Obama the one to beat in Nevada, poll shows

President Barack Obama would win Nevada if the general election were held now, according to a new poll that shows Republican Mitt Romney the closest GOP competitor nipping at his heels.

The survey has Romney edging Obama among swing independents, but the president leads overall thanks to strong backing from Democrats as Romney fights to win over more Republicans.

The poll, commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow, pitted the president in head-to-head matchups against Republican challengers.

It confirms that Nevada is a key battleground that could decide the 2012 White House race -- and that Romney is the GOP favorite with the strongest chance to contest Obama's re-election.

Obama had 45.7 percent support compared with 39.8 percent for Romney in the survey, a six-point advantage. The remaining 14.5 percent said they didn't like either choice or didn't know whom to pick.

The president crushed U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, 45.4 percent to 35.7 percent, in the poll for a 10-point advantage. And Obama stomped Newt Gingrich by 12 points, 47.3 percent to 35.4 percent.

The rest of the GOP presidential contenders, who have all but ignored Nevada, fell off dramatically when matched against Obama, although his support here remained mostly below 50 percent.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics in Virginia, said that the results bode well for Obama but that the president can't count on winning Nevada given its dire economic conditions. The state has the highest jobless rate in the nation at 13 percent and record home foreclosures.

"The incumbent president is below 50 percent. That's far from secure," said Sabato, who counts Nevada as one of seven battleground states that probably will determine who wins the White House. "Given the economic conditions in Nevada, it's remarkable he's ahead at all."

The other battlegrounds are Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Colorado, Florida and Virginia, he said.

OBAMA HAS DEMOCRATS' SUPPORT

Less than a year before the November election, Obama has support from 78.5 percent of Democrats in Nevada, the poll shows. Romney is backed by 73.3 percent of Republicans as he tries to woo conservatives, who are leaning toward Gingrich, the former House speaker.

Among independents, Romney is the only GOP contender beating Obama, according to the survey, which shows Romney with 34 percent support among nonpartisans compared with 32.3 percent for Obama. About one-fifth of the Nevada electorate isn't aligned with either major political party.

The telephone poll of 600 registered Nevada voters was conducted by the Cannon Survey Center of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. The survey, which included land lines and cellphones, was taken Dec. 12 through Tuesday. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Obama is by far the leader in general election matchups with the lower-tier GOP candidates:

■ 50.8 percent to 31.1 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

■ 50.2 percent to 27.1 percent for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.

■ 49.3 percent to 30.9 percent for former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

■ 48.8 percent to 30.1 percent for Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor.

Some of those candidates may drop out before Nevada's Feb. 4 GOP presidential caucus if they don't do well in January, when Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida vote.

Romney is favored to win the GOP caucus in Nevada, where the former Massachusetts governor and company turnaround expert finished first in 2008 ahead of Paul. Both Republicans have campaigned in the Silver State several times and have well-developed staff and volunteer organizations here. Gingrich has a couple of political consultants working in the Silver State but has not opened a Nevada office.

A new survey of registered Republicans in Nevada shows Romney leading the GOP pack here, followed closely by Gingrich, with Paul in third and the other competitors far behind.

Romney has 33.1 percent support, with Gingrich at 29.2 percent and Paul at 12.7 percent, according to the poll, which did not focus on likely GOP caucus-goers. Bachmann has 5 percent followed by Santorum at 3.4 percent, Huntsman at 2.9 percent and Perry at 2.5 percent.

The telephone poll taken by Cannon Survey Center this past week questioned 224 registered Republicans and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.

ROMNEY DISMISSES GOP POLL

The Romney campaign dismissed the Republican poll because it didn't question voters likely to attend the party caucuses, a devoted group of people supporting specific candidates.

As for the general election, a top Romney adviser said the campaign thinks the Republican can close the gap with Obama and win Nevada once voters focus on the economy and a two-man race.

