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Aug. 24, 2008
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Nevadans give McCain edge

But undecided voters hold key to election

By MOLLY BALL
REVIEW-JOURNAL
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John McCain (left), Republican candidate is ahead in polls in five of six Western states and Barack Obama (right), Democratic candidate leads polls of independent voters in Nevada




Nevada voters favor Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama, but a sizable number who plan to vote remain undecided about the presidential race, according to a new Review-Journal poll.

As both parties aim to put the diverse and growing swing state into play, McCain has taken the lead by a margin of 46 percent to Obama's 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided, according to the poll.

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    • The poll, conducted in concert with other news organizations in six Western states, found McCain enjoying an edge throughout his home region.

    Taken as a whole, voters in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming favored McCain, 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent undecided. McCain led in every state except Colorado.

    The overall regional poll average carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, while individual state polls carry a margin of error of 5 percentage points in either direction. Four hundred likely voters were surveyed in each state by telephone Aug. 13-15.

    "McCain has widened his lead and seems to have gained a bit of an upper hand in Nevada," said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., the Washington, D.C.-based firm that conducted the poll for the Review-Journal, the Denver Post and the Salt Lake Tribune.

    "It's still early and there's a lot that is going to happen (before the election in November), but coming out of the gate McCain is in the lead."

    A Review-Journal poll in June found a closer result, with McCain up 44 percent to 42 percent and 14 percent undecided, a statistical tie that most other polls in the state, considered an electoral toss-up, have reflected.

    Both campaigns have targeted Nevada as a key state with television ads and campaign organizing.

    In the wider Western region, Democrats see political opportunity in changing demographics, increasing urbanization, and the strain of frontier-style, independent thinking that runs through the Intermountain West.

    January's Nevada presidential caucuses and this week's Democratic National Convention in Denver were planned by the Democratic Party as part of an effort to make inroads in the West.

    "The road to the presidency is through the West," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said in a conference call last week.

    Republicans maintain that the Southwest's historic conservatism continues to hold sway and that McCain, a longtime senator from Arizona, has an edge in the part of the country he calls home. Southwest residents may see Illinois-based Obama as an outsider.

    The six-state poll is skewed somewhat by the inclusion of Utah and Wyoming, two heavily Republican states that neither campaign considers up for grabs. However, since the poll is weighted to reflect the states' respective populations, tiny Wyoming, the least populated state in the nation, had little effect on the overall numbers, Coker said.

    Most analysts do not consider Arizona a likely pickup for Obama either. But Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico all are seen as swing states.

    "Nevada and New Mexico are the two Western states people thought would be most likely to go from red to blue, but here it looks like Nevada's actually less likely than Colorado," Coker noted.

    The poll was taken at a time when McCain appeared to gain steam nationally and Obama appeared to falter. McCain may have benefited from the crisis in the Republic of Georgia, which threw a spotlight on his foreign-policy experience, and from ads portraying Obama as an empty "celebrity," Coker said.

    In Nevada, 48 percent of poll respondents said they viewed McCain favorably, while just 25 percent saw him unfavorably.

    Obama was viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 37 percent.

    "What struck me is that Obama's negatives are much higher than McCain's," Coker said. "Obama maybe has suffered a bit of overexposure lately, and that shift dovetails pretty closely with the McCain lead."

    In the regional poll, McCain had an advantage among men, 51 percent to 35 percent, and edged Obama among women, 45 percent to 43 percent.

    McCain did substantially better within his own party than Obama did with his: 81 percent of Republicans favored McCain and just 8 percent supported Obama.

    Obama had the support of 75 percent of Democrats, 13 percent of whom said they would vote for McCain.

    Among independents, the two candidates were tied at 41 percent, with 18 percent of that group still on the fence.

    Hispanic voters, who are being heavily courted by both candidates, favor Obama by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 64 percent to 25 percent.

    In Nevada, McCain did even better with Democrats, getting 17 percent of their vote to Obama's 69 percent.

    That was a possible hangover from the battle for the Democratic nomination between Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., who won Nevada's January caucuses and recently came to the state to campaign for her former rival.

    Obama had a lead among Nevada independent voters, 40 percent to 34 percent, with 26 percent still undecided.

    The two candidates were surprisingly close in Clark County, the state's Democratic bastion and home to 70 percent of Nevada's population. Obama had 43 percent of the vote to McCain's 42 percent in the county that includes the Las Vegas metropolitan area.

    In the rest of the state, McCain led, 53 percent to 32 percent.

