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EDITORIAL: 'Economically feasible'?

Global warming scare-mongers need a dose of reality

Enough with the doomsday proselytizing of the Church of Global Warming. So much time and effort has been spent selling the idea that our reliance on fossil fuels is causing a planetary catastrophe that no one is asking the really important questions: If the world goes cold turkey on oil and coal, will anything change, and how much will it cost?

Demand for energy will only rise in the decades and centuries ahead, so the resources needed to power our automobiles (even ones that run on batteries) and our air-conditioners in a warmer future has to come from somewhere. Replacing every internal-combustion engine, every oil refinery and every coal-fired power plant with energy sources that do not emit carbon would cost trillions of dollars.


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  • That's a politically impossible price tag, especially for nothing more than a theory that higher temperatures might do more harm than good.

    Contrary to what most global warming zealots claim, costs are not irrelevant -- not when limited resources could be used to immediately benefit humanity in ways with much more scientific certainty. And not when scientists admit that dismantling entire economies would bring little benefit in the realm of climate change.

    Papers recently published in the journals Geophysical Research Letters and Global Biogeochemical Cycles claim the world would have to stop emitting carbon altogether within a few decades to rein in rising temperatures. That's not a misprint -- no carbon emissions anywhere before the middle of this century. Note to the world's jet-setting celebrity environmentalists: Such a mandate would ground airplanes.

    "In the end, this is a value judgment, it's not a scientific question," University of Washington philosophy professor Steve Gardiner, who studies climate change, told The Washington Post. Creating a carbon-free society "appears to be technically feasible. The question of whether it's politically feasible or economically feasible is a separate question."

    Yet most of the world's political elites continue to pitch expensive benchmarks that, according to this research, will do nothing. A U.S. Senate proposal seeks to reduce American emissions by 70 percent within 40 years. Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama want an 80 percent cut by 2050; Republican John McCain wants a 60 percent reduction. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wants the First World to cut emissions by between 80 and 95 percent, while allowances for China, India and other developing nations would tolerate a global emissions cut of no less than 50 percent by 2050.

    Are the greens demanding that 3,000 nuclear power plants be built around the world within 20 years to meet their ambitious goals? No, they're demanding global reliance on solar, wind and geothermal power, technologies that, by themselves, can't come close to meeting the world's energy needs.

    Meanwhile, the movement to get governments to tackle calamities that have cost-effective solutions isn't gaining much traction. Danish political scientist and author Bjorn Lomborg has pointed out that for a fraction of the money Al Gore wants to spend eliminating carbon emissions, the world could save hundreds of millions of lives over the next century eradicating malaria and HIV/AIDS; providing the entire world with a reliable, clean supply of potable water; and eliminating malnutrition through the free trade of agricultural products.

    That radical environmentalists oppose allowing Earth's human population to continue to grow says a lot about their agenda here.

    In the long run, selling the public on panic won't do anyone any good. Alarmists are going to have to pitch realistic solutions, with realistic costs, as well.

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    Don Evans wrote on March 15, 2008 01:11 PM: I hear a lot of circuitous logic from the libertarian crowd.

    If there is an infinite amount of oil left (an assertion that defies logic simply based upon where oil comes from) then PROVE it. Oil is a finite resource, and one that is prone to price manipulation based upon this characteristic. Non-finite fuels, by their definition, are not. How does this not make sense?

    Please tell me, moreover, how it makes sense to chain our economy to a resource that is prone to such price swings, and the manipulations of petty dictators and those who hate what the U.S. stands for.

    For the longest time, those who have dared to question the logic of a finite fuel based economy have been labeled just short of unpatriotic; after all, driving that H2 with the 24" rims and fuzzy dice is your natural right as an Americanan...and it stimulates the economy. And yet the majority of oil reserves are held by countries in the middle east and Venezuela..who both wish we were dead. Now that China is whipping our rear ends, economically, by manufacgturing our own products and selling them back to us (as well as stealing our intellectual property), they're in the oil bidding game also, bidding the price of gas up to 4.00 a gallon. Lovely.

    Now I ask you, who's unpatriotic? Those who question the "conventional wisdom", or those who endorse selling our country to the highest, and most dubious, bidders?


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    tom wrote on March 14, 2008 05:29 PM: anybody that went through the arab oil embargo can read these posts and see that the exact same thing was being said then.....the sky is falling,we're almost out of oil,obscene profits.blah.blah.blah.the doomsday forecasts didn't happen then either.......


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    tim wrote on March 14, 2008 04:14 PM: sounds like the global warming crowd is getting all touchy,feely.glad you folks are not the raving lunatics that scream we are going to boil to death, that was getting old.now we have a new boogy man,its there is no oil left,lets use that to raise prices,sound about right? hows this,the sky is falling!believe half of what you read,ever hear that one? now let all the armchair scientist attack,cant wait to hear you all,see ya.


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    Don Evans wrote on March 14, 2008 02:22 PM: "Douglas"

    I agree, profit is not, in and of itself, evil. We should lay blame where it belongs; the reliance of our economy on the supply and demand curves of a finite resource, in large part owned by countries that despise us.

    I think you make an excellent case for alternative energy. Price manipulation of the variable inputs necessary for our current energy generation methods is one of many excellent reason for transitioning to non-finite energy sources.

    Alternative, non-finite sources, moreover, will become more affordable, reliable, and efficient as demand increases. Looking at 4.00 a gallon gasoline by the summmer, with or without a federal tax, should be just the motivation people need...That and Hugo Chavez.

