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CORRECTION: An item in Political Notebook on Monday inaccurately reported that “someone at the NRSC” leaked an internal document about Republican Senate fundraising. In fact, it was not known where the information came from. A spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee denied the leak came from that group.

POLITICAL NOTEBOOK: McCain leading Obama

Nevada respondents go red in online election poll







Polls conducted since the political conventions show Republican John McCain in the lead in the presidential race in Nevada.

A Zogby International poll of 572 likely Nevada voters conducted last Tuesday through Friday found McCain getting 50.1 percent of the vote to Democrat Barack Obama's 42.5 percent. The online survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, and its result convinced the pollster to change the state from purple to red on the electoral map.


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  • "We're turning it red for now," states a note on the poll on Zogby's Web site. "McCain is close to 50 percent, and he now holds a seven-point lead."

    Another pollster, Rasmussen Reports, still rates Nevada a toss-up, with a new poll that has McCain favored but within the margin of error.

    Rasmussen's automated telephone poll, conducted Thursday, found 49 percent of Nevada voters supporting McCain and 46 percent for Obama. The firm's August poll also had McCain ahead, 45 percent to 42 percent.

    Both results are within the 4 point margin of error of the survey of 700 likely voters. They appear to show McCain maintaining a slim lead as more voters make up their minds with the election nearing.

    Fifty-eight percent of Nevadans had a favorable view of McCain in the poll, while 53 percent viewed Obama favorably. Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin was viewed favorably by 54 percent; Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden was seen in a favorable light by 52 percent.

    A third recent poll of 518 likely voters statewide found an even tighter race. Conducted Wednesday, the InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey put McCain ahead, 46 percent to 45 percent, with a 4.2 point margin of error in either direction.

    Obama drew 59 percent of the Hispanic vote in that poll to McCain's 38 percent, while McCain led among independents, 45 percent to 40 percent.

    Most analysts are expecting a close finish on Election Day. In 2004, President Bush won Nevada by 2.6 points.

    GOP GRUMBLES

    Some Republicans are growing unhappy with Sen. John Ensign's blunt talk about the party's chances in U.S. Senate races this fall.

    Ever since the Nevadan took over chairmanship of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, he has acknowledged the GOP faces long odds to success. Republicans have 23 Senate seats to defend, almost double that of Democrats.

    Republicans have been saddled with an unpopular president, key retirements and unfortunate surprises like the indictment of veteran Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens and Idaho Sen. Larry Craig's arrest in a men's restroom at the Minneapolis airport.

    The NRSC also has been unable to match energized Democrats in fundraising. Through July, the GOP committee has $25.4 million available to spend while its Democratic counterpart has $42.9 million.

    Only lately have the emergence of popular vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and the resurgence of John McCain's presidential campaign given Republicans some hope.

    Ensign has scolded fellow Republican senators for not opening their wallets wide enough to help in Senate races. He's also said he would consider it a success if Republicans only lose four Senate seats on election night.

    Last month, Ensign put out a news release saying he had to cut back on television ad buys because Republican senators were not coming through.

    That may have been what prompted a report this week in Politico, the campaign and politics newspaper and Web site, where Ensign was a target for criticism.

    One Republican senator was quoted calling Ensign a "defeatist" while other GOPers said the Nevadan may be hurting his chances to climb the party leadership ladder.

    None of the critics were identified by name.

    Ensign declined to comment on the criticism. He has said in the past he just "told the truth," and was being realistic.

    While the timing may have been coincidental, someone at the NRSC leaked an internal spreadsheet showing only 13 Republican senators had met their fundraising goals.

    The most successful fundraiser? Ensign, who raised more than $9 million.

    Ensign's defenders said the Nevadan stepped up and took a job that nobody else wanted. Most everyone knew this was going to be a thankless year for the Republicans.

    I HARRY

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may not have many fans on the Republican side of the aisle, but he has a big supporter in Grateful Dead drummer Mickey Hart.

    The member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame was in Las Vegas this week to discuss the musical score he co-wrote for the renovation of The Mirage volcano.

