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EDITORIAL: Real estate bust

As of May, Las Vegas new homes sales were down 43.8 percent from a year ago, according to Home Builders Research. Sales of existing houses were off 34.7 percent.

Median new home prices have declined 4.4 percent, to $308,874. Existing home prices have slipped 3.8 percent, to $278,000.

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  • But with the inventory of homes for sale on the Multiple Listing Service reaching a record 23,642 in June, and about 40 percent of those sitting vacant, prices will have to fall considerably further before equilibrium is restored.

    "It's worse than I thought, considering I wasn't too optimistic in the first place," says Debi Averett of Phoenix-based Housingdoom.com. "Typically, June is rush hour for Las Vegas, as busy as you'd expect, and it's dead."

    Ms. Averett attributes most of the slump to the subprime lending meltdown. Defaults have been rising, especially among mortgages given to buyers with shaky credit. Nevada now joins California, Florida and Ohio as the states with the highest foreclosure filings.

    But that's not quite right. Lending to those who wouldn't have qualified for a mortgage under the "old rules" doesn't actually cause the supply of pricey new homes to exceed demand. It merely allows all participants to delude themselves for a while -- in essence, setting themselves up to walk a longer plank.

    Real estate consultant John Burns warns home prices in Las Vegas must now drop by 33 percent, or about $100,000, before the market returns to normal conditions. The housing cost-to-income ratio in both Las Vegas and Reno is now 50 percent, meaning people are spending half their income on housing, he warns. The national average is around 30 percent.

    Periodic corrections are inevitable. But both builders and real estate folks contributed to making this one more severe when they decided to start piling on incentives to lure over-optimistic buyers into signing up for more house than they could really afford.

    None of this marks the end of growth for the fastest-growing city in the nation. But as with the dot-com and day-trader booms of decades past, it again turns out there are no magic beans. A return to economic fundamentals was bound to occur.



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    Dan DeNuccio wrote on July 23, 2007 11:32 AM: Judging by the resources you used you were looking for the "if it bleeds..it reads response. Every market that encounters expeditious appreciation over a short two years is bound to correct itself however, it was a well known fact that Vegas property was undervalued for quite sometime. Prices will not drop by 33% or anywhere near that. Consider the 10% rule. If your resources don't know it then they don't know the Vegas market.
    If the media, yourselves included, would stop with all of their gloom and doom articles we might see a recovery a littl sooner but it seems you and all the others love to publish only the reckless trash talk about the Vegas and national market.


    Big Texan wrote on July 20, 2007 07:01 AM: Custom vs Tract Home
    Where are these 6000 sf tract homes for $300,000.00? Maybe 3000 sf for that price. What the general public is not aware of is that the true value is in the LAND..not the square footage of the home. The developer has to go through the exact same process as the custom home builder...and where they make all their profit is convincing potential buyers that a 3000 sf home on 1/15th of an acre is a better deal than a 3000 sf home on a 1/2 acre lot. It costs the same (if the land is paid for regardless of size) to build a 3000 sf home on 1/15th of an acre as it does on the 1/2...and once the developer has his rezoning to build more 3000 sf homes on less land, he makes a ton of money - and so does the Clark County Treasurer's office!! The value is in the land - it always has been.


    Alan wrote on July 18, 2007 01:25 PM: Chloe, I agree with you. I can see how county Government wants (not necessary needs) to issue permits, regardless of whether we need more new building, to bring in money! More permits = More money. How sad. There are soooooooo many unused spaces for lease, and there always has been. There seems to have never been a shortage of space, at least from what I have seen (I drive mainly along Charleston for years and many other areas). What happened the great RING AROUND THE CITY idea? What you are saying is that People need to be more RESOURCEFUL, not so wasteful. And, Government needs to stop wanting to profit, but actually not fear downsizing! Ironically, despite the market decline and inventory, I read how plans were approved for community near Kyle canyon road, OF ALL PLACES! Great, more cookie-cutter homes near Mt. Charleston. Errrrr


    alan wrote on July 18, 2007 01:04 AM: Steven G, you misunderstand lending, which bases rates on risk. Let's say you have money to loan. You want to be paid back, as do all lenders. You therefore lend to those who will most likely pay you back. All lenders want the good guy and therfore the good guy has more to chose from, thus lower rates. Get it now? Face it, some manage money better than others. That will always be the case. In many or most cases during a market decline, the lenders lose in foreclosure and not the borrower!


    Steven J. Grob wrote on July 17, 2007 04:00 PM: what is causing the problem is that the people who can least afford the higher mortgage rates are stuck with them. If they had the same rates as the perferd barrowers there wouldn't be 10% of the foclosure that there are. This whole problem was created by the mortgage industry and now its the middle class thats paying for it!


    Chloe wrote on July 17, 2007 03:39 PM: Alan:
    Yes, the builders have stopped or slowed down, but what I meant was to stop building permanently (or have at least a 10 year moratorium on new construction unless it's absolutely necessary, ie hospitals, police stations, fire houses) so there is some semblance of natural resources left for us to enjoy like the real desert, the views of the mountains and most importantly - water. Oh yeah - another thing: Until those responsible for building roads actually learn how to do them correctly, it would be wise not to build anymore so traffic doesn't get any worse.

    Payoffs!! LOLOLOL Why else do we have so many "home communities", "strip malls". I don't believe it's "supply and demand" anymore!! I mean, how many nail salons can one city have???? They finally completed a cluster of new buildings for office space up on Ann Road. If one-third of those spaces are leased in another year, they'll be lucky. The city governments KNEW we were headed for this "over building boom" years ago but yet - permits were still being handed out, one of the latest being that new master plan community in North Las Vegas. Now, WHY in heaven's name do we need ANOTHER 15,000 homes (and more strip malls with those nail places) that are going to ruin the view of those mountains, add more congestion, etc???


    alan wrote on July 17, 2007 02:43 PM: Chloe, you have only expressed what we have all read or heard about for the last 3-6 months. Builders have stopped or slowed down. Please elaborate on the "payoff" for permits? Will this be in the news? hehe


    Custom vs. Tract home wrote on July 17, 2007 02:36 PM: Tex, do you mean divide Price by total sf (home+land) to get price/sf? For example. Buy land and Build home: $600,000/15,000sf (incl. land)= $40/sf; Buy Condo: $200,000/1,500sf= $133/sf; or Tract Home: $300,000/6,000sf (incl.land)= $50/sf. The problem that most see with Custom: having to take the TIME to find land, hire architect, hire contractor etc. You hit it when you said: having the money available to build. Most don't. Land is not cheap anymore is it? And neither are contractors.


    Chloe wrote on July 17, 2007 02:29 PM: Here is a solution: STOP BUILDING NEW HOMES! No more massive "master plan communities" in Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson etc; no more subdivisions popping up in areas that should be zoned only for commercial/retail use. The list can go on and on. Seems like the area has enough inventory of homes to last for a couple of decades - we don't need anymore!! But I guess if the new construction stopped, those responsible for handing out building permits wouldn't be able to afford their luxury homes that the average person can only dream about!


    Beytovin wrote on July 17, 2007 02:15 PM: Big Texan-

    Where does the average person purchase a quarter or half acre in town anymore, for a reasonable price? I'll gladly unload my claptrap shack that I purchased BEFORE the bubble to some poor Californian. Seriously.


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