    In short, if we're only through one twelfth of the world's oil supplies, as another poster asserts, imagine what we'll be paying when we burn through another trillion gallons..and who we'll be making rich through our oil purchases.

    We should be looking to develop non-finite energy as a means of making energy generation a fixed cost endeavor, or as close as is possible. That, and to sell the technology to the economies we currently admire, such as China, and put people like Hugo Chavez out of business.


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    Willard Roker wrote on March 14, 2008 02:14 PM: Douglas I think you might need a better source than the lvrj message boards. I can find no such statistics in the real world. All I find is talk of record profits.

    Jon I can support all of those things as well. We just need to start thinking sustainable development instead of planned obsolescence.


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    Jon H. wrote on March 14, 2008 12:58 PM: Mr. Roker,

    I agree with your basic argument.

    My point is, if we are going to spend a trillions of dollars on something, lets spend it on something that we need, not something that we think we ought to do. Put another way, lets spend our money on things that have a high probability of making life better on earth, for all life. Spending money accidentally on something that ends up being counter productive to the goal of improving life, would be worse than breaking panes of glass.

    Only history will validate the Models predictions of Global Warming theories. As we all know we have passionate people on both sides of the fence on that issue, each calling the others members of the flat world club. Not very constructive. The theories are possible, but they fall well short of being certain.

    If we attempt as a human civilization to reduce our carbon output from fuels in the time frame and in the amounts that have been suggested in these studies, there can be no doubt that life on earth for us humans are going to get very Spartan or worse.

    In the past, I have advocated the concepts of New Urbanism, to reduce the transportation requirements for as many people as we possibly can.

    I have also supported very safe nuclear reactor designs, such as the gas cooled pebble bed nuclear reactors.

    I would support the use of the new generation of electric cars as in the next generation GM models.

    I would support the aggressive elimination of Mercury from all stake emissions.

    I would support anything on the table that was beneficial to life on earth.


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    douglas wrote on March 14, 2008 12:46 PM: the continuing dishonest, spin about the oil companies' profits is getting tiresome.

    again and again, the oil companies, leastwise that exxon example, earns the smallest "return on investment" of the dow jones industrials. leastwise those are the numbers revealed a couple of times in lvrj message board threads.

    of course the honest complainers have assailed those 29 other companies which have higher profits. not!

    repetition of shallow, party hack crafted propaganda indicates the merit of those posts. sounds like the mainland chinese gubmit changing traditional folk song lyrics to be politically in line with revolutionary thought. if the "new" lyrics are sung enough, perhaps the proletariat will believe them.

    when u.s. consumers and those even hungrier consumers in newly industrialized countries decrease demand, crude oil auction prices *may* decline. but wise producers will simple reduce output to maintain prices, as do diamond and gold producers. worse is that the promised "progressive" agenda to drive up consumer energy costs will eliminate any conservation savings.

    the cheese will really bind if captain nemo kennedy and hapless harry reid get their proposed 50 cent or one dollar a gallon, federal gasoline tax surcharge passed. who will the communists blame for that higher pump price ? the 5 or 10 cent a gallon margin of gas station/retailers ?


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    Willard Roker wrote on March 14, 2008 11:35 AM: Jon H, Interesting parable though I think it is more fitting to Bushes reasoning for Iraq than it is about in bracing new technology.

    I’m not talking about destruction of property being justified, I’m talking about replacing the old manufacturing jobs that have gone away with new jobs in the technology of tomorrow. Who will pay for it? Whoever wants to be the big players in the new market.

    The oil companies are bleeding us for every penny they can because they know change is on the way and they are getting while the getting is good. Enough is enough, it is time to in brace new technologies and create new opportunities instead of just continuing to make the old rich, richer.


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    Don Evans wrote on March 14, 2008 10:28 AM: I agree that emissions standards should be held the same for every country, not just the U.S.

    The irony is that China is currently seeking technologies to clean its polluted environment. After all, it has born the environmental cost of becoming the outsourced manufacturing center of the U.S., more than most countries. China's need, if held to the same emissions standards as the U.S., would benefit the U.S.; especially if we were the country providing this technology. How would it feel to flip the economic tables on China and India?

    I do believe that we need to transition to non-finite fuels. This transition would both help to reduce emissions, and move us from the variable energy costs that come with basing our economy on a finite resource (witness oil and gas prices currently). This move may, or may not, include building nuclear facilities as a means of bridging the gap between fossil fuel economy and an alternative fuel economy.

    The necessary decisions, however, should be based upon rational and detailed analysis of a number of factors, however, not just profitability.

    Does this make me a "green"? No. I, like most, don't fit within the moniker; which is used as a means of affecting profitable polarization.

    By all means, let's stop using amusing rhetoric tags (and schills), and start coming up with some compromises and/or answers. The fact is, the movement to non-finite fuels going to happen, whether or not those whose profitability depends on fossil/finite fuels want it or not.

    Why don't we start the discussion by posting the link to that Wall Street journal article and, more importantly, the scientific study that supports the dubious assertion that we've only used one twelfth the world's oil reserves.


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    BS from the RJ wrote on March 14, 2008 10:14 AM: That flat earth society of the RJ once again offers NO SOLUTIONS.

    The overwhelming majority of competent, mainstream scientist claim the tipping point is coming soon.

    If someone held a gun to your head and said they would kill you unless you gave them one million dollars, would you say no? Would you do everything you could to generate that one million? Yes.

    The problem with the naysayers is that the worst is yet to come and because virtually things have not changed dramatically for them, they feel it is not a threat. How's that water level in Lake Mead? Is that due to human expansion in the SW? Bammo, right there is a good example of how humans effect the environment...no put that on a global level.


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