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Poll: Reid would lose if Lowden were to run

Republican Sue Lowden would defeat incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid by 6 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, according to a poll of likely Nevada voters.

Unfortunately for Reid-bashers, Lowden isn't running -- at least not yet.


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  • On Monday, Lowden supporters, including political strategist Robert Uithoven, disclosed the results of a poll commissioned as part of an effort to persuade the Nevada Republican Party chairwoman to run, especially if Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., decides not to challenge Reid.

    The poll by Denver-based Vitale & Associates was conducted July 29-30 and showed that 48 percent of respondents favored Lowden to 42 percent for Reid. Ten percent were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

    Of the 510 poll respondents, 44 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 38 percent as Republicans, 15 percent as independent or non-partisan, and 3 percent declined to state an affiliation.

    The findings reaffirm the notion that Reid is in trouble in his home state, despite expectations that he will raise as much as $25 million to maintain his grip on the seat, said those behind the poll.

    "Sue would have plenty of money to win this race," Uithoven said. "She doesn't have $25 million, but she wouldn't need it."

    Pollster Todd Vitale said the most telling numbers might be the ones related to Reid.

    In three Reid-related categories -- image, approval and whether they would vote to re-elect -- respondents gave the senator a thumbs down. Just 39 percent viewed Reid favorably, and 34 percent said they would vote to re-elect him.

    "All of those are very, very telling pieces of information," said Vitale, who has been a pollster for 15 years. "I've never seen an incumbent with numbers this bad who hadn't had some scandal."

    Uithoven said the fact Reid would need to raise $25 million to hold the seat in a state where he is a familiar presence is evidence of political vulnerability, not strength.

    He also said Reid's position of majority leader makes it easier for opponents to paint him as a career politician who is out of touch with Nevadans.

    That's not how Brandon Hall, Reid's campaign manager, sees it. Hall said that as recently as this week, with the National Clean Energy Summit 2.0 in Las Vegas, Reid is demonstrating how he uses his position in Washington to benefit Nevada residents. The summit focused on the potential for energy upgrades to improve the economy.

    "It highlights the potential Nevada has to be a leading producer of clean energy and create thousands of jobs right here in Nevada," Hall said of the event, which featured former President Bill Clinton, former Vice President Al Gore and current Energy Secretary Steven Chu.

    Hall also said that even though Lowden supporters have produced a poll, they haven't produced her as a candidate. And even if Lowden gets into the race, Hall said, she would need to defeat a field of Republicans to get to the general campaign.

    The Republican contenders include Las Vegas real estate professional Danny Tarkanian, son of former University of Nevada, Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian and Las Vegas City Councilwoman Lois Tarkanian; former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle; attorney and former Marine Chuck Kozak; and investment banker John Chachas.

    "Senator Reid doesn't put a lot of weight in polls," Hall said. "The only number he is focused on right now is Nevada's unemployment number."

    The unemployment figure of more than 12 percent is likely contributing to Reid's low approval rating. The poll showed the economy was respondents' greatest concern. "We've been going through a really tough recession that has hit Nevada really hard, and that is having an effect on how people view their leaders," Hall said.

    Other highlights of the poll results included a near dead heat in terms of generic party preference for the Senate seat Reid holds. The poll showed that 38 percent of respondents favored a Republican in the seat and 39 percent a Democrat.

    The poll also referenced Sen. John Ensign, a Republican caught up in a scandal over an extramarital affair.

    The poll showed that 40 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Ensign, 46 percent an unfavorable view, and 9 percent had no opinion.

    Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.

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    HollandforSenate wrote on October 18, 2009 03:22 PM: Elko, Nevada, USA – September 26, 2009 – Free from a party affiliation and party politics, Jesse Holland offers a voice for Nevadans that too long has fallen on deaf ears in the United States Senate.

    Jesse Holland is running as a Nonpartisan candidate for United States Senate, classified as an Independent candidate by Nevada State law, on the 2010 ballot. Jesse Holland is committed to foundational principles that will result in more unity and soundness, not only for Nevada, but for the United States of America. He affirms, he offers “foundational principles that are not a set of wavering philosophies hidden behind closed doors. His affiliation is the people. His ties are with the people. His loyalty is to serve the best interests of the people of Nevada.”

    “To serve the best interests of Nevada, a representative must listen to those who have entrusted their hopes with that representative,” states Mr. Holland. Headlines continue to clamor dissatisfaction that Americans feel toward the present government and party politics. This election might bring forward many candidates speaking against current political affairs. Jesse Holland encourages voters to investigate all candidates, decipher the truth behind all candidates’ words and exercise their freedom by voting.

