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STATEWIDE POLL: Clinton has huge lead in Nevada

No clear-cut front-runner among Republican hopefuls







Nevada Democrats want Hillary Clinton to be their presidential nominee, while the Republican field is practically a four-way tie, according to a new Review-Journal poll of partisans who say they will participate in the state's nominating contests next year.

John McCain held a slim lead on the Republican side with just 19 percent of the vote. But Mitt Romney (15 percent), Fred Thompson (13 percent) and Rudy Giuliani (12 percent) were all close behind.


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  • Clinton would get 37 percent of the vote if a Democratic caucus were held today, holding a healthy lead over John Edwards (13 percent) and Barack Obama (12 percent), according to the poll.

    "Hillary is the clear front-runner on the Democratic side," said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the survey. "The Republican race is just wide open. There's no clear favorite."

    The poll, conducted Monday to Wednesday statewide, surveyed Republican and Democratic partisans who said they planned to participate in the 2008 presidential nominating caucuses. Three hundred voters were surveyed on each side. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

    At this point, eight months before the contests that will help determine the nominees, such numbers are highly preliminary and can't be considered predictive, Coker noted.

    But they serve as a benchmark against which to measure candidates' movement up or down in future polls. And given Nevada's new status hosting second-in-the-nation nominating caucuses on both the Democratic and Republican sides, polls here will be closely watched, he said.

    On the Democratic side, Clinton has a more formidable lead in Nevada than in most national polls, many of which have shown Obama creeping up on the New York senator. For example, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in late April put Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 31 percent and Edwards at 20 percent.

    That may reflect the fact that Obama has made few trips to Nevada and hasn't seemed to focus on the state, said University of Nevada, Reno, political scientist Eric Herzik.

    Obama traveled to Las Vegas in February and March, but he has not been to Northern Nevada. Clinton and Edwards have both made multiple trips to Northern and Southern Nevada, most recently last weekend.

    Clinton also boasts the support of influential Nevada figures including Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid and former Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa.

    "Hillary Clinton was the favorite going in, and she's done nothing to hurt herself, particularly in Nevada," Herzik said. "She's been here a few times, and she has a strong organization."

    Edwards, however, can't be happy about his low level of support in Nevada, a state where his aggressive pitch to organized labor ought to be an advantage, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

    "This is really bad news for Edwards," Sabato said. "Nevada is supposed to be one of his stronger states because of labor. That's remarkably low for him."

    Prospective candidates who haven't yet said they're going to run were included in the poll, among them, Al Gore, who got 9 percent. Gore may have taken votes that would otherwise have gone to Edwards or Obama, Coker noted.

    New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who has mounted an aggressive push in Nevada, came in fifth in the poll with 6 percent. National polls have generally put him at 2 or 3 percent.

    "He's a Westerner. His campaign has been selling us analysts on the idea that he's going to be the regional Western candidate, but so far he's not doing so well," Sabato said. "Six percent is double his national number, but so what? It's still 6 percent."

    On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Giuliani leads most national polls, followed by McCain, Thompson and Romney. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put Giuliani at 33 percent, McCain at 22 percent, Thompson at 17 percent and Romney at 12 percent.

    Thompson, the "Law & Order" star and former Tennessee senator, has not yet entered the race.

    Those national poll numbers are seen as very soft and subject to fluctuation as Republican voters evaluate a wide-open field. Nevadans' answers reflect that uncertainty, Herzik said.

    "There is no clear Republican favorite, in Nevada or nationally," he said. "This race is anyone's to win."

    Republicans, he said, are behind Democrats in campaign terms, particularly in Nevada, where the decision to hold an early nominating caucus was made just last month. Democrats have been planning their Jan. 19 caucus, scheduled for after the Iowa caucuses and before the New Hampshire primary, since last August.

    "Republicans will start showing up in Nevada, but at this point they're behind in the process," he said.

    The Review-Journal poll was taken before Thursday night's debate among Republican candidates. Another candidate who hasn't announced whether he's running, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, also made a dent in the Review-Journal poll, with 7 percent support.

    McCain has made campaign appearances in Northern and Southern Nevada in recent weeks. Giuliani raised more money in Nevada than any other candidate of either party in the first quarter, and he has some high-profile supporters here such as state Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio and U.S. Rep. Jon Porter.

    Romney has yet to campaign in Nevada. The former Massachusetts governor's only trip here was a private fundraiser in Las Vegas in March.

    Sabato noted that 28 percent of Nevada Republicans said they were undecided, compared to 19 percent of Democrats.

    "It's a jump ball, nationally and in Nevada," he said. "Republicans are much less decided than Democrats."

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    conan wrote on October 14, 2007 12:36 PM: my comment does not count.


