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Porter's lead slim against Titus

Pollster says negative ads might be working













The results of a new Review-Journal poll in the 3rd Congressional District race were a surprise to everyone, except the candidate in the lead.

"You're kidding," said Erik Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno.


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  • "I thought Dina would be ahead," said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

    "We are encouraged by the momentum and enthusiasm for our campaign," said Matt Leffingwell, a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev., who held a 3 percentage point lead over Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus.

    The nation's economic collapse, Titus' own ballyhooed polls and Porter's long-standing support for President Bush, now one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. history, would point to a solid Titus lead in the poll, the analysts had thought.

    "I have to tell you, I wouldn't have expected this," Damore said.

    Given that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points, the race is a statistical dead heat.

    "We have taken a big bite out of the 9 point lead she reported having," Leffingwell said.

    Polled were 236 registered voters in the district, which rings Las Vegas and sprawls outward to the edges of Clark County.

    In late September, aides in the Titus campaign reported that a poll they commissioned of 500 likely voters found the longtime leader of the state Senate's Democratic minority leading Porter 46 percent to 37 percent.

    "This poll (the Review-Journal's) isn't consistent with what we've found," Titus said Friday. "I don't believe his (Porter's) message is resonating with voters. I don't think the negative ads are working."

    But Brad Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., the firm that conducted the poll, said the fact that a higher percentage of voters -- 46 percent -- saw Titus in an unfavorable light compared with 34 percent for Porter might well mean that the negative ads are working.

    Coker noted that Porter's ads are much like those Gov. Jim Gibbons used to defeat Titus in her 2006 bid for governor. Those ads often portrayed her as a politician who loved to tax Nevadans.

    Coker described more voters viewing Titus unfavorably as "the brightest spot in the poll for Porter."

    "It's very unusual for the challenger to have that kind of a negative rating," he said. "Of course, she is well-known."

    Porter, who Titus has tried to tie to the highly unpopular President Bush, faces "real problems" in his bid for a fourth term in the House, Coker said.

    "Anytime an incumbent is under 50 percent, it's generally a pretty strong sign of vulnerability," Coker said. "This race is clearly a toss up at this stage."

    What is particularly surprising at this stage of the campaign, Coker said, is that 13 percent of the registered voters polled are still undecided.

    "There may be people who think that neither party has a clue about what to do about the economic situation," Coker said. "Who they break for can mean the election."

    Porter, first elected to the House in 2002 and the only congressman the 3rd District has ever known, has been a vocal supporter of the unpopular Iraq war and was the only Nevada member of Congress to vote for the initial $700 billion bill to shore up the nation's economic system.

    After that bill failed, Titus said she would not have voted for a bill that didn't provide regulation "to ensure a similar crisis does not happen again." Before his second vote on the successful version of the $700 billion bailout bill, Porter said he stood behind his original vote, stressing that he was trying to prevent further financial collapse.

    Herzik said the worsening economy should work in Titus' favor, but said her "caustic wit" has a way of alienating voters.

    He recalled how Titus charged that former Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, who ran against her in the Democratic primary for governor, engaged in "pay to play," arguing that a large contribution to Gibson's campaign only poured in after he gave a businessman a "sweetheart deal."

    "Her wit may sound good to some of the base, but I suspect it may turn independents off," Herzik said. "Gibson is a Democrat, but I don't remember him really going out and supporting Titus for governor. I've heard she is trying to be more careful."

    Herzik said it doesn't work to try to demonize Porter in ads, who he calls a decidedly "low-key nice guy."

    "When you meet him, people can't believe he's some mean guy like Tom DeLay," he said.

    Like Coker, Damore believes the high percentage of those viewing Titus unfavorably is a "hangover from the gubernatorial campaign. ... She got clobbered on the tax issue."

    Damore believes, however, that if the salient issue of the campaign continues to be the economy, "that can only hurt Porter."

    In a June poll before Titus won the Democratic primary, voters were asked who they favored in a matchup between Titus and the incumbent. Porter tallied 45 percent, Titus 42 percent, and 13 percent were undecided.

    Titus is sure the final poll in November will show her on top.

    She said with 36,000 more registered Democrats in the district, she has a distinct advantage.

    "I think we're going to get them out to vote," she said.

    Contact reporter Paul Harasim at pharasim@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2908.

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    Fausto wrote on October 12, 2008 09:36 PM: "I'll gently remind people that the only poll that counts is on Nov 4th - what matters most now is making time on your calendar to volunteer to help out starting October 18th for Early GOTV (Get Out The Vote)!"

    Are the Dallas Cowboys going to be able to make it into town to vote Obama/Titus?


    What's Up wrote on October 12, 2008 09:32 PM: I’m a homeowner in Summerlin. I moved to Vegas and a few years back and bought a house in 2006 (dummy me). I was not speculator, not an investor, but someone who wanted to live in my home. I like it here, but now, I’m probably upside down. I still have no problem making the mortgage payment; however, I have to ask myself, why should I even bother? Does it even make sense?

    I called Porter’s office and told him “NO”! No to the bailout. The banks have already taken the shirt off my back and the pants off my legs. At this point, I don’t care if they take my underware. Heck with it. I don’t give a dam* if the economy comes to a grinding halt. I’m pissed that Porter voted for the bailout. Time to break out the tar and feathers.