    He said his friendship with Reid goes back to 1991, when he testified in front of a Senate subcommittee Reid was chairing on aging matters.

    Hart said Reid helped Hart gain $1 million in federal money for the study of music therapy.

    "Harry kick-started the whole musical therapy thing in the West," Hart said. "Harry is a visionary, even back to 1991."

    'DUMP, BABY, DUMP'

    Could Rep. Shelley Berkley get the plan to store radioactive waste at Nevada's Yucca Mountain branded as an example of pork-barrel politics?

    In news releases last week, Berkley blasted the project as a "$100 billion ... pile of radioactive pork," and "John McCain's 'Nuclear Bridge to Nowhere,'" a reference to the proposed $400 million bridge to Ketchikan, Alaska, that became a potent symbol of wasteful federal spending in recent years.

    The bridge controversy has been reignited by McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has been claiming on the stump that she opposed the project to bolster her credentials as a reformer.

    But the claim has been largely discredited by critics who note that Palin actually supported the bridge until it became politically radioactive, so to speak.

    Berkley also riffed on Republicans' chants of "drill, baby, drill" at their convention, saying the push for Yucca resembles the drive for offshore oil drilling.

    "Democrats want Nevada to be a leader in clean energy, Republicans want to make Nevada a trash can for the nuclear industry," Berkley said in a news release.

    "They have one goal -- dump, baby, dump -- and they cannot wait to get toxic radioactive waste to Nevada given the chance."

    The Department of Energy has estimated that the Yucca project could run to $96.2 billion. McCain supports the repository, which he says can be made safe, while Obama has said he would stop it.

    Review-Journal writer Howard Stutz contributed to this report. Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.

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    Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.

    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on September 20, 2008 04:49 PM: Thank you LVRJ for letting me know how unobjective you are about the 2008 Presidential campaign. You are trying to ensure that the one-term Senator from Illinois is elected President.


    Maurie wrote on September 17, 2008 01:33 AM: Obama will *LOWER* your federal income tax - not increase it. That is unless you earn more than $250,000 a year. Obama will increase the tax of one earning $2M (2 million dollars) a year by $701,855 (11.5% increase). He will decrease the tax of one earning $20,000 a year by $892 (3.6% cut). Yes, he is increasing the tax on the rich by 11.5% and decreasing the tax on the low income by 3.6%.

    McCain's tax cut for one earning over $2M (2 million dollars) in one year is $269,364 (4%). His cut for one earning $20,000 in a year is a measly $113.00 (.5%). Yes, he is giving the rich a bigger tax break than the low income - 8 times bigger!!!!.

    See for yourself. Here is proof!!!!!!

    Here is a link to a calculator you can use to see how much of a tax break you will get with Obama's plan. (I haven't been able to find one yet for the McCain plan. Why is that????.)
    http://alchemytoday.com/obamataxcut/

    Here is a link to a very clear tax cut comparison chart. This chart is referenced in many newspapers and magazine articles.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/09/ST2008060900950.html

    Here is the link to get the full 56-page comparison of the two tax plans published by the independent Tax Policy Center.
    http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/url.cfm?ID=411693


    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on September 16, 2008 03:23 PM: Hey, I'm a big Republican. I'm also a concerned Republican. I don't think that we Nevadans need a renued toxic waste repository in our state.


    My Two Cents wrote on September 15, 2008 04:33 PM: This is too funny to read.
    Roger, please take your medication!!!
    LOL


    Annoyed American wrote on September 15, 2008 02:17 PM: YOU PEOPLE ARE ALL IDIOTS!

    Why is it that the people who seek public office have to be crapped on by the American people.

    "Obama is an idiot" "Palin is trailer trash"

    I understand disagreement with a person's policy choice or touting your candidate's credentials but why disrespect people like this? We've developed this game where we accuse people who have chosen public life of hating the very country they are working for. We ask these people to work for us and when they put their lives out there for scrutiny, they are insulted for their trouble. No wonder the brightest Americans go into the private sector. Pays better too.

