrats have gained an advantage.

According to the Clark County Election Department, as of July 24, there were more than 25,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered to vote in the district. Of the district's voters, 44 percent are registered Democrats, 37 percent Republicans.

Anzalone said the polling firm wanted to be conservative in its approach and not overstate the potential effect of the recent Democratic gains.

University of Nevada, Las Vegas political scientist David Damore said the poll "shows that Porter is in trouble," something already indicated by the changes in the makeup of the district.

"The Republican brand is in trouble, and all of Jon Porter's attempts to become a moderate haven't really bought him much," Damore said.

The hardest thing for a congressional challenger to build, he said, is name recognition, and Titus has that built-in, giving her an edge.

"In this kind of race, if you don't like the incumbent, you still may not vote for the opposition if it's a no-name," he said. "She's got name recognition, experience and money -- all the things Jon Porter wouldn't want to see in an opponent."

Titus and Porter first must win their parties' nominations in the primary election, for which early voting is under way. Both are expected to easily defeat little-known opponents.

Porter faces fellow Republicans Carl Bunce and Jesse Law, while Titus faces Democrats Barry Michaels, Anna Nevenic and Carlo Poliak.

In the general election, Independent American Party candidate Floyd Fitzgibbons, Green Party candidate Bob Giaquinta, independent candidate Jeffrey Reeves and Libertarian Party candidate Joseph Silvestri also will be on the ballot.

Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.

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Please enter your name Name: Please enter your email Email: Please enter a comment COMMENTS : (word count limit is 300) You have reached the maximum number of words allowed Current Word Count: Bumpy Ride, Indeed wrote on July 31, 2008 02:43 PM: Yes, James, the ride will get very bumpy when a democrat controlled house and senate, together with an extremely liberal president, decide to tax the heck out of all of us during an already tenuous state of economy. Yeah, it'll be extremely bumpy. grad student wrote on July 31, 2008 01:48 PM: He Voted FOR- War in Iraq while ignoring the real threat in Afghanistan Iraq did not follow any UN ruling since the first war, I think the war was justified and so did most democrats at the time Privatization of Social Security Bad idea but It needs to be fixed, personally if I had all the money my employer pays on my behalf I could invest it better and have more but SS assumes we are not responsible enough to plan for retirement. When SS was created by Democrats it was stated it would never become a retirement program… Allowing union busting by large corporations This is a union town and in some instances unions are necessary, they are also big business and support democrats. I don’t know enough to comment on the particular bill George W. Bush's FAILED energy policies This is more like every congressmen and president’s failed energy policy from the last 50 years. Bush has done very little but he did not cause this. gradstudent wrote on July 31, 2008 01:48 PM: I’m glad you have a reason for your Titus vote, I disagree. I don’t care much for porter, and I doubt you will believe me but my opinion on your ‘facts” are Raising the minimum wage to a whopping $7.25, This was justified, it would be wonderful if everyone could make and have more but I do understand that this can eliminate some jobs and cause the price of goods to rise making the new minimum wage worth exactly what the old wage was through inflation Equal Pay for Women I will get hung for this but when you take women out of the equation that have made the decision to get married/stay home and have kids or just look at it by industry Women are on par and sometimes ahead of men in pay scale, also women attend schools of higher education that men and the perceived inequality will in the next generation be reverse of what it is now, the government will only make this a costly mess Money for Family Planning We have different opinions, I don’t think we should fund these programs, maybe if people had to pay for and raise there own kids they would have less 50 Million in tax relief to the middle class (protecting them from the AMT) I agree James wrote on July 31, 2008 01:37 PM: Look out GOPers! Your day of reckoning is near and you can all thank George W. Bush for it. November 7, 2008 will be remembered as one of the darkest days in the history of republican politics. Porter, the Bush lap-dog/rubber stamp/empty suit will be just one of many GOP casualties to get what they deserve in this election. So fasten your seat belts 'cause the ride is about to get v e r y b u m p y. gradstudent wrote on July 31, 2008 01:25 PM: I’ll give you closer to center than most papers, but right leaning would require some proof, I have read both conservative commentary and liberal commentary on this paper. For most that is considered balanced reporting and editorials. I have read in these blogs every time a liberal piece comes out that it is a liberal/socialist paper and every time a conservative piece comes out it is a pro bush war mongering conservative paper. I do not see how this article can be considered right leaning. A poll done for a specific candidate comes out her way, then a bunch of her supporters bad mouthing the opponent, I wonder what questions the poll takers asked and if they contacted a fair random sample of citizens or if it was overloaded with democrats and independents, witch has become the standard for these non scientific polls in order to promote a particular candidate or idea instead of reporting the actual support a candidate has. This is why polls have less and less value. Vote Porter Out wrote on July 31, 2008 01:16 PM: Gradstudent- A little education... Porter Voted AGAINST- Raising the minimum wage to a whopping $7.25 Equal Pay for Women Money for Family Planning 50 Million in tax relief to the middle class (protecting them from the AMT) He Voted FOR- War in Iraq while ignoring the real threat in Afghanistan Privatization of Social Securtiy Allowing union busting by large corportations George W. Bush's FAILED energy policies Dina Titus brings several positives to the table. She is on the opposite side of basically ALL those terrible positions listed above. She is practical (ie. for oil drilling even though dems are against it). She also will try to solve problems with our energy policy, largely by stopping the endless money spiggot to Iraq ($4k a second, but who's counting?- not Porter). She also will support Health Care for all Americans. What a concept!?! Lastly, even Republican senators and representatives have made comments like "if our party was dog food, it would be taken off the shelf". If even they are acknowledging this problem, you can't argue Porter was wise voting 90% of the time with a party that is being compared to bad Chinese dog food, even by its own members. And lastly, it is pathetic that you think Porter should be re-elected because "he has not been caught up in any big scandals". I'm glad that is the new threshold Republican candidates must meet for office. As long as they haven't received a yacht from a lobbyist or molested a teenage page, they are all good??? Give me a break.... gradstudent wrote on July 31, 2008 01:04 PM: Let me clarify Titus fan I was meaning this blog Titus Fan wrote on July 31, 2008 01:00 PM: Gradstudent- the R-J is a pro-Titus site? That is news to me, since they endorsed our brilliant Governor Jim Gibbons when Titus ran against him in '06. Its hard to even read the rest of your comment when you start with that premise because it is patently false; almost all objective people would agree that the R-J is a right leaning newspaper. mpr wrote on July 31, 2008 12:29 PM: Gradstudent, Besides voting against $50 million in tax relief for 23 million middle class families by protecting them from paying the AMT? Steve wrote on July 31, 2008 12:03 PM: Take this poll with a grain of salt. I hope that Congressman Porter wins re-election and I expect he probably will. Read All Comments