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Forecasts: Nevada to lose more jobs, more people
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LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL CAPITAL BUREAU
Updated: Jan. 22, 2010 | 6:21 p.m.
CARSON CITY — The chief state economist predicted today that Nevada will lose nearly 90,000 more jobs during the next two years, while the state demographer said the state population could decline by another 100,000 people over the next five years.
“We are really in unprecedented times,” economist Bill Anderson told the Economic Forum. “We have never gone through this kind of economic downturn.”
Demographer Jeff Hardcastle even apologized to the five forum members in announcing he was bringing more bad news.
Anderson said that Nevada lost 118,000 jobs, or 9.5 percent of its overall total, in 2009. He predicted 65,000 more jobs will be lopped off in 2010, followed by 24,000 job losses in 2011.
While Nevada’s announced unemployment rate was 13 percent, Anderson said studies show it could be 75 percent higher if you included the number of people who out of frustration no longer look for jobs and the number of people who hold part-time jobs when they would prefer to work full time.
Hardcastle — who in December reported a 1 percent decline in the state’s population in fiscal year 2009 — said the population could decline by another 100,000 to a population of 2,610,000 in 2015, depending on the availability of jobs.
If more jobs are available, then he said the population could increase by 115,000 to 2,827,000 in 2015. Under any scenario, population growth in Nevada, once the fastest growing state, no longer will be a “revenue driver,” he said.
“At this point, I don’t have a firm answer the way things will go,” Hardcastle said.
Based on these analyses and forecasts of others, the Economic Forum will determine today how much money will be available for state government to spend between now and June 30, 2011. Its decision is not expected until late in the afternoon.
When it met on May 1, the forum, a group of five business leaders, predicted total tax revenues during the two-year budget period of $6.3 billion.
But because of continued declines in sales, gaming and other taxes, the Gibbons administration has predicted that figure will drop by $450 million and require the governor to call the Legislature into a special session to cut spending.
Gibbons is scheduled to meet again with legislators on Tuesday. Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, D-Las Vegas, has called for legislators to meet with the governor in early February and set matters for a special session.
In a news release Thursday, Gibbons blamed the Democrats for the state’s fiscal problems. During the 2009 session, legislators overrode his vetoes and increased taxes by $1 billion.
The governor himself, however, let a $219 million increase in the room tax rate go into effect without his signature.
“Nevada government must reduce its spending. Just like everyone at home, the state of Nevada must live within its means,” Gibbons said Thursday.
“The Democrat-controlled Legislature raised taxes and increased spending, while I stood by my promise to the voters by vetoing their higher taxes and spending. But they wouldn’t listen and now we have to endure the consequences of their actions,” he said.
But Gibbons, who will set the agenda for a special session, cannot pass anything without support of Democrats, who hold a 28-14 advantage in the Assembly and a 12-9 edge in the Senate.
Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.
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I bet Harry Reid is happy that the people that hate him the most are going to be leaving the state since they no longer have jobs or homes.Way to go Harry!
Cut State, County, and City Government Administrative Management and Mid-level management positions. Assistant Directors. Assistant Deputy Directors, Assistant Managers. These positions have little impact on Day to Day operations, and are easily eliminated. But the people in these positions "Generate" excuses for having meetings, and Focus Groups to look into improving one thing or another, and make lots of suggestions, but follow through on nothing, except setting up more meetings to further discuss the topics of the last meeting. These people are Supervisor suck-ups who fill in their day with unnecessary meetings and swilling down coffee and going to lunch, then coming back for that late afternoon meeting. It's all cronyism, and covering their own unnecessary Butts, generating bogus problems to need resolving or discussing. Cut the waste from the top. Pressure the Top Administrators for State, County, and City Governments to cut from the top, or face losing reelection. The unjustifiable Salaried employees are the ones making 100k-200k a year to create and attend meetings. Eliminate 500 of those unnecessary positions, and the State budget will be back on track.
The Good News is: Even though the City of Las Vegas is broke, and operating in the red, the City Council continues to Create Hispanic Jobs by spending tens of millions of Tax Dollars on New Parks and Park Upgrades in each Councilmans district. The new park at Washington and Buffalo, you know, the Professional Tennis park that cost over 80 MILLION dollars alone explains the 69 million dollar shortfall the City is on the hook for. Political Candidates need the Hispanic vote for reelection. Especially Councilman Reese, who wants to be Mayor. Also more good news, the Mob Museum won't lose its 15 million dollar Tax Payer funding just because the City is broke. And The New City Hall will still be built, because the City has already purchased the NEW FURNITURE that will go into it. Furniture Purchase orders were approved many weeks ago. Also more good news, the city being broke hasn't deterred the City Council led by Mayor Goodman, to forge ahead with the plans for a new Performing Arts Center downtown, and possibly a new Sports Stadium downtown. Probably larger than the one recently built at Pecos and Washington for Councilman Reese and his constituents that just opened. That one has a Large Stadium, and a restaurant (probably serving Hispanic cuisine). Mayor Goodman has a special interest in renovating Downtown. He and a business partner John Spilotro share ownership in two prime lots at Bonneville and Casino center. If downtown fails, they don't get the egg from the Golden Goose. So the Downtown Renovation Project has no budget ceiling. But the City can always make up the Council Spending shortfall, by laying off working people, and reducing services to the Tax Paying public. Incumbents suck.
Hussein Obama is an economic terrorist.
Weve given Obama one year so far and every decision he's made has been very poor. Healthcare reform is really a scam to run private insurance companies out of business and to promote socialized medicine which will make healthcare in America 10X worse than it is now for everyone. Currently, millions of dollars each year are written off by hospitals and clinics for free healthcare (that's a fact) Next, Obama has quadrupled the deficit in one year with spending out of control leading to nothing improved, Unemployment is at an all time high in 26 years!, unstable national security here and abroad, bank takeover, increased taxation at every bracket, apologies, teachable moments, lipstick on a pig, stimulus, stimulus again. WHAT does it take ms johnson for you to see, the Democrats are destroying our country. Do you follow Obama cause he's black, I wonder too!
Things just keep getting worse and worse here. Why dosen't Obama give our state some incentives to attract big business, like tax breaks, to build corporate head quaters here. The employers could then tap the labor pool here that are desperate for work.