    Palin is a very successful and popular governor. She's done very well for herself and her family. She also seems to have the support of the people of Alaska which should speak volumes to her character. She may not be super rich but that doesn't sound like trailer trash.

    Obama is a successful senator who is among the brightest America has to offer. Making it to Harvard Law is not an easy task, especially if you don't have a rich family supporting you, let alone graduating magna cum laude or being president of Harvard Law Review. These don't sound like the accomplishments of an idiot.

    When people stop these bullsh*t attacks and start talking about the real problems facing America, then maybe we'll start resolving issues and moving forward.

    Stock market is crashing - We're in recession - Oil is out of control - We still haven't found Bin Laden - The government is ratcheting up the debt ... THAT'S THE FAULT OF BOTH PARTIES!

    The real trailer trash idiots are YOU PEOPLE for dumbing down the debate on one of the most important issues facing our nation.


    Roger wrote on September 15, 2008 12:51 PM: Palin is Trailer Trash, that's who!

    One of those Christians who promotes the small town values of the methamphetamine capital of Alaska.

    Plus the Obama comparison is a stupid one. We are talking about the candidates, not the parents. Palin is yet another bulldog republican who is trying to force feed her Christian values on us. She just had a disabled kid, yet will take a job where she can't even take care of it. Family values, my a**!

    Palin will not outlaw abortion and niether will John McCain. Republicans cheat on their spouses more than everybody. Not all of them can afford to fly to Mexico to kill off the evidence of unprotected sex.

    The Repuke Party is not about values. Republicans just use values as a front. Republicans are about screwing the other guy and "he who dies with the most toys". If they win, it will be due to their dishonest campaign tactics, like getting T-Boon Pickens to smear Kerry, who did serve his country. So that's your party, Helen. People who are pedifiles, killers and dictators!


    songdra wrote on September 15, 2008 11:24 AM: Wake up people

    The Real John McCain = Less Jobs More Wars
    Check out therealmccain.com

    Remember when he sang BOMB BOMB BOMB , BOMB BOMB IRAN to the tune of the beach boys song, its here.

    McCain has said that he would end “unnecessary” government programs and overhaul “entitlement programs” such as Medicare and Social Security. This means privatizing Healthcare and Social Security

    McCain Missed Vote On Passage Of 2007 Energy Policy Legislation
    McCain Missed Key Votes On Extending Renewable Energy Tax Credits
    McCain Repeatedly Voted Against Tax Credits For Renewable Energy Production
    McCain's "Mixed Record" On The Environment Includes Votes Against Tougher Fuel Efficiency Standards And Incentives For Renewable Energy

    McCain's recipe of more offshore drilling, new tax breaks for big oil, and gas tax gimmicks won't solve the gas price crisis problem anytime soon, and will actually delay real solutions.

    McCain is offering more of the same failed Bush policies that have driven energy prices through the roof, cost American jobs and put handouts for the oil and gas industry ahead of energy independence. By hanging onto the past and opposing new investments in renewable energy solutions that create jobs and keep the United States competitive, John McCain is showing he doesn't understand the challenges facing America.


    Actually Laura wrote on September 15, 2008 10:56 AM: Actually Laura,

    "We middle americans are not as stupid as you liberals assume...."

    You're acting that way if you're believing all the ridiculous flat out lies that are being spewed by the Republican election campaign -

    I'm getting sick of flat out LIES being shoved down my throat and listening to all these people who seem to take commericals as the "gospel" around here. www.factcheck.org


    Laura wrote on September 15, 2008 09:58 AM: Hello Molly,

    Could you and your newspaper BE more liberal and biased?

    Perhaps the number of readers of your so-called news(paper) would go up if your reporting was a little more fair and balanced - less opinion based. Shoving your opinion down our throats gets old after a while. Media bias towards the Liberal Democrats is out-of-hand and out-of-touch. We middle americans are not as stupid as you liberals assume....So wake up, enough already!!


    HELENWEILS wrote on September 15, 2008 09:37 AM: To Roger, Obama's Mama was knocked up by
    a drunk Muslim with multiple wives and kids all over Kenya at age 17. Who's trailer trash?


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