Home subscribe manage Las Vegas Review-Journal
  Jobs Cars Homes Shopping Travel Weddings Golf Best of Las Vegas Photo   Search:

RECENT EDITIONS
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue

Opinion


ERIN NEFF: Forget the sideshows -- voter registration numbers tell the story

They are important sideshows in an otherwise circus-filled election cycle.

When Secretary of State Ross Miller's office led a raid of a Las Vegas community organization last week, numerous voters expressed outrage at the potential that voter fraud could tilt this year's election.

Newsvine Digg Fark Technorati reddit StumbleUpon del.icio.us Slashdot Propeller Mixx Furl Twitter MySpace Facebook Google Bookmarks Yahoo! Bookmarks Windows Live Favorites Ask MyStuff myAOL Favorites

Most Popular Stories
  • LETTERS: Professor needs to get with the program
  • LETTERS: Washington loves rewarding failure
  • FROM OUR READERS: We can't do worse than country's current leadership
  • LETTERS: Trickle-down economics is dead
  • EDITORIAL: Tip jar
  • VIN SUPRYNOWICZ: Shall we save the economy ... or the government?
  • LETTERS: Don't expect district to cut waste
  • EDITORIAL: Sending the right message
  • EDITORIAL: A tiny bit of good news?
  • EDITORIAL: 'A cautionary tale'



  • Then The New York Times suggested last week that Nevada was one of seven states in which actions by government officials or weak laws have led to numerous voters being cast from the rolls.

    While some states appear to be violating federal restrictions on purging voter rolls too close to a national election, Nevada was cited for too often checking up on Social Security numbers.

    Both stories created their own little election-year din.

    The Times piece sparked Miller to push back hard against what he called Thursday's misleading report.

    "I want to assure Nevadans that any suggestion that eligible voters will be denied their right to participate in this election on November 4th is false," Miller said. "Further, the article erroneously implies that every unmatched record represents one unmatched voter."

    If that were the case, Nevada's supposed shenanigans with false SSNs would involve more than 50 percent of all registered voters.

    Nevada has a law requiring any voter whose record doesn't match up to still appear on the voter rolls. Then the feds are supposed to sort out the difference.

    If neither the state nor the Social Security Administration can verify a person, the local clerk sends the voter a notice to try to verify the data.

    If the person does show up to vote, he will have to show ID before he casts a ballot.

    Seems like officials are jumping through an awful lot of hoops to ensure everyone is on the rolls, contrary to the Times piece.

    Meanwhile, the mess involving the community group ACORN has led to some people believing that folks who are ineligible to vote will somehow be permitted to cast ballots.

    Again, not true.

    So while both stories sure are noisy, the real thunder this week came from Washoe County's voter registration numbers. As it applies to the Nov. 4 election, nothing is more important in Nevada to both parties and both presidential campaigns.

    So let's get back to the real circus, no matter how grotesque the alleged voter fraud or voter purging might appear.

    The voter numbers in Washoe are stunning. The red northern county isn't exactly red anymore.

    As of the close of mail-in registration, the county was at a statistical dead heat between Democrats and Republicans -- each party has 39 percent of the electorate.

    The real numbers right now give Republicans a whopping 105-person edge countywide. But since people can still register until 9 p.m. Tuesday in Washoe, that could still flip.

    Washoe could easily flip Nevada -- and, who knows, maybe even the nation.

    Miller's raid on ACORN took place after the close of mail-in voter registration. Had he conducted the raid a week before, activists from campaigns and community groups seeking to register voters might have encountered resistance.

    But Miller's job is not to thwart voter registration, but to encourage it.

    So the timing of the raid didn't cast a pall over the last-ditch efforts by those registering voters. And statewide, Democrats really made strides.

    In the recent past, the GOP had mastered registration cycle after cycle thanks in part to aggressive courting of new residents and a strong marketing push. The story this year has been all Democratic.

    Democrats had 93,727 more voters at the end of September. It's likely that number will surpass 100,000 after Tuesday's official close of registration.

    The past two elections in Nevada were each decided by 21,000 votes.

    Assuming the political landscape is similar to what it was four years ago, this election might also hinge on what today would equate to less than a 2 percentage-point difference between the candidates.

    As of last week, most polls gave Barack Obama a 4 to 7-point edge in the state. With the margin of error, that lead is right on the past two election results -- only with the Democratic candidate narrowly beating the Republican.

    Maybe it's true that many of these new Democratic voters won't show up at the polls. And maybe the edge is greater than it appears.

    And maybe there is a 6-point differential between those who say they will vote for Obama and those who actually do in the privacy of the voter booth.

    One thing is loud and clear, though: Democrats have won the registration game.

    There are at least 30,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the 3rd Congressional District. There are more Democrats in both of the contested Clark County state Senate districts currently held by Republicans.

    Numbers don't mean everything, but they sure account for a lot.

