On paper, the Democrats appear to have the advantage. They have built a large advantage in voter registration: On the rolls, registered Democrats now exceed registered Republicans by more than 80,000. They have been building their grass-roots operation for a year and a half thanks to a hotly contested presidential caucus in January. They're better funded and better organized than the local GOP, insiders on both sides of the aisle acknowledge.

In a possibly ominous sign for Republicans here, McCain last week canceled a planned visit to Reno, while Obama visited the state twice in September.

Meanwhile, Obama's campaign has made an unprecedented play for the state. There are 15 campaign offices statewide, including eight in the Democratic bastion of Clark County, two in Reno and also locations in Minden, Elko, Fernley, Pahrump and Carson City.

In 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry, who lost Nevada by a little more than 20,000 votes, maintained two campaign offices in the state and virtually ignored the rural counties.

The McCain campaign, however, is also mounting an effort in Nevada, and polls show a close race. The Republican shares space with local Republican parties and the GOP's coordinated Victory effort in nine locations across the state, with the headquarters for the entire Western region based in Henderson.

"Clearly, Obama had a head start on building grass-roots support, and you also have to give respect to the fact they've built a formidable team," said Pete Ernaut, a Reno-based Republican consultant and lobbyist who is rooting for McCain but is not part of the campaign.

"McCain's campaign has been playing catch-up, but I think they've done a pretty good job catching up," he said. "These last few weeks they clearly have a much stronger network in the state than the last couple of months."

The result, he said, is that the events of the next few weeks and the campaigns' respective ability to drive their supporters to the polls are what stand to determine whether Nevada stays red or goes blue this election.

The McCain compaigners contend they have a candidate who can draw the votes of independents and Democrats, especially in West, the nominee's home region. And they say vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's selection spurred a spike in enthusiasm for the ticket that has not abated, though national surveys seem to show the Alaska governor's novelty wearing off.

"We're still getting new volunteers every week, folks who haven't volunteered for any campaign prior to this one," spokesman Rick Gorka said. "The demand for any (merchandise) with 'Palin' on it is huge. If she was an NBA star, she'd be the top seller at Nike."

At this stage in the campaign, the focus is on identifying voters, he said: building the database of likely supporters so that once early voting opens in less than two weeks, the campaign can make sure they turn out.

"When the Democrats tout voter registration, it's putting the cart before the horse," Gorka said. "You can register folks, but you've got to get them to the polls. That's what matters. When it comes to our ability to get the McCain-Palin folks to the polls, I am extremely confident."

On a recent weeknight at the Henderson headquarters, 25 volunteers were making calls on Internet-based telephone lines that allowed them to input survey responses directly from the phone into a computer database. The sound of dial tones, ring tones and clicking keys filled the room.

"Hi, my name is Jeany and I'm a volunteer calling on behalf of the McCain campaign," 41-year-old Jeany Carroll recited off the sheet in front of her when someone picked up on the other end. "I'm calling to ask you a few quick questions on the upcoming election if you have a moment."

Carroll went through the next few questions, asking who the person would vote for, whether they also supported Republican Rep. Jon Porter, whether they wanted an absentee ballot and what issues mattered most to them. Then she veered off script: "Oh really? You do? Awesome. Can we contact you back for that?"

Beaming, she covered the mouthpiece of the phone. "He's a Democrat. He wants to know if we have signs that say Democrats for McCain," she said. A staffer said yes, and Carroll gave the man an address where he could get one.

"Thank you so much. This call is authorized by the Nevada Republican Party and McCain for President," she said, hanging up.

Carroll, a cocktail waitress and union member, said she was volunteering for McCain for the first time but previously had volunteered for President Bush's campaigns. She said she is concerned about national security -- "I feel we could be on the brink of World War III" -- and also wants to see "leaders who love Jesus in office."

On another day last week, the Obama campaign was working to make sure every University of Nevada, Las Vegas student registered to vote by the deadline. Saturday was the last day to register without going to a government office in person.

The Los Angeles-based rock band Hoobastank, which had a big radio hit in 2004, was about to play a free concert under a "Change We Can Believe In" banner in the courtyard of the student union. Campaign staffers roamed with clipboards of registration forms and handed out fortune cookies.

When you cracked the cookie open, the message inside said, "Oct. 4 -- Last day to register to vote at the North Field or Student Union. www.voteforchange.com."

Young voters, especially college students, strongly favor Democrats, but they cannot be counted on to vote. Historically, 18- to 24-year-olds have the lowest turnout rate of any age group.

"It's pitiful," said 20-year-old Aaron Turner as he filled out a form. "More people vote for 'American Idol' than vote in the election."

Turner, a junior business major who is also a full-time performer in the Strip show "Stomp Out Loud," already had registered but needed to change his voting address. He said he is hoping young people make a stronger showing this year than in the past.

"We're the next generation. Eventually we're going to have to grow up and make all these decisions, so we might as well start now," he said.

He said most of his friends plan to vote for Obama. "We have a candidate who cares about young people," he said. "Obama, he's trying to help us. We've got to help him back."

The Obama campaign is using technology in new ways to reach youngsters. Before the band went on, staffer Aida Dargahi took the stage and asked everyone in the audience of about 700 to take out their cell phones and send a text message: "Text 'UNLV' to 62262 right now," she said.

The campaign counsels its workers strictly to avoid the press. Dargahi was reluctant to give her name and would not disclose her age or where she is from. A reporter walking through the audience to talk to volunteers and students was tailed by a junior Obama staffer the whole time.

Campaign organizers say another factor that might boost the UNLV youth vote this year is that early voting is being offered at the campus library for two days.

"There's no excuse this time," said volunteer Anthony Hill, 24.

Longtime Nevada Democrats say they have never seen a statewide effort on this scale before. Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, who was the state party chairman in 2000, said the resources and enthusiasm never existed in the past.

"When I was involved in party politics, we talked about having captains in every precinct," he said. "Now we actually have them. There's a level of organization that never has existed here. It's what we always envisioned and now it's a reality, and it's remarkable."

Nonetheless, he said he expects to see a close and hotly contested race down to the end.

"Any objective observer would, I think, accept the fact that the advantage is to the Democrats at this point," he said. "But Republicans believe intensely in their point of view, and they're not just going to give up and go home. I expect this will be what elections are supposed to be, a battle of ideas."

Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball @reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.