    To Mason-Dixon wrote on October 12, 2008 08:30 PM: I see it as 13 percent, of those polled, who weren't interested in revealing who they were going to vote for, to someone on the phone they didn't really know or could verify.

    These phone pollsters need to recognise, the uncomfortable position, so many are put in, receiving blind phone inquiries.

    It's a different world out here, now. How you can expect to depend on confidential voter information, based on random, truely unconfirmable information, is beyond me?

    Read some of the comments below, and tell me if I should be speaking to just anyone who calls my home, claiming to be a legitimate pollster? That time has past.


    Steve wrote on October 12, 2008 06:39 PM: Time for Truth,

    I was here in 2003; were you? There were enough Republicans voting against the tax increase to stop it since they wouldn't have a 2/3 majority. Dina Taxus and the RINO Guinn forced it in front of the extreme left wing radical SC to get them to override the 2/3 majority. They did. Then a deserter coward traitor RINO "Republican" changed his vote so they would have their 2/3 majority. Then, since this occurred, the SC stated that they erred and a 2/3 majority was required but, since they had it anyhow now, it didnt' matter. WRONG...all but one of those ignorant, incompetent, immoral SC "justices" have been removed from the bench and only 1 is left...he is running this year and needs to be removed also since he's entirely too incompetent to be a Justice.


    focus on this wrote on October 12, 2008 05:26 PM: Family Court judge Sandra Pomrenze is running for another seat in Family Court so she can get a raise. If she finishes out her current seat it will mess with her money.

    Now that is your tax dollars at work.


    Bobby wrote on October 12, 2008 05:07 PM: Johnathan L. Abbinett wrote on October 12, 2008 04:03 PM:
    Somebody needs to tell, whoever the decision makers are at, the RJ if you're going to spend money on a poll - at least poll 500 people (1,000 would be much better)...
    ...and when a legitimate poll is done, be honest about conclusions - if it's within the margin of error it's either a "close", or, at best a "toss up" - the RJ has a duty to NOT create more confusion!

    I'll gently remind people that the only poll that counts is on Nov 4th - what matters most now is making time on your calendar to volunteer to help out starting October 18th for Early GOTV (Get Out The Vote)!
    _________________________________

    How can a person vote for someone who they never met? How can you trust these people that only are there to protect the rich and never, NEVER go and work for us THE PEOPLE?

    I'm serious... Even as a small child I could never understand why people vote for people they never met or know.

    Seems odd


    Johnathan L. Abbinett wrote on October 12, 2008 04:03 PM: Somebody needs to tell, whoever the decision makers are at, the RJ if you're going to spend money on a poll - at least poll 500 people (1,000 would be much better)...
    ...and when a legitimate poll is done, be honest about conclusions - if it's within the margin of error it's either a "close", or, at best a "toss up" - the RJ has a duty to NOT create more confusion!

    I'll gently remind people that the only poll that counts is on Nov 4th - what matters most now is making time on your calendar to volunteer to help out starting October 18th for Early GOTV (Get Out The Vote)!


    Mark wrote on October 12, 2008 04:01 PM: I can't support Porter after his vote on the bailout.Judging by her history I'm confident Titus would vote the same way if she was in office. Time to vote for a third party. It isn't a wasted vote. They may not win but the more votes they get the more momentum is garnered to break up this RepDem oligarchy.


    Timefor Truth wrote on October 12, 2008 02:49 PM: Steve,

    BOB BEERS sued Guinn! As did every REPUBLICAN IN THE SENATE AND ASSEMBLY!

    Here, read it for yourself.....it's a simple minded fact;

    governorvslegislature


    Timefor Truth wrote on October 12, 2008 02:32 PM: "that would be jimmy"; you should bone up on your history as to the WHY the economy was it was when Carter took over after 8 years of Nixon/Ford. Carter tried to cut spending but Congress would not let him. Whoever becomes the next president will wish that his presidency had an economy as good as Carter.

    Steve; I am a registered Republican. I speak only to the truth...now that you have a moving target with regards to Titus and taxes, I challange you AGAIN! What statewide taxes are you speaking of that Titus joined with the Republican run Seanate to pass?

    You do understand that more than likely YOUR taxes, aside from property tax, has not increased, right? If you smoke and drink, then yes these are taxed more today. Please PROVE (go get the legislative minutes) and provide proof that Titus (and not Guinn or Raggio) was the main pusher of these taxes...I'll wait right here for you to PROVE your allegations.

    Again, per capita spending has not increased over the days when we had blue license plates.

    As for your statement that "democrats" don't know and can't speak the truth...well, look at OUR Palin! She has done nothing but LIE about troopergate and NOW a commission made uyp of democrats and republicans have found her GUILTY of abuse of power and BREAKING THE LAW! ...and she is the repubhlican candidate for VP of the USA. So sad. so. damn. sad.

    BTW, the majority of Nevada Supreme Court Justices in the Guinn decision (plantiffs included many republican legislators), were registered Republicans.

    Come on back with you bill sponsor list for the tax bills and legislative miniutes that back up your assertion that Titus was the "main" proponent of these taxes.


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