    The start of early voting on Saturday will move the circus into a different ring -- the Get Out The Vote variety.

    And with Democrats holding such a large lead in the registration numbers, the Republicans have no margin for error.

    So go ahead and see the sideshows. We're getting close to Halloween, after all. But the registration numbers are the real numbers driving this year's circus -- and those who take their eyes off of that risk losing the election.

    Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.



    Leave Your Comment 14 Reader Comments
    Terms & Conditions
    The following comments are provided by readers and are the sole responsiblity of the authors. The reviewjournal.com does not review comments before publication nor guarantee their accuracy. By publishing a comment here you agree to abide by the comment policy. If you see a comment that violates the policy, please notify the web editor.

    Some comments may not display immediately due to an automatic filter. These comments will be reviewed within 48 hours. Please do not submit a comment more than once.
    Current Word Count:

    Johnathan L. Abbinett wrote on October 14, 2008 11:34 PM: "Sad Summerlin" - just so you know, I went into harms way for people like you (the first time) when I was just 18 - and when I came home I got called a "baby killer" (when, in fact, I did all I could to protect the innocent and risked my life doing so)!

    I've been called a lot of rude, mean, nasty things in my life - but, being called a "pathetic cretin" by you is a new one! As for being a "champion of causes of no one but myself and the misery of others..." - you have no idea who you're talking to, or about!

    I have actively supported the full Civil Rights of all Americans, including people of color - and women (when I could have sat at home and watched TV).

    When my country called, I answered the call to duty and went to war - to do what little I could to help the less fortunate fight for freedom and defend due desire for a democracy and tried to preserve these principles and peace.

    I lost track of how many times I've risked my life, taken the lives of our enemies or saved the lives of allies - and innocent children, women and the infirmed, disabled and elderly.

    Though I'm now severely disabled, I do still volunteer as much of my time as I can (on top of writing a column and blogging) - trying to educate the stupid, er, I meant to say "the low information" occupants, er, darn I meant to say "citizens" about how it is important to be patriotic about peace - and doing their duty to keep their promise to vets by fully funding the VA!

    So, please forgive my "gibberish" and no apology is necessary - O.K. - you betcha WINK!


    Johnathan L. Abbinett wrote on October 14, 2008 11:11 PM: "Sad Summerlin" please don't patronize me - and read more closely - you are guessing!

    Did you see the word "MOST" - that is to say not all Republicans are dispicable? Would it make you feel better if I said the same about "MOST" Democrats?

    RFK, Jr. recently said "95% of the Republican Party AND 75% of the Democratic Party are corrupt to the core and only about 30% of the people in Washington are there trying to do the right thing!"

    I thought you were a "conservative" Libertarian? Go ahead and cast your dynamic ballot for Bob Barr!

    Frankly, I've meant very few Republicans or Libertarians that truly "believe and want the best for everyone" - I mean, come on, do you really think anyone other than the delusionally in denial believe that?

    I absolutely do not wish harm on anyone that has earned an honest income and great wealth - it's the lying, cheating, thieves I disdain!

    As for your base-less comment about "bathing in the pain that people who have more than you have lost in this economic down turn..." - the two of us probably define pain very, very differently!

    Do you mean like the "pain" of having to down-grade from a Lexus, to an Infinite to a Nissan? Or, the "pain" of moving into a smaller house that you can actually responsibly afford?

    Perhaps you're talking about the pain of having no choice but to do business with legally licensed liars, cheats and thieves when trying to buy a home or vehicle?

    I suspect we define "misery" very, very differently also? Do you mean it like when you see your best buddy disappear in a violent red mist of blood and guts? Or, trying to save a child's life, holding them in your arms and watching them die?


    Sad Summerlin wrote on October 13, 2008 05:36 PM: Johnny Abbinett -

    I guess the difference between me, a despicable Republican, and you -- an honorable Democrat... is that I believe and want the best for everyone, and you just want to wish harm on those who have done better than you...

    Just read your note again... perhaps you didn't mean it (I will give you the benefit of the doubt), but it actually seems like you are bathing in the pain that people who have more than you have lost in this economic down turn...

    Keep spouting your gibberish... you have revealed yourself to be a pathetic cretin who champions the cause of no one but yourself and the misery of others...


    Johnathan L. Abbinett wrote on October 13, 2008 12:34 AM: "Sad Summerlin" the exit polls do have an effect on enthusiasm and encourages people to get out and vote - and when reporters are able to get some stats, it helps...so, you almost guessed it!

    And that goes for minor political party candidates too!

    Not all, but MOST REPUBLICANS, are DISPICABLE - but, then, I follow the facts very, very closely!

    Porter called the children of some of our anit-war protestors "paid political operatives" when, in fact, they were totally legitimate military family members and veterans - that was dispicable!

