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VIN SUPRYNOWICZ: Why is failed Keynesianism back in vogue?

Fortuitously, I recently stumbled on a copy of Henry Hazlitt's "The Failure of the 'New Economics,' " 1959, reprinted 1973.

The "New Economics" referred to by the esteemed Mr. Hazlitt -- who replaced H.L. Mencken as editor of The American Mercury in 1933 and joined The New York Times in 1934, writing financial and economic editorials there and later a bylined weekly financial column well into the 1960s -- is Keynesianism, the economic doctrines of the Briton John Maynard Keynes which are still widely taught in American college economics courses.


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  • The top blurb on the back dust jacket panel caught my eye:

    "A great book, the best and most thorough exercise in economic demolition since Boehm-Bawerk exploded Marx's labor theory of value," wrote my late friend Murray Rothbard, in the National Review. "It is no exaggeration to say that this is by far the best book on economics published since Mises' great 'Human Action' ten years ago ... It will be read, and it will destroy the Keynesian system."

    Writing in the Christian Science Monitor, Ludwig von Mises himself said of this book "Hazlitt has entirely demolished the Keynesian misconceptions."

    In brief, Keynesianism -- as set forth by Keynes 73 years ago in his "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" -- holds that the twin answers to unemployment and economic downturns are massive government deficit spending and "cheap money" -- the artificial driving down of interest rates to "free up more credit."

    This is relevant because this precisely describes the massive and inherently inflationary market interventions that have been brewed up in Washington since the middle of last year, sponsored as enthusiastically by Republicrats as Demopublicans -- despite the fact that Mr. Hazlitt, way back in 1959, demonstrated not only that these Keynesian remedies did not work, but that they often had precisely the opposite effect of that intended!

    To "remedy" high unemployment, business failures and other symptoms of economic maladjustment, Keynes prescribed massive government deficit spending designed to keep wages and prices high, and the propping up of enterprises that would otherwise collapse in a heap of dust.

    Is there any doubt this is what the Bush administration started in the past several years, and what Barack Obama and the Reid-Pelosi Congress are now continuing?

    Look at the bank and mortgage bailouts. Look at the taxpayer cash being handed to two of the "Big Three" automakers, keeping their labor costs high, where a bankruptcy judge might hand the UAW nickels on the dollar, allowing wages to fall.

    At the risk of causing a readership long since convinced that exposure to even the most conversational snatches of "economic theory" is about as pleasant as dental surgery, allow me to cite here just the most succinct of Mr. Hazlitt's conclusions:

    "In Keynesian policy, unemployment is never to be corrected by any reduction of money-wage-rates," Mr. Hazlitt summarizes. "Keynes recommends two main remedies. One is deficit spending (sometimes euphemistically called government 'investment'). How good is this remedy? It was tried in the United States (partly because of Keynes' recommendations) for a full decade. What were the results? ... The central and decisive fact is that heavy deficits were accompanied by mass unemployment ..." in the 1930s.

    "The other main Keynesian remedy for unemployment is low interest rates, artificially produced by 'the Monetary Authority.' Keynes incidentally admits ... that such artificially low interest rates can only be produced by printing more money, i.e. by deliberate inflation. But we may let this pass for a moment. The question immediately before us is: Did low interest rates prevent mass unemployment? ...

    "In sum, over this period of a dozen years low interest rates did not eliminate unemployment. On the contrary, unemployment actually increased as interest rates went down."

    Hazlitt proceeds to demonstrate that from 1949 to 1958, when the same policy of artificially pushing down interest rates was tried, "the relationship of unemployment to interest rates is almost the exact opposite of that suggested by Keynesian theory."

    How could Keynes have gotten it so wrong?

    Easy. Hazlitt shows again and again that Keynes pronounced his theories "ex cathedra," without substantial statistics to back them up. Then, if actual statistics were produced that seemed to show results opposite to what his theories had predicted, he simply challenged the statistics!

    But why are Keynes' thoroughly debunked notions still in vogue? Why was the usually brilliant Murray Rothbard so wrong when he predicted this 1959 book would mark the death knell of the economic nonsense preached by John Maynard Keynes?

    This question appears at first a lot harder to answer. Henry Hazlitt, after all, was not some obscure gadfly. He was arguably the nation's best-known and best respected financial writer and commentator.

    I believe there are two answers. First, a dumbed-down American populace, trained to believe that economic theory is deadly dull and of no practical use, tends to cover their ears when such stuff is discussed.

    But the second reason is far more obvious. Imagine any of our egotistical and money- and power-hungry members of Congress or chief executives (of either party) today announcing, "Gee, this economic downturn sure is a misery. Too bad there's nothing the central government can do but to slash spending till our budget is in surplus so Washington is no longer crowding out private borrowers, meantime putting us back on the silver standard and shutting down the Federal Reserve. So all you lobbyists here to plead for special favors just might as well go home. Store's closed."

    What? Give up the greatest excuse since Hitler and Tojo for enacting every pork barrel spending spree they can imagine? Are you crazy?!

    Instead, what passes for "change" in Washington today are a chief executive and a Congress so desperate to place the heir-apparent to the guys who got us into this mess -- Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York -- in charge of their government monetary policy, that they avert their eyes and imitate Sgt. Schultz ("I see Nuh-think!") when it turns out their guy failed to pay tens of thousands of dollars in personal income taxes.

    Other Cabinet nominees get tossed to the roadside for neglecting to pay a few hundred bucks to a baby-sitter, but that's how desperate this gang is to keep the same desperate, crooked -- Keynesian -- crew in charge of our sinking economic ship, rather than bring in some outsider who might run an audit, throw open the door to the empty vault, and spill the beans.

    And they call it "change."

