Quantcast
MobileRJ | RSS TwitterTwitter FacebookFacebook E-mail Alerts
Home manage Las Vegas Review-Journal
  Jobs Cars Homes Shopping Travel Weddings Golf Best of Las Vegas Photo   Search:

RECENT EDITIONS
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

sponsored by
News
Nov. 04, 2008
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Consultant expects Obama win in Nevada

By MOLLY BALL
REVIEW-JOURNAL
More Info

A local political consultant's exit polling has him convinced that Democratic nominee Barack Obama will win the state narrowly, that Republican Rep. Jon Porter will be drubbed and that Republican Rep. Dean Heller might eke out a slender victory.

Experts say surveys such as the one conducted by Steve Nathan of Las Vegas must be taken with a grain of salt because of their methodology and because they focus on ascertaining the behavior of those who have already voted, not projecting what those who have yet to cast ballots will do.

Most Popular Stories
  • Three suspects arrested in shooting death of police officer
  • Three suspects arrested in shooting death of police officer
  • FATAL SHOOTING: Police again mourn comrade
  • NORM: Biden finds rank has its privileges
  • Corrections officer dies in collision on U.S. 95
  • Two suspects in officer's slaying could face death penalty
  • Two of three suspects in slaying of officer could face death penalty
  • NORM: Walton: Coach deserved a punch
  • DEADLY HOME INVASION: Police suspect link to family
  • Station Casinos posts $455 million third-quarter loss
  • NORM: 'Girls Gone Wild' creator feels heat




    • Nathan's firm, Dialing Nationwide Automatically, used automated dialing to call every Nevadan who voted early in the last two weeks; he said 16,749 responded to the survey statewide. Nathan contends that automated dialing is more likely than in-person polling to produce accurate results because people who are shy about sharing who they voted for with another person may still be willing to punch in a code.

    The responses are weighted to reflect the known composition of the early-voting electorate.

    In the presidential contest, DNA's exit poll finds that 45.5 percent of those who have voted have chosen Republican John McCain while 51.3 percent have cast ballots for Obama and 2.9 percent for the other candidates on the ballot.

    "The rural areas heavily favor McCain, but I don't think that's going to be enough for him to overcome Obama on Tuesday," Nathan said. "I think Obama will win Nevada by a slight margin."

    In the 3rd Congressional District, where Porter is battling for a fourth term representing mostly suburban areas of Clark County, the exit poll has Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus leading Porter, 55.4 percent to 42.4 percent, with 6.5 percent choosing other candidates among 5,780 respondents. That's a large share of the vote for third-party candidates; Nathan speculated that Titus and Porter have made each other so unlikeable with their barrages of negative ads that they have driven people to cast protest votes.

    But Nathan projected Titus will win by at least 8 points.

    In the 2nd Congressional District, which covers rural and Northern Nevada, DNA's data has Democratic challenger Jill Derby ahead of Heller, 52.3 percent to 47.3 percent, with less than 1 percent casting third-party votes. There were 5,549 survey respondents.

    Over the course of early voting, Nathan said, Derby's lead over Heller has narrowed, and he believes rural turnout on Election Day will put Heller over the top. Derby's strength is believed to be in Washoe County, where Democrats have thus far turned out in higher numbers than Republicans.

    Newsvine Digg Fark Technorati reddit StumbleUpon del.icio.us Slashdot Propeller Mixx Furl Twitter MySpace Facebook Google Bookmarks Yahoo! Bookmarks Windows Live Favorites Ask MyStuff myAOL Favorites

    Leave Your Comment 13 Reader Comments
    Terms & Conditions
    The following comments are provided by readers and are the sole responsiblity of the authors. The reviewjournal.com does not review comments before publication nor guarantee their accuracy. By publishing a comment here you agree to abide by the comment policy. If you see a comment that violates the policy, please notify the web editor.

    Some comments may not display immediately due to an automatic filter. These comments will be reviewed within 48 hours. Please do not submit a comment more than once.
    Current Word Count:

    Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.

    patrick wrote on November 05, 2008 07:55 AM: I wonder what the morons that kept repeating that the pollsters are in the pockets of Obama, or the media is in the tank for Obama are thinking now; wonder if they admit that both were right about this election. Nah, there still neocons after all.

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH


    To Unforget About It wrote on November 04, 2008 06:22 PM: God and Christ has everything to do with it, don't forget about that. May our Creator have mercy on your soul. Take it like man and stop your sobbing. Sniffle, sniffle.


    Unforget about it. wrote on November 04, 2008 05:17 PM: What does Christ and God have to do with this Islamic Socialist who took off the black mask this morning? Start worshipping Farrakhan and Ayers if you want a ride on the Obama Express. Don't worry about me. I got plenty of action from your Momma. Quit blogging. You've got a terror train to catch.


    We Forgive You wrote on November 04, 2008 01:47 PM: For the racists, the bigots, the hate mongers, those who did not get enough hugs from your mothers and fathers: We read the same bible you do, and what Christ teaches is that we will love you no matter how much you hate. Love always wins over hate, whatever color you are. We love you and God loves you too.


    Tammy wrote on November 04, 2008 12:09 PM: Bye Bye Porter!


    Hey Courtney wrote on November 04, 2008 10:04 AM: Courtney, do you only date brothers?

    I'm a cracker, but I dig your vocabulary.

    Three input?


    Mary B. wrote on November 04, 2008 10:02 AM: I just voted for McCain.

    Change, Change, Change......etc,etc,etc...

    Ask them change to what? and they're clueless.


    COURTNEY IS A SMELLEY C*U*N*T!!! wrote on November 04, 2008 10:01 AM: IF THE NI66ERS TAKE THE WHITE HOUSE IT'S CONGIRMED: PLANET OF THE APES WAS ACTUALLY A DOCUMENTARY, A WARNING.

    BLACK PANTHERS APES ON EVERY CORNER "KEEPING THE PEACE."


    Courtney wrote on November 04, 2008 09:45 AM: This is a logical assumation, even those hard core republicans can see it.
    Democratics have turned out to vote in a ratio of 2 to 1. Do the math.
    Nevada will be a blue state and America will finally get the change and chance it so desperately needs.
    Obama '08!


    Polls aren't reliable wrote on November 04, 2008 09:10 AM: Let's face it, the pollsters are big fat zeros.

    None of them have been able to get a good read, because voters have been turned off by the way the media has handled this election.

    The media has been in the tank for Obama, and that has had a chilling effect on voters...specifically Republicans.

    I just thank the pollsters for shedding an unexpected light on voter angst.


    Read All Comments