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ERIN NEFF: The Big 60 looms large for Democrats

Thanks to Karl Rove, American politics are once again focusing on numbers.

But with due respect to the consultant who became President Bush's right-hand man, Rove is missing the forest for the trees when he talks about polls suggesting Barack Obama has "finally" crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to be elected president.


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  • Those who actually use the current polls in all of the battleground states have Obama at 350 electoral votes. After all, Rove's been off before. (Remember 2006?)

    At any rate, the 2006 election is the best prologue for the number that really matters nationally (and more importantly, in Nevada).

    Back in 2006, Harry Reid did his best all election year to downplay the Democrats' chances to retake Congress. By October, he was fairly sure Democrats would pick up four -- and maybe, just maybe, five seats -- in the Senate. At least that's what he would say publicly.

    On Election Night, Reid suddenly had to start working the phones, building support within his caucus for his assumed ascendancy to majority leader. Democrats had defended all of their seats and had taken six away from Republicans. Not four. Not five. Six.

    Reid's subsequent time as majority leader has been something of a disaster for him at home. Becoming the face of the Bush opposition, Reid reliably ticks off anyone who still proudly displays his Republican voter registration on his sleeve. And worse, he's rankled activists in his base and upset all of those Democratic voters around the country -- people from Virginia to Montana -- who now have Democratic senators but thought the 2006 vote was going to miraculously end the war in Iraq.

    Reid has consistently responded to criticism from the blogs and the left by talking about the metrics of the Senate. His majority is the slimmest imaginable, he says. Joe Lieberman is never with him on the war and there's just no way to get anything done without 60 senators in his camp. That's the story Reid's been selling since rising to power after the 2006 elections.

    He might want to dial back on that a little bit -- it might come back to haunt him.

    I've talked to Reid three times this cycle about the Big 60. And each time he demurs when I ask him if he'll pick up the nine seats he needs to get there. But here we are, just 28 days from the election, and it's a real possibility that Democrats will turn the trick in the Senate this year. A new Minnesota poll suggests Al Franken might actually beat Norm Coleman, after all.

    Even worse for the Republicans is that Elizabeth Dole is getting kicked to the curb in North Carolina, and there are even indications in Georgia and Kentucky -- some of the most reliable red states -- that Saxby Chambliss and Mitch McConnell could lose.

    None of those Democratic candidates -- not Franken and not the candidates in the Kentucky, North Carolina or Georgia races -- was even among those introduced to the media by Reid and Chuck Schumer during a news conference in Denver during the Democratic National Convention. Instead, we got to see Democratic candidates from Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine and Virginia.

    As Reid introduced Schumer at that news conference, he said he was confident that each of the candidates on the stage had a chance to win. Schumer nervously came up and tapped the lectern, which appeared to be made of wood.

    When Reid starts naming states, he usually doesn't get to the magic 60. And that's fine, because most Americans are focused up ticket on the presidential race. But Schumer's committee, coupled with the Obama campaign, have been hyper-focused on 60.

    You want to know where Hillary Clinton's been? She's been working to raise money for Schumer's committee. So has her husband. So has Joe Biden. The solicitations go like this: "Give Obama a gridlock-proof majority." Or: "Join the massive wave of Democrats committed to electing a gridlock-proof Senate." Or a "filibuster-proof majority."

    On the other side of the aisle, Nevada Republican John Ensign might move up in leadership if he loses only five or six seats this year.

    Neither Democrats nor Republicans are talking a lot publicly about the chances of Reid getting to 60. But as the economy has been sinking, those chances have been rising. Reid isn't up for re-election until 2010. But you can bet he's praying for Nevada to go blue and for potential Republican challengers such as Rep. Jon Porter, Rep. Dean Heller and state Sen. Joe Heck to all lose their races this November.

    That's less probable, perhaps, than Democrats hitting 60.

    So what's 60 mean to Reid? It's either going to be a legislative dream come true or the scariest political nightmare.

    Right now Reid can hide behind the current "razor-thin" majority, as he likes to call it. With 60 seats, Reid wouldn't have any more excuses.

     

    Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.

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    Robert61 wrote on October 30, 2008 09:39 PM: Who really cares about Karl Rove? My gad, he'll be prosecuted eventually. Why? Because this treasonous character has ignored subpoenas and won’t testify in front of Congress. He runs a high risk of being held in contempt of court. There is mounds of evidence against him and even though he would receive a pardon from the President, it would be an enlightening affair to hear the committee members’ pointed questions. On my DECLASSIFIED SECRETS website I’ve written two articles on Rove. Scroll down until you come to “LOOSE LIPS, PINK SLIPS, BACK THE CIA & INDICT KARL ROVE”, then scroll down further until you rech “PLAME LEAK PUTS INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS AT RISK.”

    http://declassifiedsecrets.blogspot.com/
    I’d enjoy hearing your thoughts on the articles on the website or on this forum. Robert61


    Your childish, Erin wrote on October 07, 2008 11:18 PM: I know I used to get my blood pressure up when I read Neff's blatantly absurd musings, projected as an opinion column.

