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BIG DECLINE: Las Vegas now using less water

Why? Conservation efforts, economic woes, population dip

Joblessness is up, budgets are down, and the housing market has yet to hit bottom. But look on the bright side: We're using less water.

Through October, the Las Vegas Valley Water District has sold roughly 4 billion gallons less water than it had by the same time last year, a decline of almost 4 percent.


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  • It is the largest such year-to-year decline for the water district in recent memory.

    There are any number of reasons for the drop, from conservation initiatives including a recent water rate increase to belt tightening by customers trying to ride out the economic slump. But one cause is sure to raise more eyebrows than the others: Less water is being sold because there are fewer people here to buy it.

    Some local demographers now estimate that Clark County's population actually shrank by nearly 10,400 people over the past year.

    The county's official estimate, adopted last week by the Southern Nevada Planning Coalition, shows a population of 1,986,146 as of July 1. That's down 10,396 from last year's estimate of 1,996,542.

    If State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle and Gov. Jim Gibbons sign off on this year's figure, it will mark the first official decline in population since before the county began collecting demographic data in the 1960s, said Jon Wardlaw, who oversees population estimates as assistant planning manager for Clark County.

    In the past year alone, the county estimates that the vacancy rate for all housing units -- from one-room apartments to single-family homes -- has climbed from 4.5 percent to almost 7 percent.

    "We've had some people leave," Wardlaw said. "People come and go in response to jobs -- casino openings and things like that."

    The county's annual population estimate is rooted in a simple formula: the total number of housing units times the occupancy rate times the number of people per household. The complicated part is deciding which values to plug into each part of the equation.

    And not everyone agrees with the county's findings.

    For example, some skeptics question the demographers' method of determining how many homes and apartments now stand vacant. "And I will grant them that," Wardlaw said. "We are consistent, but we may not be right."

    Jeremy Aguero is principal analyst for the Las Vegas-based financial consulting firm Applied Analysis. He believes the so-called "drop" in population is really a correction resulting from inflated population estimates in 2006 and 2007. The people didn't leave; they were never here to begin with, he said.

    "I think we all generally agree with where we are now," Aguero said.

    "The consensus is we're either flat or in a slight decline," Wardlaw agreed.

    In either case, it's nothing to get too excited about, Wardlaw said. He expects it to reverse itself late next spring, as the positive impact of falling fuel prices begin to permeate the local economy.

    "It's less than one-half of 1 percent of the total population," Wardlaw said of the estimated population decline. "It's a trough, and I think it is only temporary."

    As recently as a year ago, the argument among demographers was over when Clark County's population would push past 2 million. After the county fell just short of the mark in the official estimate for July 1, 2007, most population experts agreed that 2008's number would almost certainly begin with a two. That didn't happen, at least not officially.

    "Most of us believe we actually did hit 2 million" before falling back, Wardlaw said. "But there's no way to tell. There's no measure of it."

    By Aguero's estimation, the county's population actually increased by just under 1 percent over the last year.

    "By Southern Nevada standards, that's a very, very slow rate of growth," he said, adding that his firm expects growth to slow even further to about half a percent over the next 12 months.

    The water district's numbers seem to bear that out. Though Nevada's largest water utility has sold less water over last year, it continues to add new customers, albeit at a slower rate.

    The utility now serves 340,096 residential and commercial customers in Las Vegas and unincorporated Clark County, up 2,112, or about six-tenths of a percent, since the beginning of the year.

    The district's customer base grew by 2.5 percent in 2007, 4.9 percent in 2006 and 5.7 percent in 2005.

    "We could see this coming. All the ingredients were there for a reduction in water sales," said J.C. Davis, spokesman for the water district.

    It's impossible to know which factor -- population, conservation, higher rates, or the economy overall -- has played the biggest part in reducing water use, Davis said.

    "I think it's a combination of all those things, and it would be difficult to be able to extract which one is most responsible. You can't really pull the threads apart like that," he said.

    This marks the fourth time since 2003 that the water district has added customers but sold less water than the previous year. From 2002 to 2007, the valley cut its consumptive use of Colorado River water by some 15 billion gallons a year.

    "And during that same span we saw a 400,000 population increase," Davis said. "It really shows how little water people are using."

    Contact reporter Henry Brean at hbrean @reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0350.

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    John wrote on December 19, 2008 08:12 AM: It doesn't matter how much water SNWA sells or doesn't sell. The immediate problem with the SNWA isn't the management of the resources they control, but it is the lack of ability to guarantee the supply in the future.