    McCain spokesman Rick Gorka called the poll "encouraging news" but said he expected Nevada to remain competitive. McCain's apparent strength throughout the West "comes down to Senator McCain being a Western senator. He understands the issues. He has lived the issues every day of his life."

    Obama spokeswoman Kirsten Searer said the Democrat's campaign remains confident Nevada and the West are open to his message.

    "We're going to continue talking to voters about Senator Obama's message of change in Washington, and the evidence we've seen is that Nevadans are responding to it," she said.

    Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball @reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.

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    Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.

    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on October 01, 2008 06:17 PM: Hey Barak, Nevada is not opened to your so-called message. Nor is any other state. You are going to lose fifty states. Congratutions, President McCain!


    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on September 09, 2008 02:06 PM: Why all of this excitment over Obama. He has no chance to win against a national hero.


    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on August 25, 2008 04:22 PM: I like Bob Barr. I like John McCain. Bob Barr can't win. I'm voting for John McCain!


    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on August 25, 2008 04:21 PM: Wow, well John McCain will massacre Barak Obama in the West! Why can't the rest of the country see the light?


    IND wrote on August 25, 2008 12:22 AM: NV loves Ron Paul. Don't be surprised by a large 3rd party vote for the Libertarian candidate.


    mike wrote on August 24, 2008 09:50 PM: McCain= LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR

    My vote is for YObama


    Guess What?!?! wrote on August 24, 2008 09:15 PM: McCain will continue Bush's policies, which give more power to the corporations ( See ExxonMObil profit from last quarter) and takes it away from working class, Middle income Americans ( Do you see who is buying much of City Center, not us) Believe this, if middle class dont have the opportunity to earn a living wage, and to provide for their families and to have health care and to be able to work for the American Dream, they will HAVE to provide for their families in some way. And for you rich, fat cats sitting in your big homes, watching Fox Channel and checking your stocks, guess where they are going to get it?? Sleep well..


    KEATING WHO? wrote on August 24, 2008 09:07 PM: During the 2000 Republican Presidential Primaries, Slate.com writer Chris Suellentrop wrote an in-depth feature article about John McCain and his role in the Keating Five. This is a must read article for every American, especially for anyone who thinks John McCain is a hero.

    Two Important things to know before you read the article:

    1. John McCain admitted to intentionally filing false income tax returns to defraud the IRS by not claiming thousands of dollars in gifts McCain and his family received from Charles Keating and Keating’s company. Years later, when the IRS noticed Keating’s company had written off the gifts to McCain as business expenses, McCain fessed up and admitted filing false returns and made a “donation” to the U.S. Treasury to cover the amount he defrauded American tax payers. (Committing tax fraud is one of the least offensive things John McCain has done over his career, but this article just focuses on his role in the Keating Five, and the Lincoln Savings and Loan scandal of the late 1980’s-early 1990’s). McCain also leaked information about the Keating Five to the press multiple times in an effort to appear above the other Senators in the scandal. A 1989 Phoenix New Times article summed it up best with their title - McCain: The Most Reprehensible of the Keating Five.


    2. John McCain’s wife, Cindy McCain, along with her father, made a $359,000 investment in retail property owned by Charles Keating in 1986, a year before John McCain first met with federal regulators on behalf of Keating. Keating was later convicted on 73 counts of fraud, conspiracy, and other crimes. Years later, Cindy McCain sold her investment for $15,000,000.

    For anyone not aware of the Keating Five scandal, go here:

    http://mccainkeatingfive.com


    Diogenes wrote on August 24, 2008 09:03 PM: Nobama, would you quit listening to that lying drug addict Rush Limbaugh for a couple of minutes, unstick your head from your nether regions, and try reading something for once that isn't written by a known libeler? Try reading a newspaper--something in the R-J other than an editorial, for example, or even a real newspaper like the NY Times or the LA Times. You'll possibly see that your post is so ridiculous that it's embarrassing to think that you are a product of this planet.


    Goodbye, Middle Class wrote on August 24, 2008 08:46 PM: Do you honestly think McCain and Romney have any idea what its like to have a budget in an real house. What its like to decide what bill to pay now, and what bill is going to be late? To know that a forclosure is looming and where they will move their family, and how to explain it to the kids. They have no idea. Yes, it was very tough and honorable living as a hostage in the war, and that is to be commended, but Now, these two are even more for the rich, corporate big wigs than Bush. Do some research Nevada!!! Dont let negative ads control your thinking. Think about it, if McCain and Romney eliminate the middle class like they want to ( much easier to have you work as slaves... no unions, no benefits, no health care) Then who is going to visit Our Casinos and support our city??


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