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SHERMAN FREDERICK: Not so wild about Harry

Is Nevada turning on its lion in the winter?

The political headline of last week, "Reid's popularity falls among Nevadans," wasn't all that surprising. Nevada's never been particularly wild about Harry Reid. But he's always managed to cobble enough of a constituency to ward off opponents, even if by the narrowest of margins.

The surprise was in the degree of voter disenchantment. The poll commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal showed Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's unfavorable rating had moved past the 50 percent mark -- 51 percent, to be precise. His favorable rating was 32 percent, 2 points lower than embattled, lame duck President George W. Bush.

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  • As bad as the ratings were, you could see it coming.

    In fact, I did. In a column published May 21, 2006, I wrote that if Sen. Reid continued to kowtow the liberal wing of his party, "Nevada voters will march to the polls and replace (him), thus ending one of the longer, more powerful political runs in state history."

    That prediction 17 months ago was clearly on the money in light of last week's Review-Journal poll conducted by Brad Coker, a nationally known pollster with an impeccable track record over 20 years and, equally important, tied neither to the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party.

    Some local writers who fancy themselves political gurus issued knee-jerk challenges of the poll. They didn't see it coming; therefore, it must be the result of a sampling error or some other pollster screw-up.

    There's an egocentric homer analysis for you.

    The more correct view on these new numbers is that they signal Reid, who has always been on the edge of trouble with Nevada's electorate, may now be in big trouble. If Sen. Reid can't find his way back into the good graces of Nevadans, this could be his last term.

    And that's a big story.

    Let me spell out Harry's problem. No one can win a statewide race in Nevada on a platform that appears anti-military, anti-family, anti-marriage, anti-religion, anti-free speech, pro-illegal immigration, pro-abortion, and pro-taxation. While Harry isn't all of that personally, he clearly projects elements of them all when he's doing the bidding of his party on the national stage.

    (It also doesn't help Harry's numbers when he foolishly attacks Rush Limbaugh, only to have the conservative radio talk show host lash back in a brutally effective rebuttal for the entire nation to hear.)

    Tom Daschle knows what I'm talking about. He was Harry's predecessor in the Senate. He, like Reid does now, carried the liberal banner of his national party and slowly but surely his support eroded in his conservative home state of South Dakota. Then one day he woke up with big negatives and the next day he was unelected.

    Whether you buy into the 51 percent number as the precise level of Nevada dissatisfaction with Reid or not, it's crystal clear the Daschle effect is in play with Reid. And that means his next race may be the political fight of his life.

    While Harry demonstrated resiliency in past races, let's not forget he's no spring chicken anymore. He was born in 1939, just about the time golf moved from hickory shafted clubs to steel. He's already suffered one stroke, and most folks who see him regularly say he looks weary. Of course, we're all getting older, so we ought not to hold that against him.

    It's just to point out that getting old is not for sissies. Katharine Hepburn said that.

    For politicians, the one thing worse than getting old is not death. It's getting a midterm unfavorable rating of 51 percent. I said that.

    You can bet if that number doesn't improve, he will draw a quality, younger opponent, well-funded and perfectly willing to engage him door-to-door up and down the state, from Laughlin to Winnemucca and Gardnerville to Mesquite.

    The good news for Reid is there's about three years before he's up for re-election. That's still a lot of time for this lion in the winter.

    Nevertheless, you'd have to be the dumbest of all asses to close your eyes and pretend this is a sampling or methodology error. I promise you that's not how Reid's inner circle views it. They take it seriously because they know nobody carries a high unfavorable number into an election and reasonably expects to survive.

    So I look for Harry to tone down the liberal rhetoric, shut up about Limbaugh, and do all he can locally to turn these negative numbers around. The Las Vegas Sun will do its part by providing glowing coverage of his exploits. Then, in about 12 to 18 months, he'll perform an internal re-election reality check.

    If his numbers are as bad then as they are today, he'll retire. Maybe take a cushy job with President Hillary Clinton's administration.

    You can see it coming.

    Sherman Frederick is publisher of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and president of Stephens Media. Readers may write him at sfrederick@reviewjournal.com.



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    Dan wrote on November 22, 2007 07:56 AM: If center-right Reid would just govern from the center-left, as we citizens of Nevada have told him time and time again, instead of capitulating to Bush and McConnell and the far-right all the time, his approval ratings would be sky-high.

    Instead, he talks tough, then gives up, on health care, on the worst foreign policy decision in decades (aka Iraq), on far right judges, on everything, which causes the far right to laugh at his ineffectiveness, and causes the rest of Nevada and the country to wonder why they put him in power in the first place.

    If Reid would just run the senate like 75% of Nevada and the United States want him to, by getting SCHIP passed, by getting out of Iraq, by confronting the most despised administration in the history of this country, then Reid would be able to keep his seat with ease in 2010.

    If Reid continues to bow down to the far right whenever they use mean words, then he will lose in 2010, and justifiably so.


    Mayra wrote on November 21, 2007 01:10 PM: At one time I thought I had some respect for Senator Reid, however, he sure has destroyed any respect I might have had for him.

    I will not miss him and will spend whatever time and resources I have available to work with anyone running against him.


