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Sandoval keeps large lead in governor race
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LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL/8NEWSNOW
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©2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Updated: Sep. 12, 2010 | 12:45 a.m.
Former federal judge Brian Sandoval is still cruising with a big lead in the race for governor of Nevada, but a new poll shows Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid is at least visible in the rear view mirror.
The Las Vegas Review-Journal/8NewsNow poll shows 52 percent of registered voters prefer Republican Sandoval compared with 36 percent who favor Democrat Reid.
The 16 percentage-point gap is daunting for Reid, but less so than the 22-point deficit to Sandoval a similar poll showed two weeks ago. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The website Real Clear Politics has a compilation of polls from several sources with an average margin of 19 percentage points in favor of Sandoval. This adds up to an Everest-like climb for Reid to overtake Sandoval in the days between now and the Nov. 2 election.
"He has a very difficult path to victory," GOP political consultant Ryan Erwin said of Reid's standing. "I don't think it is impossible, but it is getting there."
The biggest shift in favor of Reid since the last R-J/Channel 8 poll was a move by more Democrats to his side.
The latest poll shows 70 percent of Democrats now back Reid with 16 percent favoring Sandoval. Two weeks ago a similar poll showed just 58 percent of Democrats behind Reid and 21 percent picking Sandoval.
The increase in support from his fellow party members is good news for Reid, but it isn't nearly enough to suggest Sandoval has lost his advantage.
Independents favored Sandoval 58 percent to 27 percent, and registered voters in Clark County chose Sandoval, who lives in Reno, over Reid 48 percent to 40 percent.
"That's the bad news for him, the Clark number," said David Damore, a political science professor at University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "These are the people who know Rory Reid the best. To still be losing in the Democratic stronghold is troubling."
Political number-cruncher Nate Silver at The New York Times 538 political blog, who has studied all the public polls in the race, posted a report Labor Day weekend saying Sandoval had a 96.2 percent chance of winning.
Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the new survey, and said he doesn't see any significant shift.
"He's gained some support among Democrats ... but he is still down double digits," Coker said of Reid.
Reid's polling problems are not for lack of effort. The son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., is well connected in Democratic circles. He had already raised millions of dollars in campaign contributions before Sandoval entered the race. Next week, he will host former President Bill Clinton for a rally at the Four Seasons in Mandalay Bay.
Reid has also sought to establish himself as the candidate of substance in the race, releasing bound, glossy plans on how to fix everything from the schools to the state's economy.
In addition, he's paid for a steady stream of negative attacks on Sandoval, the latest being a web ad that highlights a 1994 newspaper article in which Sandoval said he opposed using public money for vouchers to allow kids to attend private schools.
During the race for governor, Sandoval has repeatedly said he is in favor of such vouchers, and even included them as part of his education plan.
On Friday, Sandoval said Nevada schools have deteriorated since 1994, necessitating more drastic measures such as vouchers.
"Tinkering with the system just won't work," he said. "Ending teacher tenure, stopping social promotion, instituting merit pay and giving parents complete freedom of choice as to the school their child attends will shake up the system."
Whether Sandoval's shifting views on education will matter remains to be seen. The new poll showed 71 percent of respondents think Nevada's lousy economy is the No. 1 issue facing the state. Education was a distant second, with just 11 percent saying it is the top issue.
But Reid's campaign has already hitched its wagon to education as a potential winning issue.
Late last month Reid also promised more criticism of Sandoval in September in an effort to close the gap, although it has yet to materialize.
Among Reid's challenges is that Sandoval is well regarded among the electorate, having served as a federal judge, attorney general, gaming commission chairman and assemblyman.
"He is not extreme in any way," Erwin said. "Sandoval is going to be a very, very difficult guy to make an attack stick on."
The latest survey results from Mason-Dixon show 51 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of Sandoval, 21 percent see him unfavorably and 25 percent are neutral.
For Reid, just 32 percent view him favorably, 45 percent view him unfavorably and 20 percent are neutral.
The view from inside the Reid campaign isn't as dire as the new poll results would suggest.
An internal campaign poll taken Aug. 27-Sept. 1 shows a 7 percentage-point gap, with Reid getting 39 percent and Sandoval 46.
"There are several polls that show Rory within single digits of Brian Sandoval," said campaign spokesman Mike Trask.
If Sandoval's campaign is worried about Reid's internal poll results, the worry does not show. Sandoval has yet to go on statewide television or engage any major lines of attack , two clear signals the campaign thinks the lead is safe, at least for now.
Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.
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To hell with the REIDS who are trying to establish a dynasty in Nevada political arena.
Harry the father is just a dumb coattail of OBAMANURE
Harry the son is a moron who looks like a dead corpse
AND now both of them are trying to create the Holy Spi......REIDS !
VOTE LATINO! VOTE FOR SANDOVAL!
Go Sandoval go ! Beat the hell out ouf Rory Reid who along with his damn father are trying to establish a dynasty in Nevada political arena. LET'S GET RID OF ALL REIDS
Professor Greendale (see I can make up funny names too):
You may be a professor (at a community college in Las Vegas, but still), but your attack against Dr. Heck proves that you are nothing more than an ideologue and a partisan hack. Dr. Heck has done far more for this country than you. With that in mind, your criticism of Sandoval carries little weight. Why can't you just be honest and say that you are voting for Reid because you don't want to take a pay cut? For some reason, you don't think that you have to sacrifice like everyone else in this state. Of course, if a person in the private sector were to vote for his or her pocketbook in like manner, you and your ilk would bemoan the selfishness.
I hope Brian wins.
Why is it that even on a small, insignificant, local paper board like this; the folks leaning Democratic/Liberal seem thoughtful, idea-driven and informed and the Republican/Conservatives seem uninformed, unintelligent and sarcastic?
As an Independent for 30+ years let me just say, it's about the candidates ideas, their integrity and their intelligence- not their politics or their money etc...VOTE FOR whom you feel will best lead the/our state to a better place for the working man, the middle-class, our children and our environment- that's it!
Is this a surprise? Finally people realize that "Reid = Mafioso." What are this man's qualifications, other than his dad and his dad's mouth?
If the Reid dynasty is not crushed, the arrogance will grow and we are doomed.
Gramps & Lawyer, I probably have more education than both of you sweat-licking, single-DNA, creatures. I don't want my brain cut away until I am a sheeple Republitard. I can think and see the truth, not just swallow the BS of Faux News. Sad that the single DNAs have the right to vote. Does your mommy hold your hand and help you press the screen. Of course she wipes off most of the drool first, I expect.
This state has had two great democratic governors in the time I have lived here, Richard Bryan and Bob Miller. But Rory is another liberal big government, high taxes, spender, just like Daddy.
For Nevada's sake, I hope enough people wake up by election day to see that Brian Sandoval long ago sold his soul to a party crazy enough to want Sharron Mangle in the Senate and Joe Heckuvajobbrownie in the House. I really wish the Republican party were a serious entity, and I think Sandoval might even once have been worthy of a serious party, but instead, he and his fellow Republicans engage in hateful, anti-American thought and rhetoric, and that is truly sad.