    She gets paid to do this. It's sort of akin to a little child acting out, badly. All of you posters see her opinion as skewed, and these responses don't make a hill of beans.

    Ms. Neff is self-serving and her currency is duplicity. I know plenty of existing registered Democrats who are voting for the McCain ticket. That doesn't included the ineligible: felons, non-citizens, the Dallas Cowboys or dead people.

    Erin, keep pulling those unfounded rabbits out of your hat.

    And further more, Barrack's facial expressions, between his speaking moments, during the debate, were positively comical.


    I'll do the Thinking Around Here! wrote on October 07, 2008 10:53 PM: "tbob," there is a space between the comma following "themselves" and your next word, "except." In your next sentence you make the error four more times.

    Similarly, there is always a space between the period that ends a sentence, and the next sentence.

    Capitalize the first letter of every sentence as in "Then . . . ."

    Also, "brain dead" is two words, not one, and you meant "cow patty" when you wrote "cowpaddy."

    "tbob" sez: "[progressives] don't know how to think for themselves.

    Interesting.


    apdp wrote on October 07, 2008 07:07 PM: Palin's Witch Hunter Terrorist says I did not cite sources in my post. Did the moron read it? Washington Post, London Times, Chicago Tribune, 'This Week' with Stephanapoulos with dates included. This jerk calls me a right wing screw ball. Listen idiot, I have voted in every election for many years. I am a registered Democrat and have voted for different parties candidates due to the individual’s integrity, ideas, and trustworthiness.

    You on the other hand talk the network line and obviously have never had an original thought in your head. You resort to name calling, which indicates to me you’re a little naïve person looking to false heroes to guide your way.

    Next time you start calling people names, think again and do a little research on your own that may shed some light on the candidates or give you the ability to repute someone’s post.


    One More Idea wrote on October 07, 2008 05:24 PM: The election is only about the economy and Obama’s solution is raising taxes,pull out of our trade agreements, increasing spending and nationalizing the financial industries.

    Of course Obama did just send his ECON Team off to come up with one more idea to save America by Friday.


    tbob wrote on October 07, 2008 04:58 PM: Notice all the liberals all say the same thing over and over?
    It's like they don't know how to speak for themselves,except when they go on attack mode.
    then it's a.m.radio,Rush Limbaugh,neo-cons,the same thing,never ends.
    They don't understand how rational adults can think for themselves.The dems in Nv.have already registered the Dallas cowgirls to vote.This is all we can expect from braindead,brainwashed,liberal,cowpaddy brains.
    It's like if they say it enough,they can believe it.It sure has worked.


    Correction wrote on October 07, 2008 04:17 PM: Correction: "HELENWEILS" cites paranoid sources, notably the ones who support more welfare for Israel.

    Those tax comparisons have been blown out the water in the past by Snopes. Who is "taxfoundation?"


    Palin's Witch Hunter Terrorist wrote on October 07, 2008 04:12 PM: The posts by "apdp" and "HELENWEILS" (who is really a man) and "Ken" (who thinks the Palin post below is humorous) all sound like those screwy, anonymous, right-wing e-mails that get recirculated throught the right-wing echo chamber.

    Notice that they don't cite sources.

    However, we see that the conservative National Review reports Palin's pal, Thomas Muthee (witch hunter) is a terrorist in every sense of the word, who not so long ago ran some poor woman out of her house in a witch hunt.

    How very Christian.


    James wrote on October 07, 2008 02:55 PM: It's one thing for John McToast to be burned to a crisp, but another thing altogether to have the US Senate move so far to the Democrats.

    Remember, just two short years ago the GOP controlled both the House and Senate, not to mention the White House. They had their way, preaching and practicing their small-government/deregulation right-wing ideology. And now look where we are.

    Today the Dow dropped another 500+ points. It's no wonder voters are about to drop the Big Hammer on McToast and his Republican cohorts.

    So it's bye bye, GOP. Oh, and don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out!


    HELENWEILS wrote on October 07, 2008 02:55 PM: BREAKING NEWS! Lastest Zogby Reuters
    poll, Obama is now only ahead by 2 points.
    Latest CBS poll, he's dropped from a 9 point lead to 5 point lead in one week.
    LATEST LATEST NEWS. ACORN IN LAS VEGAS
    JUST GOT BUSTED FOR VOTER'S FRAUD.

    PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO WAKE UP TO THIS HUSTLER!!!! YEEEEHAHHHH!!!!


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