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FEDERAL HOUSING RESCUE: Has valley market hit bottom?

Law's new, temporary provisions should halt foreclosures, stabilize prices and start a wave of buying

By any measure, we are experiencing the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression. In Las Vegas, one housing price index is down 29 percent from its peak in August 2006. Foreclosures are rampant, new home sales are in the tank and consumer confidence has fallen to historic lows.

Our experience is not unique. Real estate markets across the country are suffering from the same ailments, in some cases much worse than us. As a result, President Bush on Wednesday signed into law a housing rescue package intended to stabilize the market and shore up the finances of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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  • Now the speculation is focused on whether the approval of this rescue package establishes the long-sought market bottom -- the perfect time to buy.

    The Housing and Economic Recovery Act tackles the problem with three major components designed to quickly stabilize the market: a mechanism whereby a distressed homeowner can avoid foreclosure while reducing and refinancing an existing mortgage under attractive terms; a limited-time $7,500 tax credit for first-time home buyers; and a financial backstop for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that effectively guarantees their survival while providing a reliable source for future mortgage financing.

    The foreclosure bailout is a potential boon to lenders and homeowners. Under the program, financially distressed homeowners have the opportunity to reduce their mortgages to 90 percent of their home's current appraised value. The new mortgage will be a 30-year fixed FHA loan at the prevailing interest rate, currently 6.75 percent. In exchange for this refinancing, the homeowner agrees to share a substantial portion of any future appreciation with the original lender and the FHA.

    Now the homeowner has two choices: suffer a foreclosure and all the damage that comes with it, or instead accept a lower payment and share future appreciation. The choice seems obvious.

    But what about current lenders? They must consent to the refinancing, and why would they do that?

    Because they will save a lot of time and money. Here's how it works for them: Historically, lenders have lost about 50 percent of the loan amount through the foreclosure process. This 50 percent figure seems high at first, but it makes sense. By the time the foreclosure occurs, the lender has already lost six to 12 monthly payments. Then they pay the costs of the foreclosure itself, any necessary repairs and the ongoing expenses of home ownership (maintenance, property taxes, special assessments, HOA dues, utilities, etc.) while they work to sell the home.

    During this time, they still aren't collecting any payments, and when the home finally is sold, it's at a significant discount due to the "as-is" nature of the sale and the over-supplied state of the market. Throw on top of all this the sales commissions (6 percent, minimum), incentives, closing costs plus the cost of the lender's own management of the process, and the 50 percent number starts to look cheap, particularly in light of the market's severe price adjustments.

    Now consider the FHA refinancing option from the lender's standpoint. They absorb the loss in the value of the home, but avoid all legal, administrative, maintenance, ownership and selling costs related to the acquisition and disposition of the home. Plus, they share in a substantial portion of any future appreciation in the home, and the FHA assumes all responsibility for any future losses that may occur. Effectively, they minimize their current losses, eliminate the risk of future losses and share in any upside the home experiences. Again, the choice seems obvious.

    This program is only available on owner-occupied home mortgages, and certain financial guidelines must be met. The government estimates that 400,000 mortgages totaling approximately $90 billion will be refinanced, but has authorized up to $300 billion for the program.

    The program has the potential to quickly and substantially reduce foreclosures of owner-occupied homes and significantly reduce the number of homes being offered as short sales (when the proceeds from a home sale are not sufficient to fully repay the loan). Short-sale homes listed on the valley's Multiple Listing Service represent 27 percent of all homes available. A meaningful reduction in this amount would go a long toward bringing our supply of homes for sale back down to attractive levels, potentially providing support for stabilizing and even increasing prices.

    Then there's the demand-building, first-time buyer tax credit. Under this component, first-time home buyers receive a 10 percent tax credit ($7,500 maximum) on the purchase of any home to be used as their primary residence. The credit is available on home purchases that close escrow between April 9, 2008, and June 30, 2009.

    This credit will actually increase the cash flow of many buyers. Let's say a buyer decides to purchase a home for $175,000. The down payment on this home with an FHA loan is $6,125 (3.5 percent). If the seller is willing to pay the buyer's closing costs -- a common practice in today's slow market -- the new homeowner will come away with the home plus the excess of the tax credit over the down payment, or $1,375. The credit must be repaid at $500 per year for 15 years, and no interest is charged. And if the buyer ultimately sells home at a price that doesn't fully repay the tax credit, the outstanding balance is forgiven.

    It's hard to imagine that people considering the purchase of their first home will not see the appeal of this program, or that they would think something better is in the offing. Given the limited time frame, entry-level home builder and bank-owned offerings should fly off the shelf and reduce the number of available homes for sale while, in turn, stabilizing or increasing prices. This will be especially true if the foreclosure bailout is successful in slowing the number of homes that come to market.

    This may even generate growth in residential construction employment. The home building industry has drastically reduced staffing levels because of the downturn. As a result, new home inventory levels are extremely low, especially for entry-level residences.

    What does that mean for first-time buyers? The new home they want probably hasn't been built. That's a six- to eight-month process, and the clock doesn't start until the contract is written. These buyers need to make decisions quickly if they hope to close escrow before the tax credit expires.

    The last, and in many ways the most important aspect of this law is the propping up of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The primary focus here is guaranteeing the flow of credit into the mortgage market, rather than to directly stimulate sales and reduce inventories. Even so, the certainty of knowing that mortgages will be readily available as activity increases will help build confidence in the market.

    The federal government has decided that the housing bust must end. It has put a tremendous amount of stimulus into the market to make it happen.