"Governor Romney has spent a lot of time in Nevada and he understands Nevada issues," said Ryan Erwin, the adviser. "Nevada has been hit pretty hard by the government's policies. Governor Romney is the candidate who's in the best position to turn around this economy. The closer we get to the election, the more you're going to find people gravitating toward Mitt Romney."

The Obama campaign said the survey shows Nevadans are rejecting GOP ideology.

"These polling results further underscore what is already apparent: Republicans have no plan to restore middle- class security, and their policies would just make things worse," said spokeswoman Ofelia Casillas, who slammed the tea party "agenda of obstruction." "The Republican plan to cut taxes for millionaires and billionaires, roll back regulations and let Wall Street write their own rules are exactly the same policies that caused the economic crisis and devastated the middle class."

In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 12 points over U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., thanks to a Democratic Party voter registration drive and to Hispanics, a growing political force in the state that overwhelmingly backed him. The final tally was 55.15 percent for Obama and 42.65 percent for McCain.

Nevada Democrats still have a 60,000 voter registration edge over Republicans.

The Obama campaign never turned out the lights on its community organizing machine. It has made more than 495,000 phone calls to Nevadans since Obama announced his re-election bid in April, according to the campaign. And the organization has received more than 46,170 preprinted cards from Nevadans who expressed interest in volunteering by declaring, "I'm in!"

Obama has 3,740 active Nevada volunteers, getting a jump start on the GOP competition.

NEVADA COULD BE ALL-IMPORTANT

Former Gov. Bob List, a GOP national committeeman, said Nevada could still play a decisive role, although the state Republicans gave up their No. 3 spot in the early voting lineup for No. 5.

According to the latest polls, Paul could win the Iowa caucuses, Romney the New Hampshire primary, and Gingrich the South Carolina and Florida primaries. That would make Nevada a must-win state for Romney to hold off Gingrich and Paul.

"If Romney does very poorly in South Carolina and Florida and Gingrich does well, it could put some air under Gingrich's wings in Nevada," said List, who added Romney remains the man to beat in the state. "I think Nevada takes on a very significant role in that circumstance."

Trending topics:

• 8 NewsNow
• Barack Obama
• Cannon Survey Center
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• Nevada
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Comments

Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.

1. Jorge.Mansilla Jan. 3, 2012 | 2:53 p.m. Report Abuse

   7/24/11 Hispanically Speaking News: While Congress & the nation remains focused on the debt ceiling talks Obama took time to reaffirm his commitment to making the DREAM Act a reality. Obama spoke on Univision Radio saying that "he remains committed to seeing undocumented immigrant students who attend college or serve in the military have "a path to citizenship", we are pursuing it right now. We were pursuing it last year, we should be welcoming (the illegal students) and so I’ve consistently said that I am a strong supporter of the DREAM Act.” I ask, who is "WE'? He can't even call them ILLEGALS. NOBODY becomes a Citizen before being lawfully admitted as a Legal Resident & this is done in the country of origin, not here. Our military is not a depot for criminal lawbreakers either. Ron Paul 2012!!!

2. Jorge.Mansilla Jan. 3, 2012 | 2:51 p.m. Report Abuse

   A Judge rejected her application for asylum & was ordered to leave the US, Zeituni Onyango, the Kenyan's aunt, was granted political asylum after spending 10 YEARS as an ILLEGAL ALIEN in Boston, living on public housing, receiving welfare & collecting DISABILITY CHECKS! The Kenyan's aunt said: "If I come as immigrant you have the OBLIGATION to make me citizen". It's on YouTube.

