Home subscribe manage Las Vegas Review-Journal
  Jobs Cars Homes Shopping Travel Weddings Golf Best of Las Vegas Photo   Search:

RECENT EDITIONS
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue

Opinion


ERIN NEFF: True blue Nevada

It's far too soon to predict what might happen here in four months, when the state's voters will help choose the next president. But the continued gains by Democrats in voter registrations bode exceptionally well for Barack Obama in Nevada.

The Obama campaign's announcement Monday that the junior senator from Illinois will accept his party's presidential nomination Aug. 28 at Denver's Invesco Field at Mile High, with 75,000 people in attendance, is another sign of the bulk and weight of his movement.

Newsvine Digg Fark Technorati reddit StumbleUpon del.icio.us Slashdot Propeller Mixx Furl Twitter MySpace Facebook Google Bookmarks Yahoo! Bookmarks Windows Live Favorites Ask MyStuff myAOL Favorites

Most Popular Stories
  • LETTERS: Professor needs to get with the program
  • LETTERS: Washington loves rewarding failure
  • FROM OUR READERS: We can't do worse than country's current leadership
  • LETTERS: Trickle-down economics is dead
  • EDITORIAL: Tip jar
  • VIN SUPRYNOWICZ: Shall we save the economy ... or the government?
  • LETTERS: Don't expect district to cut waste
  • EDITORIAL: Sending the right message
  • EDITORIAL: A tiny bit of good news?
  • EDITORIAL: 'A cautionary tale'



  • George W. Bush had already pushed ahead with the Yucca Mountain Project and entered our troops into a no-win situation in Iraq when Nevadans supported his re-election four years ago. But something is happening this year. In a state where the past two presidential elections have gone to the Republican nominee by less than 3 percent, it's more than notable that Democrats now have a 5 percent edge in registered voters.

    CNN's election map has Nevada colored yellow, a hue set by their so-called "best political team on television" to tease another down-to-the-wire election that will suck in the viewers. That designation belies the real truth on the ground here.

    If you go by current polls in each of the 50 states, Obama has more than enough in his column to sail past the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. The heart of the campaign really hasn't started beating, but unlike four years ago, when Democrat John Kerry was swiftboated into oblivion among his own base, Obama has already survived preachergate, bittergate, patriotismgate and his own skin color to lead the race.

    Democrats are renowned for stealing defeat from the jaws of victory, but their continued growth in registered voters will help offset even a self-inflicted wound that costs them 2 to 3 percent of independent voters.

    The past two presidential votes in Nevada were decided by 21,000 votes. If Republican John McCain were to equal Bush's turnout in the rurals here (and that will be difficult given the problem social conservatives have with the Arizona senator), Democrats could easily overcome that 21,000.

    In the past, the model for Democrats running statewide in Nevada was to win Clark County by enough to withstand sure-fire losses everywhere else. But Clark isn't the only Democratic county anymore. Mineral County now has more Democrats than Republicans, and Washoe County, the state's second-largest and home to Reno -- is perilously close to turning blue. The difference between Republicans and Democrats in the 206,000-voter county is less than 6,000.

    Even White Pine County, with its teeny voter rolls, will flip if Democrats can register 45 more people than the GOP does before Election Day. Nye County is also evening out.

    Good luck with that rural "base," Sen. McCain.

    The real battle will be for the nonpartisans in the middle.

    The 3rd Congressional District, where Democrats now lead in registration by 24,000 voters, has a whopping 56,000 independents.

    Incumbent GOP Rep. Jon Porter may not have enough moderate fuel in the tank to withstand the changing demographics in his district and a November challenge from state Sen. Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas. Porter has raised $210,000 from oil and gas companies at a time when Southern Nevadans are plunking down $4.25 a gallon for petrol. And despite moving to the middle on just about everything, Porter also voted against cutting tax breaks for big energy companies on a renewable energy bill.

    Voters may have seen Republican Jim Gibbons as the lesser of two evils in the 2006 gubernatorial race against Titus, but the governor's handling of personal and public affairs has left many voters wondering why they didn't go with the Democrat.

    I'm sure it happens to her all the time, but the day after the Legislature's recent special session ended, I was behind Titus in the security line at Reno-Tahoe International Airport. The woman checking her ID told Titus, "I sure wish you would have won." The voter registration gains by Democrats in the 3rd Congressional District may put those words into the mouths of Porter's supporters this November.

    Winning the registration game is only half of the battle. Keeping the voters and turning them out on Election Day is just as important.

    For Democrats trying to win back control of the state Senate, the two key districts, 5 and 6, turned blue in February and haven't looked back. In the Assembly, Democratic voter gains give Democrats a real chance to add one seat, in District 5. One seat gives Speaker Barbara Buckley a veto-proof supermajority.

    Who knows what will happen in the state Senate? But for now, Nevada is about as blue as it can get.

    Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.



    Leave Your Comment 26 Reader Comments
    Terms & Conditions
    The following comments are provided by readers and are the sole responsiblity of the authors. The reviewjournal.com does not review comments before publication nor guarantee their accuracy. By publishing a comment here you agree to abide by the comment policy. If you see a comment that violates the policy, please notify the web editor.

    Some comments may not display immediately due to an automatic filter. These comments will be reviewed within 48 hours. Please do not submit a comment more than once.
    Current Word Count:

    benighse wrote on July 14, 2008 05:04 PM: MAYBE MCCAIN WILL SELECT GOVN'R GIBBONS FOR HIS VP===BETTER HIS PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH THEN OURS!!


