A shift in one of the 10 state Senate races in the November election could tip the balance. Democrats picked up one seat in the 2006 election, reducing the margin to 11-10.

The overwhelming Democratic dominance in the Assembly, where the margin is 27 to only 15 for the GOP, is unlikely to change. A net gain of one seat for Democrats in the 42-member lower house could give them a critical two-thirds margin, however. That is the number of votes needed to approve new taxes or override a governor's veto.

The flip of a single race holds the key to the Senate. The party in the majority has the voting edge in all committees and sets the course of the legislative agenda.

Democrats see the opportunity to take power this election year, while Republicans see the targeted GOP incumbents holding on to their seats.

Only two of the 10 seats up for grabs are considered to be in play. They are held by freshmen Sens. Joe Heck, R-Henderson, in District 5 and Bob Beers, R-Las Vegas, in District 6. The two districts now have slight Democratic edges in voter registration, a change from past elections.

State Senate Minority Leader Steven Horsford, D-Las Vegas, said his caucus is working hard to unseat the incumbents.

"We are aggressively going to campaign against Bob Beers and Joe Heck," he said. "We have two incredible candidates in Shirley Breeden in Senate 5 and Allison Copening in Senate 6. They have been working extremely hard, knocking on thousands of doors."

Horsford said the campaign by state Senate Democrats will work in tandem with the "Campaign for Change" of Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama and Democratic congressional candidates, including outgoing state Sen. Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, who is looking to unseat Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev. The goal is to bring out Nevada's Democratic voters in November.

But the state Senate candidates themselves also will be working their own grass-roots campaigns to bring out voters in those districts, he said.

"Senate Republicans have been in control for a long time," Horsford said. "In that time period, we've seen our economy decline. Public safety has been eroded. Voters are looking for a new type of leadership to take our state forward.

"We think this is a Democratic year. We are going to run on a very positive message of change and moving the state forward."

Obama's presidential campaign will help with turnout for "down ticket" races, while the state Senate candidates will help bring out voters for the "up ticket" races, Horsford said.

Horsford also is running for re-election. But his district, like those of other state senators seeking new four-year terms, is viewed as safe and unlikely to change hands.

Pete Ernaut, a partner with R&R Partners and a GOP campaign consultant, said he believes the advantage has to be given to the incumbents.

"Both Senator Heck and Senator Beers are very tough campaigners," he said. "They tend to raise a fair amount of money and walk their districts. I don't think there is any softness to either campaign."

While the districts are not the safe GOP havens they once were, the voters, including the independents, tend to be conservative, said Ernaut, who managed campaigns for both former Gov. Kenny Guinn and U.S. Sen. John Ensign.

One wild card could be the presidential race and how that plays out between now and Election Day, he said.

"That dynamic could change the landscape in all of these races in a hurry," Ernaut said.

But for voters in the two districts, the deciding factor might be which candidates are viewed as being the most likely to hold the line on taxes and spending, he said.

"I think that gives Heck and Beers the advantage," Ernaut said.

Democratic consultant Gary Gray said the price of gasoline and the overall economy are now the top issues for voters nationally. Nevada is probably no different, given the foreclosure rate, the job layoffs and the slowdown in the economy generally.

It remains to be seen whether it will help Republicans and their mantra of no new taxes or Democrats who talk about the need to maintain essential services, he said.

"I don't know which way that will cut," Gray said. "For someone like Bob Beers, who has absolutely been a cheerleader for (Gov. Jim) Gibbons' no new taxes pledge, if it cuts the wrong way, it will cripple him badly."

Gray is running the campaigns of several Assembly Democrats, but no senators.

Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, said that if he were a Democratic Party strategist, he would focus on Beers because of his high-profile, lightning rod nature.

"If they targeted Beers, it would be a test of his very strong position of no new taxes and cutting the budget," he said. "Of course, the strategy could backfire if voters support that view.

"If I was a Democratic Party official, I would link him to Jim Gibbons, to the bad economy, even though it's not his fault, to budget cuts. I would mobilize the teachers."

But Beers is the incumbent, and he is a hard worker and a smart campaigner, Herzik said. Beers probably would counter any Democratic attack by noting that he led the charge against tax increases and for limiting government spending, Herzik said.

So is there a chance for Democrats?

"There is a chance the Democrats could gain the Senate," he said. "But they have to run a good campaign and their candidates will have to work very hard. They will have to out-work the incumbents."

Heck is an emergency room doctor and a colonel in the Army Reserve who recently returned from a stint in Iraq. Breeden is a longtime school district administrator. The Democratic edge in this district is 41 percent to 39 percent Republican, based on July registration numbers of active voters.

Beers is a certified public accountant. Copening works in public relations but was formerly employed by the Las Vegas Valley Water District. The district's registered voters are 42 percent Democrat and slightly under 41 percent Republican.

Both Breeden and Copening have raised substantial sums for their campaigns, impressive for candidates who are challenging incumbents, Horsford said. Copening raised $121,000 through July 31. Breeden raised $101,000.

By contrast, Beers raised $308,000. Heck raised $181,000.

"These two races will be hard-fought," Horsford said. "We'll work hard and Republicans will work hard, and the voters will decide in the end."

Contact Capital Bureau reporter Sean Whaley at swhaley@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3900.