    Vin Suprynowicz is assistant editorial page editor of the Review-Journal and author of "The Black Arrow." See www.vinsuprynowicz.com/.

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    N.J wrote on May 05, 2009 10:16 AM: There are equal hazards to unregulated market economies as well.

    When a government prints money when it does not have the assets to back that money up, this is little different than when a speculative stock market drives the prices of shares up well beyond the total assets that the company would be worth if it went under and sold off all its assets.

    Speculative markets created by the excess money available to investors when taxes are too low is also a hazard.

    Even supply side economics states there are two points at which government revenues fall to zero. 100 percent taxation and zero taxation.


    Bob_Robertson wrote on March 04, 2009 05:08 PM: I'm impressed.

    FDR made the depression worse, so it's because he "wasn't funding enough". The problem started before FDR took office, so obviously Keynsianism wasn't at fault since Hoover was a Republican. (Hint: Hoover enacted everything Keynes advocated, and caused the problem in the first place)

    I love the idea that Bush "cut government". Is this really all the Keynesian's have to argue with?

    The entire basis of Keynesian philosophy, that it is possible to print wealth, has been debunked since even before Keynes published. It's all lies, damned lies, and higher mathematics to cover over the lies.

    Every problem ascribed in these comments to the "free market" was caused by Keynesian interference in the first place. There has been no deregulation, no privatization, no rolling back of government what so ever.

    Why not complain about the depression of 1921? Because there WASN'T ONE! 1921 saw the same magnitude correction as 1929, and no depression occurred because government did NOTHING, just like with all the corrections before.

    But 1929 was met with comprehensive action by government, intrusions, price controls, labor laws, and every effort possible to "prevent" a correction. And sure enough, 15 years after the Federal Reserve was established to "prevent depressions", the biggest depression of all.

    Why do the Keynesians conveniently forget these facts? Because they don't support the idea that government intervention "solves problems", so it puts the tax eaters out of work.


    Bill Smith wrote on March 03, 2009 05:53 AM: I can see Steve was “educated” in a government school. The federal government grew by leaps and bounds under Bush, about three times as much as Clinton. There has never been a free market in America. Why do the sheep still blame a myth?


    Paolo wrote on March 03, 2009 04:31 AM: Regarding the concept "Keynesianism works."

    That depends on what you want to accomplish. If your goal is a bubble economy followed by recession or stagflation, then yes, Keynesianism "works."

    Actually, any political system "works"; all you have to do is redefine your terms for what constitutes "working."

    The Soviet Union "worked", if you want a relatively well-off political class lording it over a helpless, half-starved population.

    Keynesianism has "worked" beautifully in the twentieth century at creating bubbles, crashes, and depressions.


    STEVE wrote on March 02, 2009 08:41 PM: Nice attacks on Keynesianism. The US GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008 contracted by 6.5%, a hallmark of depression, not recession. We need 8 more years of Bush so that he can accomplish more of the following:
    a. Reduce govt even more so that the banks may further bankrupt themselves, without the burden of govt oversight, by investing at a ratio of 1 to 32 using their mortgage holdings;and
    b. The economy may further contract so that we will become another Mexico.

    Then, with sprialling deflation pressure worse than what we experienced during the Great Depression, we would just need to pay 2 pennies to buy a copy of the Review Journal. I am championing this to support the libertarian, minimalist govt view of people like Mr. Suprynowicz.
    On second thought, I would take it back. Two pennies for a copy of the R-J would likely result in many writers like him being given a pink slip. Then, I would not be able to express my free speech in response to his articles any more.


    Bob A wrote on March 02, 2009 07:55 PM: In every year after FDR took office, private investment and GNP increased over what Roosevelt inherited, so his policies were certainly working better than Herbert Hoover's.
    But if the measure is unemployment, that's no way to prove that George W. Bush's policies were successful. Unemployment averaged 4.0 percent in 2000, before George took over. Unemployment averaged to 5.8 percent in 2008. Are those the policies you want to continue?


    Bill Smith wrote on March 02, 2009 09:02 AM: I see the parasites are still trying to justify theft and murder.


    johnnyBagpipe wrote on March 02, 2009 09:02 AM: John Gault wrote "Never have so many who were poor in the early 1930s been vaulted into the middle class by the 1940s."

    John, there was a war spanning this period, during this war a large number of people died - which resulted in a smaller post-war labor pool. You're also ignoring the GI Bill which gave the poor greater access Universities. College graduates tend to get better paying jobs.

    PS - I really don't like your screen name. If you want to borrow from Rand to argue for socialism you should have picked James Taggart.

    Walt - I like how you back up your argument that Keynesian economics works. "Keynes works. Everyone without an agenda knows this." I know what your talking about, I have saber tooth tiger replant - I know it works because I have never been attacked by a saber tooth tiger.


    Walt wrote on March 02, 2009 07:23 AM: Sigh. This is why the GOP is doomed. Having had all of their economic and social ideas blow up in their faces they are left with nothing else but trying to reignite arguments they lost 70 years ago.

    Keynes works. Everyone without an agenda knows this. You can cherry pick all the stats you want. Even if you manage convince a few partisans that don't do the basic research (or ignore what they don't want to see), it won't change the facts of what happened or make your arguments any less intellectually dishonest.

    What's so scary is that the conservative half of the political discourse in this country no longer has anything honest or fact-based to contribute! Until they do, they are giving the floor to the liberals without any realistic alternatives.


    Dave West wrote on March 02, 2009 07:10 AM: Vince, Thank you for your March 1 column re Keynes. It needs to be said again and again and again until the consequences are understood by enough people to reverse the direction of our present federal government. I urge everyone concerned with the present direction to advocate for State Sovereignty as a means to check the headlong rush to disaster by the idiots in Congress. A return to Constitutional Government is the only way that their madness can be stopped.


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