    Johnathan L. Abbinett wrote on July 12, 2008 09:47 PM: I'm a very independent Democrat and, on rare occasion, when the Republican was clearly the better candidate (or the Democratic Party was running a candidate of questionable character or competence), I have voted "R" a few times in my life...

    ...but, NOT this cycle!

    Elections are about choices, and this cycle the choice is simple - you are eiher smart enough to vote "D" or you are a "T" - "traitor"!

    For forty years we've listened to the lies from the Republican party - and the Republicans have brought the world to brink of environmental destruction, they've destroyed generations of good will and trust internationally, and they have idiotically played right into the hands of the terrorists who told us they intended to bankrupt the U.S. much as the U.S. bankrupted the Soviet Union - how bad do things have to get to vote the radical, right-wing, neo-con, nutcase Republicans out of office and into the political desert for forty years?

    It is our duty to register and vote smart - and help GOTV (Get Out The Vote) - so, if you're not talking to your friends, family and neighbors about politics - then, you are part of the problem and part of how and why we got into this desperate mess!

    This is a historical year - and it is a chance for everyone who has been sitting on their tails, to put down the remote control, get up, get out the door and vounteer! We need lots of people to get on the telephone, walk YOUR neighborhood, ward, precinct, State Assembly and Senate District and Congressional District - it's time to do YOUR duty and get in the fight!

    Democracy is not a spectator sport - and it isn't American Idol!

    Get Out The Vote!


    Suzie McKay wrote on July 08, 2008 09:07 PM: Our economy is in shreds, our health care system is broken and not affordable for anyone who has a chronic illness, we are contemplating the possibly irretrievable destruction of our environment, our international status is in the toilet, and our state is run by the "Luv Guv". If we can combat the ignorance of posters like Sam, who STILL believe Senator Obama is a Muslim despite clear evidence to the contrary, we may have a chance to repair these issues and provide a better country for ourselves and our posterity. As a former Republican, I am ashamed we ended up in this position. I urge others like me to switch their party and start working for the changes we so desperately need. Barack Obama has and will continue to involve the American people in his platform. How can any American not approve of having the voice in our government that our founding fathers meant for us to have?


    Eric wrote on July 08, 2008 08:50 PM: I want to raise gas prices with apunishment tax on gas. I want a payroll tax hike. I want to tax the heck out of my employer because he makes more than I do. I want, I want but I think others should work hard then be given a hard work tax which would pay for my own lack of drive to do anything for my self. This is the american way. Only problem is figuring out which candidate will give me all of the above.
    Torn in Vegas baby


    sam wrote on July 08, 2008 07:27 PM: McCain doesn't have to come to Nevada.He will win by a landslide.Obana hates white people and America acording to revernd Wrght.he is a musslem.how could anyone vote for someone with those feelings


    John F wrote on July 08, 2008 06:19 PM: Non-partisans may say they're going to vote for Obama, but people say a lot of things.

    Remember four years ago in Ohio? People leaving the polls said they voted for Kerry by about 55% - 45%. If you'll recall, Bush carried the state.

    What people are saying now doesn't mean anything. What they do in November is all that matters. I'm betting that people actually vote for the old, safe white guy.


    James wrote on July 08, 2008 01:34 PM: The GOP got hammered in the '06 elections, losing twenty-nine(29) House seats while Dems lost exactly zero(0). Plus the GOP lost five(5) Senate seats.

    But guess what? Those were the good ol' days for Republicans. This time around we'll put a knife through the heart of those losers and send them into the political wilderness for forty years.

    That's what happens when the voter get pissed. America has had enough of do-nothing empty suits ruining our government. We're throwin' the bums out!


    douglas wrote on July 08, 2008 01:08 PM: were it not for the continuing, repeatedly promised stalling by hapless harry reid, by now many more nuclear, coal, and crude projects would be underway. instead that oaf has vowed to spend whatever taxpayer funds necessary to compel greater reliance on imported energy.

    how this man and his two cronies, the "honorable" captain nemo kennedy and the insect pelosi must despise legal american citizen/taxpayer/energy consumers.

    and by now, state officials would have contrived a method of levying some toll on yucca mountain deposits. instead, again, the "progressives" would propel americans into a third world economy.

    as to federal expenditures, one might notice that the vastly greatest percentage is spent on federal giveaway programs. the "progressives" have continually promised to add more such programs. that hapless harry reid and his handlers would bless the tens of millions of infiltrators/saboteurs/parasites, granting them free access to legal taxpayer funded programs, proves his hatred for legal citizens.

    we have enough politcial enemies worldwide who hate this country because of it's liberal agenda. do we need to pay one to be a senator ?


    Brian wrote on July 08, 2008 12:29 PM: Don't simply vote democrat or republican. Cast your vote for the best person for the job.

    We should all be independents.


    Zeke wrote on July 08, 2008 12:28 PM: The GOP is in big trouble. Nationally and especially here in Nevada.
    The dem numbers have grown EVERY month since the Caucus and now stand +6% Dem.
    More importantly, non partisans are MUCH more likely to vote for Obama, and since THEY are the ones that decide nearly every election in the US, this game is very lopsided.

    Add on the fact that McCain is horribly uncharismatic and isn't even CLOSE to being Wingnut-enough to gain the money and support of the GOP Nevada base.

    Furthermore there is NO McCain presence in Washoe County. None. No Grassroots. No nothing.
    Obama has a dozen people ion the groud RIGHT NOW and has events nearly everyday. It is really overkill if ya ask me.

    If you think McCain really ha a chance, you are not paying attention. At All.


    Read All Comments