    Mike... wrote on November 18, 2007 09:32 AM: One could only hope that when Happy-Harry leaves politics, he takes his annoying son Rory with him.

    And alas Las Vegas/Nevada will finally be free of the liberal Reid dynasty once and for all!


    Yolanda wrote on November 07, 2007 02:40 PM: From today's article in D.C. publication "The Hill":

    For seven years, Americans outside Washington observed Bush and his Republican allies break every single promise they ever made to the American people.

    They haven’t captured Osama bin Laden, dead or alive. They haven’t accomplished our mission in Iraq. They haven’t guaranteed insurance for millions of poor children. They haven’t “defend[ed] the Constitution of the United States” from attacks on our civil liberties.

    Meanwhile, Bush and his svengali Karl Rove consistently achieved new heights of hyperpartisanship — always quicker to demonize the opposition than to compromise. So in 2006, the nation struck back with a resounding message — unitary Republican control was no longer acceptable. A wave of new Democrats was elected to oppose the Bush Republican agenda. House Democrats won the national vote by a solid 54-46, while Senate Dems crushed their Republican rivals, 54-42.

    But D.C. is a funny place. No one seems to have gotten that resounding message, certainly not Bush and the new Republican minority. More surprisingly, Democrats also failed to get the message. On issue after issue, the Democratic norm has been to capitulate to the slightest pressure from the GOP. And while the public has meted record-low approval ratings for this Congress in response, the lesson apparently remains unlearned.

    Whether it’s Iraq funding or the Michael Mukasey confirmation, Democrats continue to give away the store without receiving any concessions in return. It’s a one-way street in a town that has ceded Article I of the Constitution for a unitary, non-compromising executive. The public is sick of this administration’s betrayals. Why aren’t Democrats?


    Yolanda wrote on November 06, 2007 01:40 PM: marie,

    When you have a chance, how about some, you know, facts, instead of all of the insults and invective? That's all that is left for the remaining 24% dead-enders, hatred and vitriol, insults and anger. You know, facts, the things you and all of your alter-egos seem to be allergic to?

    It's time to get out of the way while we fix the nation you broke over the past 7+ years.

    Here is a fact, your boy Bush is now the most unpopular president of all time! Took him long enough, but he finally accomplished something. Even more unpopular than Nixon the week before he was impeached, now that is an accomplishment.

    http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20071106/a_iranpoll06.art.htm

    The times are a-changing, and soon the last 7+ years of corruption and incompetence will be dealt with and Americans can again be proud of our government.

    I look forward to further scintillating debate with you, it sure is fun to be on the side of 75% of America.


    Mari K wrote on November 06, 2007 12:39 PM: You sure are simple minded, aren't you? Like I agree with you about anything you say (nutcase). You just make things up as you go along.
    You keep addresseing me as Marie, like I said, simple minded. I'm not even going to read any more of you inane posts. Just go ahead and keep talking to yourself. Have fun.


    Yolanda wrote on November 06, 2007 09:29 AM: Bush wins!

    http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20071106/a_iranpoll06.art.htm

    Bush finally beats Nixon’s disapproval ratings.

    Sixty-four percent of Americans disapprove of the job President Bush is doing, and for “the first time in the history of the Gallup Poll, 50% say they ’strongly disapprove’ of the president. Richard Nixon had reached the previous high, 48%, just before an impeachment inquiry was launched in 1974.”


    Yolanda wrote on November 06, 2007 06:24 AM: marie,

    Thankyou for agreeing with me that the military does not support the war in Iraq or this president. I am gratified that you and I can agree.

    As far as Reid, there has been lengthy discussion on this topic, if you go to the bottom of this page on the lefthand side and click the link in blue called "Read all Comments", you will see the discussion. Basically, the American people put the Dems into power in 2006 with an overwhelming mandate to confront this most corrupt and incompetent administration. Because Reid and the Dems continue to capitulate to Mr. 24%, the American people do not respect him.

    If Mr. Reid and the Dems wake up and start to confront Bush and his rubber stamp party on the destruction of the constitution, and on torture, and on the war, and on healthcare for children, and on stem cell research, and on the rampant corruption in his administration, and on politicizing the justice department, then Reid's approval ratings will jump again.

    If he continues to capitulate, then he will lose his position as Majority Leader in 2008, and may very well lose his seat in 2010.

    The position of the American people has never been more clear. The Republican brand has never been more toxic. If Reid does not wake up and start confronting them and acting on behalf of the American people then he very well deserves to lose his seat.


    Mari K wrote on November 05, 2007 11:35 AM: Yo - like I said, you just want to have a discussion with yourself. This posting has to do with Harry Reid, not who the military supports for president. You really make no point at all. Who are you to speak for the entire military?
    By the way, I am not Marie. You are very narrow minded.


    Yolanda wrote on November 02, 2007 12:29 PM: marie,

    The point is that the military personnel are supporting the Democrats with their votes, their voices and their dollars. The point is that the men and women in the U.S. armed forces now, more than ever before, are agreeing with and supporting Democrats instead of Publicans.

    The point is that only people like yourself and the constantly shrinking group of 24% dead enders continue to support Bush and the GOP.

    Nearly every statistic available shows this to be the case, which is why it makes complete sense that people like you refuse to use statistics: you are allergic to the facts and the truth.


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