    History will record that Bush and the radical, right-wing, neo-con, nut-case Republican party was stupid enough to take the bait of Bin Laden (who we know is trying to bankrupt America) and the Repulicans economic myths cost us TRILLIONS and ruined MILLIONS of lives - and they will have to live with that well deserved, lousey legacy!

    Would you like the current body count of MIA, KIA, WIA statistics that the warmongering Republican party is directly responsible for to date?

    How about the 6,000 + Suicides that the V.A. has been covering up - or, the current estimate of Homeless Vets?

    On second thought, look it up yourself and that way I won't have to waste my valuable time "chatting" with an anonymous blogger.

    I do hope the value of your Summerlin home hasn't dropped too much - I mean, gee, there is certainly nothing more important in life than the value of upscale homes and the life-style of our wealthy Americans and their portfolio profits!

    Frankly, it will be ironic justice, for those Americans that begin to sacrifice and suffer like our Troops, Military Families and Disabled Veterans - welcome to the cruel realities of just day-to-day survival everyone!

    Gee, maybe greed is NOT good and there's good reason it one of the seven deadly sins? Who knew?


    Sad Summerlin wrote on October 12, 2008 06:40 PM: Johnathan -

    There must be something in the water because I can almost agree with your post again... aside from the typical "Erin is right" and calling Republicans "despicable"...

    EVERYONE MUST MAKE THEIR VOICE HEARD. VOTE EARLY. Get your friends to vote. Regardless of party affiliation, everyone needs to vote so that the will of the people is done this year. We need to send a message to our government... we are not the apathetic public they think we are. They cannot continue to pass legislation that benefits their campaign contributors, but not the general public...

    While I am not sure how voting early builds momentum for your candidate (since we don't get early voting results until Election Day --- only exit polls, and we all know how reliable those are)... still vote early so you don't have to worry about it come election day...


    your enthusiasm is underwhelming wrote on October 12, 2008 06:40 PM: Hey J.L. Abbinet, are you going to fly in from California, to back up your "public service announcement" posted below.

    Your slick.


    Johnathan L. Abbinet wrote on October 12, 2008 04:29 PM: Erin is right - AGAIN! Don't just sit back and enjoy the "side-shows" it's time to mark our calendars so we can start GOTV next Saturday, October 18th and volunteer through November 4th!

    Democrats should realize just how very desperate and dispicable the Republicans are, especially in Nevada, and they have beaten us, time and again, in GOTV (Getting Out The Vote) - so, it will take all of us to beat them this cycle!

    It is OUR CIVIC DUTY to register to vote, VOLUNTEER and VOTE SMART!

    I'll be voting DEMOCRATIC on Saturday morning, October 18th - and doing all I can to help others get to the polls through Election Day!

    Voting early is smart because it helps build momentum for your candidate of choice - and once you've voted, and the campaign's have verified you have voted - those pesky phone calls stop!

    Come on local Nevadans - find a few hours to volunteer - and demonstrate your dedication to duty by volunteering!

    Obama / Biden / Titus '08!


    Mama Bear wrote on October 12, 2008 02:50 PM: Well, Tim the Californians at least have collectively increased the cumulative I.Q. of the state and contributed a helping hand in alleviating some shallow gene pool ignorance.

    But, since logic is not your friend, this will not make any sense to you. Thank God for Californians.

    Liberals think, read, ask questions, and try to assimilate facts BEFORE making decisions. That's why they DIDN'T vote for Gibbons, the GOP or
    c-o-r-r-u-p-t-i-o-n, all of which is in bed together!!!


    You've missed the point, again and again wrote on October 12, 2008 12:21 PM: P.S. Why don't you explore, Clinton campaigning (for Clinton in 2012) in Pennsylvania.

    I love the fact, Democrats overlook, sabotage within their party ranks, then blame their inadequacy on uncontrollable factors.

    First of all, Hillary only campaigns for Hillary. She sabotage Gore in 2000, promoting HER campaign in 2008, on two factors: 1) If Gore won, who would vote for a Dem in 2008? 2) Hillary tied up campaign contributions, for her 2008 campaign, at Gore's campaign fund raisers, in 1999.

    Now that's perspective.


    John F wrote on October 12, 2008 12:10 PM: "The start of early voting on Saturday will move the circus into a different ring -- the Get Out The Vote variety."

    The Dems may have won the registration game, but as usual they won't win the turnout game. That's why - despite the poll showing Obama with a slight lead in this state - McCain will still carry Nevada. Those maps you see painting Nevada blue are wrong, I believe.

    The same story can be written in a lot of these states that people are giving to Obama, like North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. This is a much closer election than people would have you beleieve. Things may have turned Obama's way recently, but not that much. Your vote matters this year here in Nevada, probably more than it ever has or will. Make sure you get out there and have your voice heard during the next three weeks, even if you're voting for McCain. :-)


    Read All Comments