    The information given by the Coalition of Raising the Standards at the meeting should have been the big story. They stated that 7 states and Mexico depend on and use 16.5 million acre feet per year (supported by the SNWA website) and the Colorado river only supplies 15 million acre feet per year on normal years (again supported by the SNWA website). But on drought years the average is 13.5 million acre feet. Pat Mulroy stated in the meeting that the estimated 15 million acre feet might have been established during a wet season. The experts that measure water by cutting trees and reading the rings estimate the average flow into the Colorado river to be around 13.5 million acre feet. This figure of 13.5 million acre feet minus the drought reduction of 1.5 million acre feet per year make up the real number of acre feet flowing into the Colorado river for the past 8 years to be around 12 million.

    With only 12 million acre feet of supply coming in and 16.5 million acre feet going out it stands to reason Clark County will be out of drinkable water supplied by Lake Mead as early as 2012... so who cares if they sale less water today or tomorrow.

    Clark County is on its way to being the Chernobyl of water in America and no one is saying a word about it from the SNWA.


    CF wrote on December 02, 2008 11:12 AM: I don't think the population was over counted and that people never left here. That is wishful thinking. If you have no family ties or a good paying job, why would anyone want to live here? Until I came here, I had never seen a place with massage parlors in every strip mall, sleazy magazines and traveling advertisements for sex, and homeless people walking around everywhere asking for your money. Then by contrast you have lots of churches which is odd for a city built on immorality. In addition, you have ridiculously hot summers, so hot in fact that this is the only place I have ever lived where it is too hot and miserable to go outside during the summer and enjoy the weather. This is a very depressing and transient city with lots of people who have no connection to each other and hence a city with no soul.


    Roger wrote on December 02, 2008 07:50 AM: Not much of an excuse now for SNWA to rape the groundwater of northern nevada! Vegas is doomed...hee hee hee...


    Free Nevada wrote on November 29, 2008 12:57 AM: The best way to calculate population is to ask the major phone companies (AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Sprint, Embarq, Cricket, MetroPCS) to give you a summary of how many devices were registered on the cell phone networks and landline central offices in the area on any given day and then subtract out the registered guests that were in the hotel rooms. Do that four times a year and take the average. Boom, instant, verifiable and totally accurate census (save for the crazy people with multiple cell phones, lol). Ain't technology grand?


    drillerman wrote on November 28, 2008 02:50 PM: I bet if you really take a good look, we may find 10,000 fewer illegal immigrants. Without the massive home construction boom and home improvements put on hold, the jobs have dried-up and they have headed south for the winter.

    Let's cross our fingers and hope the economy takes a breather just long enough for our streets, schools and other services to catch-up with the boom of the last six years. This really isn't a bad thing.


    DJ2 wrote on November 28, 2008 01:21 PM: In the older and more established neighborhoods of Las Vegas, many of the first homeowners put in lawns. Those who could afford to upgrade to newer neighborhoods as their prior area aged would often put in desert landscaping, while the older homes retained their lawns.

    The end result is that those lower income families who live in older neighborhoods are stuck with water-thirsty landscaping and despite the "drop-in-the-bucket" rebates from the water district to switch, these unfortunate individuals still do not have the hundreds to thousands in discretionary funds to redesign their yards.

    In some older neighborhoods, as many as 1/3 of what used to be grass lawns with shrubbery and trees is now a vacant dirt plot adorned by dead, skeletal mature trees and bushes. Letting the lawn go was the only affordable option.

    Add the neglected yards of the many foreclosed homes to those who've quit watering due to financial struggles, and a significant number of yards are bone-dry now that used to be beautiful as long as 5 years ago.

    As often happens when utilities raise prices to "send a message to conserve", that message only harms those on fixed or now deteriorating incomes. In my opinion, such punitive measures put in place under the guise of "conservation" are direct hits to those on struggling budgets, those who're right on the edge of making it or not, as the well-to-do can always afford the water, water up the wazoo and to excess.

    In addition to that, the already struggling neighborhoods have their property values further depreciated by the preponderance of neglected yards in the ares.


    fred t wrote on November 28, 2008 12:20 PM: Bet the Water people are still hell-bent to build the 2-3 Billion dollar ground water line, Right? As long as there are no controls on growth, or lack thereof, the taxpayer will be eaten alive. Thanks, Pat Mulroy et al.


    TimeRanger wrote on November 28, 2008 11:54 AM: They are selling less water - Watch out...the rates are going to skyrocket so those at the top can continue receiving their fat-cat salaries.


    Fred's Wife wrote on November 28, 2008 10:23 AM: Hey, drinking the water here is cheaper than filling my perscriptions. How else could I get my birth control pills,thyroid medication and blood pressure pills in one conveinient liquid dose? Not to mention the delicious transgendered,two-headed fish available for free from Lake Mead.


    norm wrote on November 28, 2008 10:12 AM: I am glad to see the population decrease here. this bubble has to have come to a end sometime. and if people stopped coming here, why would we need to keep worring about building so many schools every year. and the added traffic etc. And I would think the budget would a little easier to balance.


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