3. Jorge.Mansilla Jan. 3, 2012 | 2:49 p.m. Report Abuse

   I registered w/the Republican party just so I can vote in the caucus for Ron Paul. I am sick and tired of the thousands and thousands of illegals that have invaded this town. I am sick of the major hotels/ casinos hiring illegals by the thousands, as well as the restaurants, the gift shops, the property managers etc. I oppose illegal aliens, they are lawbreakers, they skipped all the steps to come here legally, why? Because they CAN. I'm sick of the Unions, the ACLU, the Mexican media and that extreme left org. La Raza sticking up for the illegal lawbreakers. Why should I have to pay for their anchor babies schooling/meals/medical/ welfare? I know dozens of illegals, one of them has 9 kids so far, he works in a major hotel, he's getting a salary plus welfare and other goodies for his 9 brats. I could go on and on. None of the other candidates will touch, let alone do something about this invasion except for Ron Paul. He has a well thought plan which people should read, it's on Google and on his website. Tell the illegals to pull this cra.p on China, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea or better yet, on Israel.

4. Fanny Mae Dec. 24, 2011 | 9:03 a.m. Report Abuse

   JA, perhaps you're right, but perhaps you are not right. Perhaps the financial experts aiding and advising the president predicted absolute catastrophe if he did not spend. We don't know. This situation seems to not have a clear-cut answer. So the presidents will have to do what they believe is right. At the end of the day, a decision has to be made. I don't believe the President is sitting comfy in Washington as a slackard, but like I said, with a man like Gingrich in office, there should be no more excuses. The people will get their "experienced tough guy." If it happens, I don't want hear more complaining.

5. Jim.Aamodt Dec. 24, 2011 | 7:39 a.m. Report Abuse

   I think the alternative to spending the money would have been a little more pain for a shorter amount of time and that by now we would be on the upswing economically, Fannie.
   
   I'm a strong conservative but I do not really want Gingrich or anyone else who will be so divisive in our nations politics. I was not a Romney supporter at first but I'm leaning that way now because I think we need someone who can bridge the divide and bring this country closer together before it is too late. Obama is extremely divisive and we can expect 4 more years of hell if he gets reelected I predict not to mention more of his socialist agenda.

6. Fanny Mae Dec. 23, 2011 | 10:44 p.m. Report Abuse

   Hindsight says, "Mr. President, you shouldn't have spent the money," but what was the alternative? Would you really want the alternative? I'd say, more like btw a rock and a hard place.

7. Fanny Mae Dec. 23, 2011 | 10:27 p.m. Report Abuse

   -----That's why I say that with Gingrich at the helm and things continuing to suck, maybe citizens will come to the conclusion that whatever is going wrong today is bigger than we thought and that it will take more than a single president to make things right. ----
   -----Personally, I think a large amount of people suck -- Big Time --and if people suck, we will have a sucky world. It has a domino effect on everything.

8. Jim.Aamodt Dec. 23, 2011 | 10:08 p.m. Report Abuse

   Yeah, it is a new day and time Fanny Mae and it sucks! Unfortunately, Obama has done NOTHING to make it any better and with his outrageous spending, he has prolonged the pain for a long time to come.

9. Fanny Mae Dec. 23, 2011 | 9:41 p.m. Report Abuse

   JDoes President Obama have that much power over citizens? I think not. A few little words from the President and people automatically stop gambling, huh? If they do what he says, they must agree with him. Btw, I agreed with him. You should not be blowing your mortgage money in Las Vegas or anywhere else. People have to act responsibly, especially during these hard times. And people who aren't used to having financial difficulties need a reality check. It can happen to them too. Everybody better be prepared for change and stop daydreaming about years gone when situations were different. There is no blast to the past. This is a new day and time.

10. Jim.Aamodt Dec. 23, 2011 | 8:19 p.m. Report Abuse

    What has Obama done for Nevada besides killing Yucca Mountain (and the several thousand associated jobs related to YMP)? Nothing, and neither has Harry Reid. What did Obama say? Something about how you should not blow a bunch of cash in Las Vegas when you are trying to pay your mortgage or save for college? I moved from Las Vegas to Wichita, KS where he has bashed corporate jet owners so bad that he has nearly destroyed the aircraft industry here. What has Obama done to garner anyone's support in Las Vegas or anywhere else in the country?

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