    Many prospective home buyers have been waiting on the sidelines, looking for signs that the Las Vegas housing market has hit bottom. Those people should listen closely to the local prognosticators, who are now saying that we are at or near the bottom, and keep in mind that those statements were made before President Bush signed all these programs into law.

    If they work anything like described herein, the turnaround is likely to be swift -- and the opportunity fleeting.

    Tom McCormick is president of Las Vegas-based Astoria Homes and McCormick Luxury Homes.



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    Richard wrote on August 03, 2008 10:40 PM: Devil's in the details

    this seems to be a good deal for the Gov. & the Banks but ,,, how's it such a good deal for the home owner??? it get's the Big boys our from under the bad loans they made & helps prop up, Artificial high prices on houses & again there going to get the dumb dumbs they sold the ARM's loans to , sign another great deal where they get to pay for the house & give all the future Appreciaton to the Gov & the Banks, how sweet it is. Question how much is the % percentage they want when you sell your home??? no one seems to be giving out that number??? just how much of the ( Future Appreciation) love the way he stated that, do you get to give them for letting you pay for your own house?


    In your WHITE face wrote on August 03, 2008 07:04 PM: What to be Baffled?

    1. TRILLIONS (yes, with a "T") goes to Blacks for mortgages, so yes some do get a free home in U.S. This scam has been going on for 40 years, since the 70s. Just google: Communitry Reinvestment Act (CRA). Banks are pressured to give loans to people who are high risk of default. This lead to Foreclosure Problem!

    2. More money from the rescue "bill" should go to Blacks, according to the Congressional BLACK caucus (which I never imagined could exist in America). Why? Because of their high risk of Default (not working etc)? Just google "congressional black caucus and housing bill".

    How is that for some Black History? You will never hear that in a classroom! And I am not a racist for pointing out FACTS. What I am is frigin SHOCKED. What non-equal!

    Who pays for this? In your WHITE Face whitey.

    Attn White Folk: Why support a system that does not support you?


    doofy wrote on August 03, 2008 02:25 PM: i doubt this is really going to help anyone


    Ed wrote on August 03, 2008 11:14 AM: Well put No Vaseline.

    Mike you got the house you wanted now pay for it.

    The best one can do is stay put and work to pay the house off as quickly as possible. Don't look around and think "Hey, I'm getting ripped off!"

    Those that lose their homes & ruin their credit will make good renters elsewhere.


    Herb wrote on August 03, 2008 11:10 AM: I agree with Mike. It isn't fair for deadbeats who don't pay their mortgage to get rewarded with lower interest rates. I am against bailout programs. Banks who make bad loans deserve to go out of business. Deadbeats who skip mortgage payments should be kicked out on to the street. I believe in the free market system, not the sorry situation we have now where nobody is allowed to fail. No I'm not a mean person. The fact is we can not maintain a system where nobody can fail, it's a total fantasy and it's leading to our nations financial ruin.


    Rodman wrote on August 03, 2008 10:22 AM: Mike Your comments are what has happened to many home buyers who were victims of the timing. It pains me to know I have done everything right, made all my payments; house, utilities, etc. and also am a victim. I am tired of supporting others, illegal and otherwise and have given serious thought to missing 5 or 6 payments, let my abode be repossessed, and then buy it back at the cheaper price. If the do nothing government has billions to throw around and bail out people who should have never been sold a home in the first place, then maybe it is time for them to start helping those of us who do things right. I would not be opposed to letting the goverment bail my ass out.


    Frank wrote on August 03, 2008 08:41 AM: In 2000, I moved to LV, had a home built for $180,000. In 2005, sold the place for $405,000. Who is the stuckee or the stucker? What happens when 250,000 jobs open for new employment and the housing market remains stagnant. How will that scenario resolve itself?


    Helen Weils wrote on August 03, 2008 08:10 AM: That's right, let's bail out the stupid banks that caused and continue to cause this fiasco. Of course, the bankruptcy act of 2005 which precipitated all of this is not mentioned.
    The public was raped with this bankruptcy law. Credit card interest rates are worse than Guido's.
    The bankruptcy court was stripped of it's power to do cram downs on mortgages. It's business as usual with the banks holding ALL of the cards.
    Democrat or Republican they are all whores to the Federal Reserve and the
    banks. What a disgusting mess.


    No Vaseline wrote on August 03, 2008 08:03 AM: Mike, If you had a brain in your head you would of realized that a 35% property valuation increase in one year was not realistic. I am sorry to hear that you purchased a home during that period..but you my friend are just like the rest of the suckers who jumped in and signed on the bottom line from 2005 on. You signed for it...will you stay in and continue to pay? Its at this point, up to you. Blame it on ones inability to pay, inability to recognize bubbles or other...but know in a capitalist society, you have the right to make decisions such as this...you should of seen this coming...most did...but 3% of the population did not...you are one of the 3%.


    Mike wrote on August 03, 2008 07:48 AM: And, for those of us that have stayed current on our existing mortgage, but paid a "premium" price for the home during the big upswing in the market starting about 4 years ago - we get squat.

    We sit in an "overpriced" home, and pay the accompanying mortgage payment, while, across the street, our "foreclosed" neighbors get the benefit of what sounds like essentially re-buying their house at half the price they originally paid, thus paying a substantially lower mortgage, for what in many cases is a very similar house in the exact same neighborhood.

    Yeah, that sounds fair.

    Once again, it's the people that work hard and manage to make all their payments on time that end up paying to bail out people that probably never should have bought a home in the first place, since they obviously could not afford it in the not-so-long run.


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