    Jesse Holland seeks your vote in 2010 and is confident that voters will find renewed assurance in government representation with him. More about this candidate and the solid principles he holds to, can be found online at his campaign website.

    Contact:
    Jesse Holland
    P.O. Box 2612
    Elko Nevada 89803
    Jesse@HollandforSenate.com
    www.HollandforSenate.com
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    Bill wrote on October 06, 2009 03:03 PM: So Sue, how about the $8K contributions to Harry's past campaigns? By the way, nice job leaving the Republican Party worse then when you found it upon taking over as Party Chair. Where is the Las Vegas Rep. Party office?? Oh yea, it left with 200k plus voters to the Democrats.


    Bill wrote on October 06, 2009 03:02 PM: So Sue, how about the $8K contributions to Harry's past campaigns? By the way, nice job leaving the Republican Party worse then when you found it upon taking over as Party Chair. Where is the Las Vegas Rep. Party office?? Oh yea, it left with 200k plus voters to the Democrats.


    Stanna & Bob Musick wrote on October 01, 2009 08:51 AM: We are thrilled that you are going to run against Sen Reid. I am spreading the news across the country and to all the military I am in contact with. It is time to get someone in office that really cares about Nevada the issues we face. Yucca for one that could have brought in Millions of dollars in solid form. People don't realize the liguid that passes through Vegas in trucks. A rail coming right to Yucca from the boarders would be fantastic. Most people never took a tour and have no idea of the safty of the project.
    The Southern Bypass around Boulder City is another project that Reid made big promises to our mayor and then went on to forget the promise as usual. Titus came to B.C. and when asked about the bypass made the statement that we were to small a community to worrie about. When the bridge is finished and thousands of cars and trucks start up the canyon on 93 we are going to have one accident and death after another. Talk about ignorant these two are a pair to draw too.
    Now we are 47th in state rankings. When does this end and we get some intrellignece to replace Reid and hopfully we won't have his son as governor.
    Reid would not even send me a form letter when I ask his office for a contact to send my 25 boxes a month to Iraq Borders for the Marines. He has no support the the men and women dieing for our country only for himself and his family to get them in office. We are sick of even the sight of him.
    Thank you for caring and my God Bless you and support you.
    Sincerely
    Stanna Musick


    Stanna Musick wrote on October 01, 2009 08:37 AM: To the Editor:



    It is time we all stood up and took a stand on the Health Care Issue that is being pushed through congress without thought or knowledge. Finely the Doctors are voicing their opinion on this Bill, we could be losing some of our desperately need physicians to early retirement. Most of our Senators and Representatives had not even read the Bill and what they decide now will affect every generation for years.

    If you have traveled to other countries and heard about Socialized Medicine

    you should write or call your representatives and tell them to think carefully before they vote on something they really have no knowledge of and no statistics on. With elections coming up I for one chose not to vote for any incumbents the way our country is headed. They do not read the bills and therefore have no idea of the lasting effects we will suffer in the future and that our children and elderly will have to go through. We are not sheep to be driven from one pasture of stupidity to another. It is time to take a stand and force our representatives to listen to their constituents. My personal opinion is that they have all been in office to long and it is time for new blood, new ideas and officials that know how to read before voting on issues that form our future and those of our children and grandchildren.

    If our Senators and Representatives are determined to force this bill through they should be required to come under the same plan!!

    Disgusted and worried,

    Stanna Musick


    NoWaySue wrote on September 23, 2009 12:40 PM: The only office I think Sue LOWden deserves: dog catcher. We haven't forgotten, Sue.


    Robert Holloway wrote on August 29, 2009 10:42 AM: I don't believe that Sue Lowden can win the Republican primary, if she decides to run. Her sordid actions at last year's Republican state convention will be remembered.


    Ricardo Cova wrote on August 26, 2009 11:31 PM: id like to know how come harry reid was so helpfull to the auto industry but i havent heard him defend or help nevadas main industry ,tourism and gaming


    NobamaNetwork wrote on August 25, 2009 01:35 PM: In a recent letter I received from Harry Reid he made this incredible statement: “As Nevada's senior senator and the Senate Majority Leader, it is my job to do what is in the best interest of the people of Nevada.” Clearly he has forgotten his job is to represent the voters, something he has not done for a long time. This is the main reason he will not be reelected.

    I hope Sue Lowden runs for I believe she would do a great job at representing the voters and upholding the Constitution. However, at this point my dog could defeat Harry Reid.


    Sandy Hahn wrote on August 23, 2009 03:41 PM: I am waiting for her to run so that I can vote for someone who is smart, honest and knows who she works far.


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