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Poll: Reid can't gain ground on Sandoval
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LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL/8NEWSNOW
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© 2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
On the campaign trail Rory Reid touts plans to improve the economy, fix the schools and balance Nevada's upside down budget.
But he hasn't yet unlocked a formula for the most vexing problem his campaign faces -- closing ground on opponent Brian Sandoval.
A new poll by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow shows the Republican Sandoval ahead of the Democrat Reid 53 to 31 percent among likely voters.
The 22 percentage-point margin is five points wider than results of a similar poll two weeks ago -- although a compilation of all public polls taken in the race shows a margin of about 14 points in Sandoval's favor.
Still, the latest results suggest more than two months Reid has spent criticizing Sandoval on television, the Web and in personal appearances while touting his own credentials hasn't improved the Democrat's standing with the electorate.
With Election Day a little more than two months away and the first proper debate scheduled for Sunday night, the deficit means Reid is under the gun to gain ground fast.
"Reid does not have a lot of time to turn this thing around," said Jennifer Duffy, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "The fact that he is just over 30, that Sandoval is over 50, there is not any good news in this poll for Rory Reid."
As problematic for Reid as the horse race results are the candidates' favorable and unfavorable profiles in the survey responses.
When asked about Sandoval, a former federal judge and state attorney general, 48 percent of respondents had a favorable impression, 17 percent had an unfavorable impression, 31 percent were neutral and 4 percent didn't recognize him.
Those numbers haven't changed much despite Reid's repeated claims Sandoval is a flip-flopper on immigration issues and planning to lay off as many as 5,000 teachers to balance the budget, charges Sandoval denies.
Conversely Reid, chairman of the Clark County Commission, was recognized favorably by just 27 percent of respondents, unfavorably by 43 percent, neutral by 26 percent and unrecognized by 4 percent.
That's despite campaigning around the state, taking pains to meet with countless small groups of voters and using a extensive contributions to build a robust campaign organization.
Reid is still behind Sandoval in every category except among Democrats, and even there he lost ground since the last poll.
"Reid just isn't getting any traction anywhere," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, who conducted the poll.
The latest Mason-Dixon poll of 625 Nevadans has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It is the third Mason-Dixon poll in a month, with Sandoval's lead growing from 11 to 16 to 22.
The poll included responses from 267 Democrats, 251 Republicans and 107 independents, reflecting the registration breakdown in the state. It was also weighted to reflect population distribution, with more respondents from Clark County than from Washoe and the rural counties.
A broader selection of polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics shows Sandoval leading by an average margin of 14 percentage points in the six surveys taken since July 16. The average doesn't include the latest results.
Numbers among sub-groups -- except Democrats -- in the Mason-Dixon poll aren't any better for Reid than the overall results.
Although the sub-group results have higher margins-for-error than top-line results, they show Reid's campaign needs to do better with every group tested.
Among men Sandoval leads 61-23, among women 46-38 and among independents 55-22.
In Clark County, Reid's home turf and an area he has to win by a large margin to have a chance to become the next governor, Sandoval leads 49-33.
"What it means is the attacks on Sandoval have not stuck. It almost insinuates the attacks have had a negative effect," said Ryan Erwin, a Republican political consultant who isn't involved in the gubernatorial race.
Erwin and others say it means Sandoval would be best served to stay positive and avoid making mistakes, starting with the debate scheduled Sunday.
"What you don't want to do is get into a fight," Erwin said. "He has to be prepared, he has to be articulate, he has to be gubernatorial."
Given the stakes, Reid will almost certainly attempt to goad Sandoval into a fight Sunday.
On Thursday Reid released a plan to balance the state budget without raising taxes. He has criticized Sandoval for failing to propose a plan of his own, although Sandoval spokeswoman Mary-Sarah Kinner says one is in the works.
One problem for Reid, however, is that the two candidates are fairly similar in terms of policy rhetoric, despite the plans Reid's campaign has released, including a budget balancing plan on Thursday.
Each promises to balance the budget without a tax increase of any kind, a feat budget experts have said is unlikely.
Both candidates have also called for improving schools by reducing centralized bureaucracy and increasing flexibility and accountability for individual teachers and principals.
"There is only so much you can do if your claim is you aren't going to raise taxes," said David Damore, a political science professor at University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "Reid has to get people to change their mind about him, at this point that is tough to do."
Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.
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Wow, Marcus, well said.
I hope you're a local writer and/or journalist.
We are wise to Junior Reid and will vote for Sandoval. Now we must do the best thing for Nevada and vote out Senior Harry Reid!! NO MORE REIDS!!!
It is official, using the word extreme is the DNC'S new slogan to attack republicans this year. Are we all still in high school? Reid cannot stand on his own two feet when it comes to explaining to Nevada what he has done, as majority leader, that merits his re-election.
To Sen. Reid "its a nightmare"
DUMP REIDS
ODJ, in your reality the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus and the Great Pumpkin will solve all of America's problems. Except your's, after all not all miracles are possible. I love it when you liberals foam at the mouth and go off the deep end. Don't let those teabags hit you in the chin.
A lot of this has to do with personality over ideology. Sandoval is a dominant alpha male. Rory is the exact opposite. Many of the same people who vote for Harry will vote for Sandoval. Many of the same voters who are attracted to alpha males are the same type who easily get brainwashed by Harry Reid's negative TV ads against Sharron Angle. These voters, probably the majority, are devoid of ideology and are influenced by emotion and male dominance. Personally I trust non-charasmatic politicians like the Reid father and son over confident alpha males like Sandoval. Still there is no way I will vote for anyone as liberal as the Reid's. I might not vote for Sandoval either because I'm not sure if he is conservative enough. He might be the type to try to tax food like the Assembly leader RINO. Just because they have an (R) in front of their name doesn't mean they are conservative.
I always hang up on robo-calls about polls.
Get all the Reids out of Political arena.
Who wants any Reid in when they support child abuse for profits?
Well, it's not a good sign for democracy when one family has to provide marginally competent public servants for an entire state of shiftless paranoids, so it's creepy to think of a senator and governor trading stories at the same family picnic. On the other hand, it's hard to figure out how people haven't learned a lesson from watching rightwing republican government leave the state at or near the bottom of every measure of a healthy society. Rightwingers like us to believe that they are fiscally sensible, but they've demonstrated they live in a total economic fantasy, while we live in very real worthless houses and underpaying jobs. They're sincere about their crazy, sometimes violent beliefs, but they're just not smart enough to make things happen without creating human misery or killing someone. If Gibbons had dignity or a conscience, he'd off himself in his bunker at the end while loyal tea partiers sneaked vials of his frozen DNA to Brazil to clone monkeys that can read a speech, while Red Cross workers march into Carson City with emergency supplies for Nevada's ragged population. But of course, the aging fool will just ramble around golf courses and bars dropping his state pension on frozen drinks and lap dances. Good for him! But people seem to want to vote for more of the same--now, the political quack Sandoval who will quietly cash his check every month and scamper under an American flag every time someone asks if he's doing any work. Sandoval will won't do much, what the little he does will be damage. Reid at least seems like someone who'll punch his time card and has actual reasonable ideas. Strange, sad, stupid times we live in...