    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on July 28, 2007 02:49 PM: I really hope Republicans coalesce around a good conservative soon. We need to get unified and organized to defeat Hillary.


    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on July 27, 2007 02:00 PM: Isn't it just like Las Vegas to support the most liberal potential Republican nominee? Guiliani is probably the best New York City mayor in history, but he has never held federal office. Guiliani is far too liberal to acquire the Republican nomination. I don't think the party will buy him. There are far too many good conservatives who are vying for the nomination. I for one am casing my support for Fred Thompson.


    Viv and Harold Isen wrote on May 10, 2007 03:13 PM: Hillary Clinton gets our full support and our votes!

    In our opinion, there is no other candidate who can compare or who can even come close to Hillary.


    Jack Parkman wrote on May 07, 2007 12:26 PM: To Whom it May Concern:

    In the future please do not conduct such polls unless they include an broader range of the declared candidates.

    As one of your sources noted, "There is no clear Republican favorite, in Nevada or nationally," he said. "This race is anyone's to win."

    Another noted that "It's a jump ball, nationally and in Nevada," he said.

    Excluding nationally-known candidates like Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, etc., makes this poll worthless. The margin of error is only 6 points if the candidate list winds up matching (exactly) what you say it does. When you exclude candidates (or add non-candidates), the margin of error jumps dramatically and cannot be measured.

    Additionally, this is essentially "push polling." You're telling those answering that poll (and even those reading your story) that "these are the frontrunners." Is your true goal to measure public opinion, or to influence it? If you're looking to accurately measure the electorate, and to be fair to candidates, you simply must include all the candidates (and NOT include non-candidates, or conduct a separate poll which includes them for comparison purposes).

    Thank you.


    Brian wrote on May 07, 2007 08:27 AM: I'd be interested to see the polling after the debates, since Ron Paul seems to have done so well in all of the online polls. He definitely has my vote.

    Vote Ron Paul 2008


    Michael Ray Thompson wrote on May 06, 2007 04:15 PM: Dear Sirs: It seems to me that you have no interest in any Republican or conservative candidate for any political office. All I seem to read in your website is something positive about the liberals and Democrats. You seem to block everything that has a conservative or Republican tilt. Please correct this bias?


    juliet wrote on May 06, 2007 02:45 PM: I HOPE HILLARY GET THE PRESIDENCY--IF NOT IS OUR LOSE ALL AMERICAN POR OR MIDDLE CLASS//WOMEN OR MEN.WE REMEBER DURING CLINTON YEARS HILLARY AND BILL RUN THIS COUNTRY WERE ALL HAPPY- SURPLUS?JOBS?AND ETC, EVERYTHING ELSE. THEN THE PEOPLE PUT BUSH TWICE WHAT HE DID?DESTROY THIS COUNTRY EIGHT YEARS NO JOB CREATION//NO NOTHING/ ALL BUSH DOES KILLING LOTS OF PEOPLE IN ABRAOD.
    REPUBLICAN PARTY IS THE PARTY OF BILLIONAIRE- PLEASE AMERICAN PEOPLE DONT VOTE FOR REPUBLICAN PARTY FOR PRES, THEY DONT CARE ABOUT POOR AND MIDLE CLASS.THEYRE THE PARTY OF DESTROYING THIS COUNTRY NO COMPASSION AT LEAST THE CLINTON IS VERY GOOD IN THIS COUNTRY SO FAR.HILARY IS THE WOMAN OF COMPASSION/SMART/TALENTED/KNOWLEGABLE/
    OBLIGING/GENEROUS/CHEERFUL/OUT GOING AND HAS COMPASSION JUST LIKE HER HUSBAND BILL CLINTON.THIS IS PUT LAST CHANCE TO PICK THE CLINTON- THEYRE THE ONE WHO SOLVE THIS BUSH MESS//IF HILARY WONT EGT THE NOMINATION?I DONT CARWE AB OLUT POLITICS/DEMO OR REPUBLICAN.LET AMERICA DESTROY THIS COUNTRY. IF REPUBLICAN GET IN THE WHITE HOUSE.ANOHTER DESTROY COUNTRY FOR TE THIRD TIME-OH MY GOD. SO FAR HILLARY WITH THE HELP OF BILL CLINTON IS THE BEST FOR THE JOB. WELL EPSREIENCE. HOPE YOU READ THIS MESSAGE FROM ME; UR PHSYCHIC/CLAIRVOYANT LADY JULIET


    NVMojo wrote on May 06, 2007 08:31 AM: Clinton is not my candidate. And I have yet to meet one person who is voting for her unless they are lying.

    Go Edwards!

    PS
    How come you don't call me and ask me who I am voting for? Who are these people you call? Hmmmm?